344
FXUS63 KGLD 081833
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1233 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast 1 to 4
  PM MT for locales along and south of I-70.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday and then again Sat/Sun.
  Severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over the Northern
Plains. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air over the Plains
feeding into the low.

For the rest of the afternoon the northwesterly winds will
gradually decline from west to east. During this timeframe there
will be a window for critical fire weather conditions over the
southern part of the forecast area. However confidence is too
low to issue a fire weather hazard at this time.

For tonight the winds will become north and remain light. A weak
cold front will move through around sunrise.

Thursday will be similar to today with light northerly winds and
similar temperatures to today. The upper level low currently
north of the forecast area will elongate to the southwest,
positioning itself over the Four Corners Region. During the late
afternoon a short wave trough will round the closed low. The
short wave trough may graze the western part of the forecast
area during the afternoon. However most of the rainfall will be
west of the forecast area.

Thursday night the rainfall chances will continue to be west of
the forecast area.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

For the weekend, warm and dry conditions will give way to more
unsettled weather as the upper cut-off low advances to the east.
There is some uncertainty with how quickly the upper disturbance
will move east with ensembles generally shifted towards the
slower tracks. Currently, some slight ridging is forecast to
grip the area Friday and Saturday which would allow for warmer
temperatures generally near or in the 70`s. Then, as the upper
low shifts east, the area will see chances for precipitation,
generally starting Saturday afternoon and potentially lasting
through Sunday evening. Severe weather is not expected at this
time as the cut off low would weaken the winds through much of
the atmosphere, keeping shear low. Instability is also forecast
to be low with the different types of CAPE below 1000 J/KG.

Next week has more uncertainty as there could be smaller
disturbances that move through the area as the cut-off low
shifts off to the east. Generally speaking, would favor near
average temperatures and small chances for precipitation given
the suggested pattern. There could also be a larger trough that
begins to develop and move through around the mid-week,
probably the next feature of interest if it forms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northwesterly winds will
gradually decline this afternoon, remaining light through the
night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL