Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 020526
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
DECREASING WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE WELL INTO MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED BACK IN THE COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING. PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE FIRST
FLAKES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THIS
CWA. WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...TEMPERATURES BELOW THIS LEVEL APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE MAINTAINED THE
LIQUID PRECIP FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE NEARING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONS OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE...AND HOW WELL WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL INTO THE
HARD FREEZE CATEGORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA HOWEVER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DETAILS...BUT SOME SORT OF FROST OR FREEZE
HEADLINE MAY BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS...MAKING FOR A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A
RETURN...AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH NO REAL STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES AROUND TO FOCUS
PRECIPITATION ON...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD
DRY AT THIS TIME.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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