Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 191633
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
733 AM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high amplitude long wave ridge over Alaska and trough over the
Bering and NW Pacific will become more zonal through the week as
a series of very strong short wave troughs move NE across the
bering Sea and Alaska the next several days. This will keep
northern Alaska in a warm, wet and windy pattern the next several
days.

Surface...
A 990 mb low west of Wrangel Island will drift northwest. A front
from this low to Prudhoe Bay to Northway will move to the Alcan
Border by 3pm today. Light snow with this feature will end west of
the front.

A 960 mb low in the central Bering Sea will move to Cape Navarin
as a 964 mb low by 3pm mon, to 200 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne
as a 988 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to 300 nm northwest of Barrow as a
999 mb low by 3pm Wed. The front with this low will move along the
West Coast today, to Barrow to mcGrath by 3am Tue, and to the
Alcan Border by 3am Tue. Expect 4-8 inches of snow with this along
the west Coast and Western Interior today, and 1-2 inches with it
over the Eastern Interior Tue. SE Gales ahead of the front are
causing blizzards along the Coast today through Tue.
The poison tale following the low center will move over the West
Coast tonight causing south winds gusting 50-90 mph with the
highest winds over the Western Capes.

A third low will move north into the southern Bering Sea Tue
night and to the central Bering Sea on Wed.


.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. At the surface the low just NW of
Wrangel Island is about 4 mb deeper than models at 06Z, and the
surface high over the Copper River Basin is about 4 mb stronger.
Main low in the central Bering appears to be well initialized at
06z. Will see bit stronger winds through Alaska Range passes
today than models shows as a result of the high pressure being
stronger than models indicate.

Models generally in agreement through 3am Wed, then the GFS moves
the next Bering Sea low northeast faster than the ECMF and NAM.
At this point favor the slower NAM/ECMF solutions for Wed. Models
diverge on strength and timing of short waves after Wed, but one
certainty is that the progressive westerly flow pattern will
continue through the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

$$

FEB 18


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