Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 310917
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 AM AKDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF DRY SPELL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA IS COMING TO AN END AS
A WEATHER FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SPREADS RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH SLOPE ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC TROUGH WILL
MERGE WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A BROAD OPEN TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AFTER THAT BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE
TO REBUILD OVER THE STATE LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE
BERING SEA RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST AND SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD. A WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST AND INTERIOR TODAY AND KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TANANA YUKON UPLANDS INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OUT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BUT NEARLY
EVERYWHERE WILL BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BRING HUMIDITIES BACK UP BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE INCOMING RAINFALL WILL BE DISTRIBUTED OVER SEVERAL DAYS AND
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TANANA YUKON UPLANDS WHERE 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH LIKELY
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC AS
WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP JUL 14



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