Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 302039
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1239 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LOW CENTER JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY AND DISSIPATING MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR BARROW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY MONDAY EVENING. A
WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND...WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTHERN ALASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINE DELTA JUNCTION-50
MILES EAST OF NORTHWAY THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND EXPANDS WESTWARD.
TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY EVENING WILL LINE ALONG A LINE 50 MILES
EAST OF ANIAK-TANANA-60 MILES NORTH OF FAIRBANKS-40 MILES SOUTH
OF EAGLE. THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROUGH AXIS MONDAY EVENING WILL
LINE ON A LINE 50 MILES EAST OF ANIAK-100 MILES NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS-120 MILES NORTH OF EAGLE. A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
80N 120W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 80N 135W BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST...LOW STRATUS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AREAS OF FLURRIES AND FOG.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND INLAND AREAS OF ZONES 212 AND 214.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS OF THE INTERIOR
AND INLAND WEST COAST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTON SOUND. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTERIOR WITH SURFACE-500 MB LIFTED INDEXES AS LOW AS
-3 AND SURFACE CAPES 100 TO 200+ J/KG.J/KG.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR AND INLAND WEST COAST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTON
SOUND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CAPES 100-300+J/KG AND
SURFACE-500 MB LIFTED INDEXES AS LOW AS -3.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MOST INTERIOR AREAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR WITH SURFACE-500 MB LIFTED INDEXES AS LOW AS -4 AND CAPES
100=400+ J/KG.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS
CURRENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY WARMISH WEAK FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS TO A
WESTERLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WHICH WOULD BRING IN MORE CLOUD
COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RH MAINLY 22-37 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE MONDAY...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
REDEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT
AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEE MAIN DISCUSSION
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

&&

$$

RF APR 16


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