752
FXUS63 KPAH 121059
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another dry day today with highs reaching into the low 80s.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Monday into Tuesday, peaking Tuesday
  afternoon. Potential for severe weather and/or flooding is
  limited.

- After mainly dry weather Wednesday and Thursday, additional shower
  and storm chances return Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A mid-level ridge will translate across the region today with
surface winds becoming southerly. This will lead to warmer
temperatures as highs reach into the lower 80s. Humidity levels
remain low though, so overall a lovely day is on tap for Mother`s
Day.

A mid-level shortwave and upper low currently over the Southern
Rockies will drift eastward to the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday. This feature will provide our next rain chance. There is
some disagreement on the level of forcing present late tonight into
Monday afternoon, which leads to uncertainty on just how widespread
showers and storms actually will be. Tend to think there will at
least be some around, but perhaps more isolated to widely scattered.
This changes Monday evening and night and even more so on Tuesday as
the upper low moves closer and eventually overhead. Thus, Tuesday
afternoon should see our PoPs peak with numerous showers and storms
around. QPF amounts with this early week system look to average 0.5
to 1". Localized amounts exceeding 1.5" may be realized though.

As the early week system departs to our east, ridging building in
will lead to a mainly dry day on Wednesday which continues into
Thursday. Thereafter, a southern stream shortwave will pivot east
into the TN/OH valley`s by Friday. This will lead to another round
of convection Thursday night through Friday. Some guidance suggests
it could linger into at least the first part of Saturday, but for
now it seems more likely to be east of our region by then.

Regarding severe potential, it looks rather marginal with both
systems. We struggle to get appreciable instability on Monday
(MUCAPE only 500-800 j/kg and mainly confined to southeast Missouri)
despite respectable deep layer shear of 35-40 kts. It looks like
instability could increase on Tuesday closer to or above 1000 j/kg,
but then the shear decreases to barely 20-25 kts. Fast forwarding to
Friday, models struggle with the degree of instability and deep
layer shear that will exist. The probability of both appears to be
higher south of our area, but this could change.

Temperatures will mainly be in the 70s Monday through Wednesday and
then nudge up around 80 late week. Thereafter, ensemble guidance is
suggesting a warmer period is on tap for next weekend with highs
possibly reaching the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Mainly clear skies today will give way to increasing high and
eventually mid cloud tonight. Winds will be out of the S-SW
at 5-10 kts today and then become light S-SE tonight. An isolated
shower is possible tonight for KCGI-KMVN areas.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP