870
FXUS62 KILM 180242
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1042 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will
bring unsettled weather through SUnday. Cooler and drier air
arrives Sunday night. Later next week will feature a warmup and
only a gradual increase in rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Not much changes needed for POPs overnight from the previous
update. Did tweak remainder of tonights hrly and overall min
temps upwards based on latest guidance and obs/trends.

Marine, lifting warm front to and across the waters will result
in wind directions veering from the ESE-SE to the S-SW. The sfc
pg remains rather lackluster with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt
except 10-15 kt at the initial ESE direction. Seas generally
around 2 ft, dominated by ESE-SE swell around 7 seconds.

651pm Update...
Latest KLTX and surrounding radar trends used to incorporate
hrly POPs thru midnight than meshed with ongoing fcst there-
after. Ltg difficult to come by given the observed low topped
pcpn, thus kept thunder limited to slight chance for tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Increasing WAA/isentropic upglide will cause clouds to
lower/thicken overnight. Some light rain should also spread
into the area from the south and west but guidance seemed a bit
fast as the lift if weak initially. This uncertainty sort of
translates into tomorrow`s forecast. Guidance varies
considerably regarding Saturday`s eventual destabilization and
our severe weather potential. With both a surface front and a
mid level vort and possibly a convective MCV there may be enough
forcing to overcome less than impressive instability. SPC
continues to highlight our area for SLGT mainly for winds. Shear
isn`t very impressive but heavy rain and wet microbursts seem
the most likely culprits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through
late Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. The same
arguments above regarding good forcing but poor instability
applies, though with rain somewhat widespread pockets of
sunshine that were possible Sat seem unlikely Sun. Cooler and
much drier air spills in from the NW Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday`s highs quite seasonable as a narrow area of high
pressure builds in but dewpoints barely above 60 will give a
much earlier in the Spring feel. The high moves east and upper
ridging builds Tuesday and Wed allowing for a warmup. The latter
part of the period will feature a bit more in the way of
moisture possibly supporting isolated storms caused by mainly
mesoscale processes. A cold front could lead to a more
substantial rain offering on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to dominate this evening except for ILM and possibly LBT
terminals being affected by low stratus around 1000 feet
(MVFR/IFR). Otherwise, mid level clouds dominate that will
gradually lower overnight to MVFR/IFR thresholds. Showers
should increase in coverage late overnight and continue thru Sat
after a WFP lifts northward. Move favorable parameters for
thunder occurs after the WFP along with some insolation poking
thru. Activity from the SW and a window of destabilization will
be enough for PROB30 groups to highlight the thunder threat Sat
aftn.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated
periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area
Sat night into Mon. VFR to mainly dominate Tue thru Wed while
an upper low remains just off the SE States Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... Light S to SE winds tonight with about a
category of speed increase on Saturday as a front approaches.
The sea state will be comprised predominantly of wind waves
with no appreciable swell, so we should add a foot to the upper
range on Saturday, 2 ft opening up to 2-3.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Pre-frontal flow regime will
see increase wind speeds as a front approaches Saturday night.
A fairly sharp wind shift to northerly occurs with FROPA Sunday
making for choppy, short period seas. High pressure keeps a
northerly component on Monday with abating gradient/seas. Light
NE winds Tuesday less from the high and moreso from a weak
offshore low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB