650
FXUS62 KRAH 190743
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
341 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across southern NC and SC Sunday
morning. High pressure will follow and extend across the southern
Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Saturday...

Surface observations as of 01z show a sharp theta-e gradient from
north to south as a front extending from near Charlotte eastward
towards Fayetteville and just south of Clinton and separates
temperatures in the mid 70s to the south from low/mid 60s to the
north. Regional radar shows mostly showers and isolated storms along
the front with trailing stratiform precipitation back into cooler
air behind the front. This front is expected to sag south through
04/05z and shift the lingering instability and associated showers
and storms out of the area while stratiform rain and an isolated
rumble of thunder may linger for a few more hours into the night. A
compact 500mb shortwave visible in WV imagery over the lower
Tennessee Valley will slowly pivot east-southeast and support
continued showers along the front through the night, but should
mostly be south of the forecast area.

Areas of low overcast may continue to lower through the night and
lead to some patchy fog, most likely in the northern Coastal Plain
into portions of the Northeast Piedmont. Expansive low cloud cover
will keep over night temperatures relatively steady through the
night behind the front with lows in to low 60s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM Sunday...

Under mid-level ridging, cool nely flow will continue on Monday as
high pressure extends down the eastern seaboard. Dry weather is
expected with some continuation of stratocu likely through the early
evening. Low-level thicknesses will rebound a bit compared to
Sunday, but temperatures will still top out a few degrees below
normal in the mid to upper 70s.  Dry weather and cooler overnight
lows in the mid 50s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 AM Sunday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging will largely
hold over the eastern US before shifting offshore through Wednesday
evening. The next series of upper troughs will then lift through the
Great Lakes Thursday and potentially the TN Valley on
Friday/Saturday.

Tuesday through Wednesday: By Tuesday, the air mass will start to
moderate some as flow turns a bit more ely, and then sely/swly
Wednesday into Thursday.  However, overall Tuesday and Wednesday
should be dry with temperatures warming into the lower to mid 80s.

Thursday through Saturday.  Ensembles continue to suggest the
potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from
the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an
upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level
energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our
northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day.
However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears
to stay well to our north, and thus as of now will maintain just
slight chance to low chance POPs during this time.

From Friday onward, there is a bit better agreement amongst
ensembles simulating a potentially potent short wave riding through
the TN Valley and eventually over central NC through Saturday. Still
a bit far out to get into specifics, but This setup could provide a
bit better coverage in showers/storms for our area early this
weekend.

There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will
exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday.  The quartile spread
widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing
solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely
remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Widespread, generally IFR ceilings throughout cntl NC this morning
will lift through MVFR after 14-15Z and scatter to VFR from
northwest to southeast - first at INT/GSO and latest at FAY.

Looking ahead: After a return to VFR conditions this afternoon,
lingering boundary layer moisture could result in sub-VFR cigs again
late tonight and Mon nights. Otherwise, expect largely VFR
conditions Mon through Wed. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions
will be Thu/Thu night with cold front and associated chance of
showers and storms.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS/KC