Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 182316
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern continues along the Arctic Coast today.
The main forecast challenge for this shift is movement of two
lows west along the Arctic Coast and eventually southward along
the west coast of Alaska. There is some disagreement between the
models on exactly how this will transpire. Previous shifts have
favored the GFS, a trend that we will continue with our forecast
package this afternoon, particularly after the first 12 hours.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 493 dam low 350 NM NE of Deadhorse will move
to 100 NM N of Wainwright by 4 AM Thursday and to near Point Lay
by 4 PM on Thursday. By 4 AM Friday the low will be situated over
Kotzebue Sound and by Friday evening it will sit over Nome. By
early Saturday the low will become an elongated double barrel low
with one center over Nome and the other near Scammon Bay. This
double barrel low will rotate around over the Yukon Delta into
early next week. As the low moves southward the flow over the
eastern Interior will become more southerly allowing warmer air to
move in aloft.

At the surface, a 991 mb low near Deadhorse will move to 100 NM
NE of Nuiqsut by 4 am Thursday and to 50 NM NE of Barrow by 4 PM
Thursday. By 4 AM on Friday this low will be 75 NM NW of Point
Lay and By Friday afternoon it will be located over Wales. An 998
mb low 140 NM N of Wainwright will move to 100 NM N of Wainwright
by 4 AM Thursday at 992 MB and to 40 NM E of Point Lay by 4PM
Thursday. By 4 AM on Friday this low will be located near
Shishmaref at 989 mb and by PM on Friday it will be located near
Emmonak at 987 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: The low that is currently near
Deadhorse will bring snow and blowing snow to zones 203 and 206
tonight before it moves off to the west. I opted to issue a winter
weather advisory for both zones 203 and 206 for tonight. Winds
will die down by morning as the low moves north and eventually
west. I opted to cancel the ongoing winter weather advisories in
zoned 201, 202 and 205. Winds in these areas have died down and
the reduction in visibility needed for a winter weather advisory
is not expected to continue tonight.

Central and Eastern Interior: An occluded front associated with a
low in the Gulf of Alaska will ride up over the cold air of the
Southeast Interior tonight and Thursday. This will cause 1-2
inches of snow over zones 223, 224 and 226 through Thursday with
NW winds gusting to 20 mph. As we go out into Friday and Saturday
the flow aloft becomes more southerly, this will help to keep
precipitation across the Interior to a minimum.

West Coast and Western Interior: With the low diving
southward Thursday expect increasing showers, particularly along
the coast. The upper low will move to the Yukon Delta by Friday
night where it will remain in place through the weekend which will
help to keep the showery conditions in place. As the low moves
south, the winds will increase through the Bering Strait Thursday
night and and along the coast south of the Bering Strait on
Friday. The exact details of this will depend on the track of the
low, which the models have not been handling that well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Winds could turn NW
tonight,Thu and again Fri over Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea
Coast, but at this time it looks like strong winds and elevated
surf will remain west of Shishmaref.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ206.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

OCT 17



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