Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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192 FXUS64 KMOB 102103 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 403 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A loosely organized line of eastward moving showers and thunderstorms over the marine portions of the forecast area will continue to move south through the afternoon hours. Stratus over land portions of the forecast area will continue to mix out, with mostly sunny skies allowing for good afternoon heating, and temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s over inland areas. A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move over the forecast area behind a southeastward moving cold front currently near I-65. Temperatures around seasonable norms return for tonight and Saturday. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s well north of Highway 84 to low 60s south of I-10 are expected tonight. Saturday, temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s over Wilcox to Crenshaw Counties, with low 80s over our southern two tiers of counties with a continuation of dry weather conditions. /16 && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The short term forecast period will begin dry but will transition to a stormy pattern again by early next week. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeastern U.S. on Saturday night as subtle mid/upper level ridging shifts northward over the north central Gulf Coast. Dry and pleasant conditions will persist through Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 80s with continued low humidity. This brief dry period will abruptly change again as the upper level low pressure currently positioned over the Four Corners region ejects eastward as a positively tilted trough into the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Sunday night. The surface high will shift east off of the Southeast U.S. coast with return southeasterly low level flow gradually advecting deeper moisture and higher dewpoints into the forecast area beginning Sunday night as a surface warm front begins to lift north towards the coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop overnight and then become more widespread on Monday as the warm front lifts northeast across the area. We cannot rule out a strong to isolated severe storm by Monday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes along and south of the warm front combined with 40-50kts of mid level flow. By Monday night, a 100kt upper level jet streak will eject northeast from the Southern Plains into the Mid South as the mid/upper trough axis becomes increasingly negatively tilted. Large scale ascent will increase as upper level diffluence becomes enhanced and our area becomes positioned beneath the right entrance region of the upper jet streak over the Tennessee Valley and the left exit region of another subtropical jet streak along the Gulf Coast. Although there still are some subtle differences between the ensemble members with respect to the intensity of the mid/upper trough, both the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble clusters suggest the trough should be 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations below the mean heights. Also both model ensemble guidance indicate a strengthening of the lower to mid level flow across the central Gulf Coast. This along with guidance trending towards increasing probabilities of moderate instability and shear combinations, there is increasing potential for severe thunderstorms. It still remains too soon to provide specific details, but we will continue to monitor this closely through the weekend. There may also be an increased threat for flooding early next week with several rounds of storms expected. /JLH && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday behind the departing trough. There will be a brief period of dry weather for mid week as shortwave ridging builds. Another potent trough will approach by the end of next week with another threat for potential strong to severe storms. The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding may also continue to increase as the ground becomes more saturated. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A tightening of the pressure gradient between a developing surface low over the Plains and a surface high just off the East Coast will bring Small Craft level winds starting Tuesday night. A significant portion of area waters will see gusts to gale force beginning late Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching front through Thursday afternoon behind the front`s passage. There is expected to be a lull to below near the front`s passage. Winds will ease Friday into the weekend and become more variable as surface high pressure moves over the area. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 83 63 82 66 78 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 30 80 70 70 Pensacola 65 83 66 82 69 79 72 83 / 0 0 0 10 30 70 70 80 Destin 66 82 68 82 71 80 72 81 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 70 80 Evergreen 58 81 58 84 62 79 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 20 70 70 80 Waynesboro 56 81 60 81 61 75 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 30 80 60 60 Camden 55 78 58 82 62 74 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 20 70 70 70 Crestview 58 84 58 84 62 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 70 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob