Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 262221
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016
Models continue for the most part to be in agreement and thus
higher confidence in the forecast within the first 72 hours as the
upper level high pressure developing over the Yukon Delta today
moves towards the Seward Peninsula by Saturday night. There is
some divergence between the GFS, NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF by
Sunday in placement of the upper level high pressure system as it
starts to move northwest towards Wrangle Island. The ECMWF shows
an upper level low developing on Tuesday over Banks Island where
the GFS develops this low pressure system later and further west.
Main point in short term is that it will be warmer and drier
conditions across much of the state. At the surface a thermal low
and trough will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and
strengthen slowly through the weekend.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Latest VIIRS satellite imagery and
web cameras showing the stratus deck extending from Wainwright to
Barter Island. Expect the typical fog development overnight
tonight but not to the extent of dense fog criteria. Showers will
also push northeast from Wainwright towards Barrow this evening
then diminish. Easterly surface winds will increase Saturday
through Monday with likely issuance of small craft/brisk wind
advisories for marine areas extending from Point Lay through
Demarcation Point as the surface pressure gradient tightens along
the North Slope. Winds will decrease from west to east as the
Arctic surface high pressure Banks Island.
West Coast and Western Interior: Relatively quiet weather as the
showers continue to diminish with high pressure building over the
Yukon Delta area and moving toward Seward peninsula. Winds will
become light as warming temperature trend begins and expected
through middle next week.
Central and Eastern Interior: Although the widespread
precipitation amounts with this past system were lower with 0.05
to .20 inches, the highest amounts of 0.50 to 0.60 were seen in
the Upper Chena River and Birch Creek River basins. However, the
amounts will insignificant for river rises. Expect showers to
diminish this evening over the Fortymile country. As mentioned the
warmer and drying trend to occur over holiday weekend. Any shower
activity on Saturday will be confined to isolated showers south of
Chicken with no thunderstorm activity expected.
.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will begin on Friday
and will continue into the middle of next week. A weak thermal
trough will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and
persist through the weekend. No significant thunderstorm activity
is expected through the weekend.
The flood watch for the Colville River was cancelled this morning
since majority of the ice within the channels have melted. There
may be some fluctuations of the Colville River with potential
remaining ice coming downstream but not a great concern for
impacts. As temperatures warming through weekend...there will be a
concern for increased water rises on the Colville River. Elsewhere
the snowmelt along the rivers over the weekend should not be much
of a concern.
MAK MAY 16