Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area early this week gives way to a
weakening cold front moving through during Wednesday night.
Strengthening low pressure then passes offshore to our south
and east Thursday night into Friday, followed by weak low
pressure approaching from the west this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure ridges in from the NE. Somewhat breezy, mainly at the
coastal areas, with NE winds. Sunny today, except some cirrus
filtering the sun across eastern LI and SE CT. Highs around 50. Low
level moisture then pushes in from the east with clouds increasing
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shallow moisture trapped under an inversion keeps us cloudy Tuesday
through Wednesday. Weak isentropic lift arriving from the east
introduces a slight chance of light rain or drizzle over LI and
southern CT starting Tuesday afternoon. This threat then increases
and spreads west to the rest of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Moisture will be deepening west to east on Wednesday
ahead of a cold front. Threat of rain therefore trends higher
towards the western zones on Wednesday, but capped PoPs at 50%. Also
expecting areas of fog starting Tuesday night when the turbulent
mixing potential near the bottom of the low level inversion lessens.
We could be stuck with the fog well into the day Wednesday with
light winds and plenty of low level moisture.

High temperatures slightly below normal on Tuesday, then milder on
Wednesday with widespread 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening cold front will pass through Wednesday night, which will
bring the potential for some light rain. A wave of low pressure will
develop farther south along the boundary as an upper level trough
approaches. The low will strengthen quickly south and east of the
area with the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted. This
feature will bring light to moderate rain to the area Thursday into
Thursday night, with the higher chance for moderate rain across the
eastern half of the area. Guidance is in decent agreement showing
higher rainfall amounts for the eastern half of our area. See
hydrology section below.

The low will slowly exit to the northeast and keep the pressure
gradient over the area tight. Expect gusty NW-W conditions Thursday
night through Saturday, with periods of 30 to 35 mph gusts.

A quick moving shortwave approaches behind the departing system
along with associated weak surface low. Moisture and lift are
limited, with the higher values just southwest of the area. Stuck
with slight chance PoPs Saturday into Saturday night.

High temperatures wont vary too much through the long term period.
Highs will be right around or above normal, in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure noses down from the north today through tonight.

VFR.

Northeast winds today, with speeds increasing along the coast.
Gusts around 20kt-25kt are expected to develop this morning,
with the best chances at the coastal terminals. Winds and gusts
will also be the highest at the coastal terminals.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

Gusts today may be as much as 5 knots higher at KJFK and KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tonight: Becoming MVFR. Diminishing winds.

Tuesday: MVFR with a chance of light rain/drizzle. There is a chance
of IFR late in the day and Tuesday night.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of light rain and drizzle.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain.

Friday: MVFR with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for all but NY Harbor and western LI Sound today as a tighter
pressure gradient and stronger winds will be generally over the
eastern half of the waters. There may be occasional gusts to 25kt
for these two zones, but not enough to go with a SCA. Winds drop off
a little tonight, more so over most non-ocean waters, but given
elevated seas due to swell entering from the east, have extended the
SCA over eastern LI Sound through Tuesday. Gusts to 25kt also still
probable through at least tonight and perhaps into a part of
Tuesday. SCA on the ocean has been extended through Tuesday as well
for gusts and/or elevated seas due to swell. A gust or two to gale
force cannot be ruled out over the eastern ocean waters, but not
enough to upgrade to a gale warning. SCA on the ocean will likely
need to be extended into Tuesday night and perhaps even Wednesday
as a swell keeps seas elevated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Light to moderate rain is possible Thursday, mainly east of NYC and
the Lower Hudson Valley. NBM probabilities show about a 70% chance
for Long Island and Southern CT to see 1 inch of total rainfall and
a 30 to 40% chance for 2 inches. Given this will fall over a 24 to
36 period, there are no hydrologic concerns at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be increasing early this week with a full
moon occurring early Monday morning. In addition, with low pressure
remaining in the western Atlantic tonight into Monday and slowly
weakening, long period swells will be moving into the waters, and
winds will be from the northeast, both increasing water levels.

Minor coastal flooding is looking less likely along the south shore
back bays of Nassau and Queens during the Monday morning high tide
cycle, so have held off on issuing an advisory or statement. Minor
flooding is possible during the Monday evening high tide cycle, and
this could occur from the south shore back bays from western Suffolk
County westward all the way through NY Harbor. Not all guidance is
in agreement on the chance or the magnitude of coastal flooding. For
now, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for south Queens and south
Nassau Bays with the chance to issue more should guidance come into
better agreement, which would mainly hinge on how the offshore low
trends. Shores along western half of LI Sound may also see minor
coastal flooding, but have held off on issuing an advisory for now.

Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding will be possible for all
of the above mentioned locations for the Tuesday morning and
nighttime tide cycles, with possibly parts of eastern Suffolk County
reaching minor thresholds as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ332-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.