819
FXUS63 KPAH 151930
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances come back tomorrow through Saturday. Some may be
  strong to severe.

- Due to recent rainfalls, more localized flooding may be
  possible heading into the weekend with additional storms.

- Drying out and warming up Sunday into early next week. Highs
  will push into the mid to upper 80s with muggy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Shortwave ridging aloft is moving overhead today while yesterday`s
trof moves off to the east. This is giving us the chance to dry out
a little bit today through early tomorrow. Highs today still look to
be in the mid to upper 70s. With how wet we are at the sfc and how
light the winds look to be tonight, wouldn`t be surprised to see
some widespread, possibly even dense, fog develop.

Tomorrow a northern stream trof aloft moves over the upper Midwest
while a southern stream trof slides through the southern Plains.
Storm chances come back from west to east starting tomorrow mid
morning and really ramp up into Friday. A warm front will organize
just north of the area Thursday morning (this has shifted north from
previous model runs) which is allowing for MUCAPE values around
1,500-2,000 J/kg. EC/GFS bulk shear is around 25-30 kts but NAM bulk
shear is around 40-50 kts and mid level lapse rates are around 6.5
degC/km Thursday evening. SPC has a marginal risk for the area
Thursday and this looks warranted. Main threats look to be large
hail and damaging winds, though hodographs are showing a little more
curvature and elongation than previous runs (particularly Thursday
evening) and so a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Friday the second trof aloft starts moving into the region. The EC
keeps this more of an open wave whereas the GFS closes off a low
inside the trof. As this feature approaches, more widespread rain is
expected Friday into Saturday. From Thursday through Saturday PWATs
still look to be around to slightly above average. Therefore in
conjunction with recent rains, localized flooding may become an
issue and a flood watch may be necessary. WPC has a slight risk over
the area for excessive rainfall on Friday. In terms of severe
threat, SPC has a marginal risk for the eastern half of the area on
Friday. Severe parameters look to be on the weaker side, but are
likely underdone in close proximity to the low. Rain is expected to
end Saturday evening. In all, QPF amounts from Thursday through
Saturday look to be around 1"-2" with locally higher amounts
possible.

Sunday ridging aloft takes over and helps to dry us out for a couple
days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s (pushing 90 in a few
places) with dewpoints in the mid 60s to start off the week.
Another broad shortwave looks to move through Tuesday into
Wednesday and brings back some precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

MVFR cigs are going to hang around for the next few hours
before lifting to VFR. Scattered mid level clouds will be
around through sunset and then some scattered high clouds will
move in overnight. With as wet as we are from the last couple of
days, there is a good chance for fog tonight as winds go nearly
calm overnight. KEVV and KOWB could see a stray shower or
thunderstorm later today, but too scattered in nature for
inclusion in the TAF.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY