Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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877 FXUS63 KUNR 081744 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1144 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool and unsettled through Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. -Snow showers in the higher Black Hills with some accumulation possible this morning. -Warmer and drier for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 The large upper low, currently centered over southwestern North Dakota, will sag southward across the forecast area today. Instability associated with this system will produce scattered to numerous showers today through Thursday. MUCAPE will reach 100-200J/KG (highest toward south central SD) this afternoon, so along with the showers, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Periodic bands of drier air will wrap into the region, at times bringing breaks to the bands of showers, but it is difficult to determine the exact timing and location of any of those features today. The highest PoPs today will be to the west of the upper low, over northeastern Wyoming, with slightly lower PoPs toward central SD. Northerly winds will be breezy at times through Friday until an upper ridge builds toward the northern Plains from the west, which will result in warmer weather through the weekend. Although conditions on Friday and Saturday will be drier, there will be low chances for showers, mainly over the Black Hills. On Sunday, there is a better chance of showers, and a few thunderstorms, over and near the Black Hills, extending into southwestern SD, as weak impulse cross the region in northwesterly flow aloft. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for Monday through Wednesday as the ridge shifts off to the east and an upper trough affects the northern plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Areas of rain showers (snow in the higher elevation areas of the Black Hills) will continue on and off through early Thursday morning. Mainly IFR conditions over northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD will continue. These conditions will persist through early Thursday morning, with conditions slowly improving after that. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected across southern SD, mainly south of Interstate 90 and the Black Hills. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10 AVIATION...15