Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 241147
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2016
Models...Continue to perform well in the short term with some
spread in solutions as they move into the mid range, and
significant spread in the extended periods. All indications are
pointing to a active weather pattern over the Bering Sea and west
coast for the foreseeable future with systems moving through the
area every 2 to 3 days. Not much to change in the short term
forecast so will be making only minor edits to forecast database.
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge with 540 dam heights that extend north
over the Arctic offshore waters has an axis that lies from King
Salmon to Tanana to Barrow and northwest this morning. The ridge
eventually gets pushed a bit to the east late in the week and a
549 dam high is cutoff and slides over the Northern Yukon
Territory with ridging over the Beaufort Sea. A 500 dam low over
the northeast Kamchatka coast has a trough extending northeast
over the Gulf of Anadyr to St lawrence Island to Nunivak Island
this morning, and will move to lie from Wrangel Island to Point
Hope to Golovin to Bethel this evening, and continues to weaken as
it moves over the ridge to lie from the central arctic Kuparuk to
Beaver by Tuesday morning, then moves east over Canada. The low
will continue to deepen to 488 mb as it moves to central Siberia
by Tuesday morning. A second much stronger trough will move over
the western Bering Sea this morning, and over the central Bering
Sea this evening, and by Tuesday morning will lie over the western
Gulf of Anadyr to St Matthew Island to the Pribilofs to Seguam
Island. By Tuesday evening the trough will lie over the north
coast of the Chukotsk Peninsula and the Bering Strait to a
developing low over Emmonak, and by Wednesday morning it will be
over the northwest coast as it pushes over the top of the ridge.
Yet another trough will have developed and moved to the central
Bering Sea and Aleutians by Wednesday morning and as it moves east
a 525 dam low will develop south of the Alaska Peninsula by
Wednesday evening with the trough extending back over St Matthew
Island to the low over Siberia, the low will continue east into
the northeast Pacific and the trough will continue up the coast as
it works its way over the ridge. Yet another strong trough will
move to the eastern Bering Sea Friday, but models are still a bit
sketchy on the details with this one. At 850 hpa...Warming trend
will continue through Tuesday morning, then temperatures are
relatively stable the reminder of the week. Models still
indicating around 75 kt of wind over St Lawrence Island with the
first storm Tuesday and are indicating another round of around 70
kt winds over the island Thursday.
Surface...High pressure will remain over the central and eastern
interior with 1031 mb centers slowly weakening through the week.
In the Bering Sea there will be plenty of action as several lows
move through the eastern Bering Sea with the first one moving
through the area tonight and Tuesday followed by another low on
Thursday. They will all bring some significant winds with them
with the strongest winds over St Lawrence Island and the Bering
Strait coast. A 948 mb low will move to the northwest Bering
Sea this afternoon, then into Siberia. A weather front associated
with this low will move to the central Bering Sea and central
Aleutians this afternoon, and to the eastern Bering Sea by
Tuesday morning. The extra tropical remnants of Typhoon Haima will
move along the weather front Monday night and merge with the low
near the Gulf of Anadyr early Tuesday morning. The weather front
will move over the Bering Strait and west coast by Tuesday
afternoon, then stalls and eventually dissipates over the western
interior late Wednesday. A very strong pressure gradient will
develop over the Bering Sea and west coast Monday evening through
Tuesday evening. A series of fronts will move to the west coast
through the week with the same trajectory bringing periods of
strong winds to St Lawrence Island and the coastal areas.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ridging has built over the
eastern arctic with a strong low pressure system over Siberia
will be sending weather fronts into the Chukchi Sea and western
arctic the next several days. Strong winds southwest of Point Lay
the next several days will be gusting to around 50 mph at times.
Weak leeside trough developing over the eastern arctic coast
today. Winds turning from the southeast for most areas as the
trough sets up over the coast with wind speeds generally 5 to 15
mph. Temperatures slowly warming through Tuesday. Expect marine
stratus to stay offshore the next few days.
West Coast and Western Interior...Winds are gusting to around 50
mph in the Bering Strait this morning as the first of several
weatehr fronts moves through the area this week. Winds will
diminish a bit this morning, then start picking up on St Lawrence
Island and in the Bering Strait this evening with winds
potentially gusting to around 75 mph tonight and early Tuesday.
Winds diminish late Tuesday through mid day Thursday, then start
picking back up with winds potentially gusting to around 70 mph
Thursday night and Friday morning. Expect some showers over the
lower Yukon Delta and Seward Peninsula this morning as the front
dissipates over the area. The next front will spread showers to
the area west of Galena Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures warming a bit as south flow brings warm air north.
Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear in the interior
through the week, but there may be a period when some high clouds
move through the central interior Wednesday. Warming temperatures
during the day, but with clear skies and good radiational cooling
at night expect the lows will not change much this week unless we
get some clouds into the area. Generally light winds in the
interior from the east and northeast.
Coastal Hazards through Tuesday...Extra Tropical Storm surge
product at 24/00Z indicating 2.6 feet of surge Tuesday at 0600
akdt around Gambell. Along the west coast surge values around 4.0
feet in Port Clarence could impact Brevig Mission from around 1000
am akdt into the late afternoon Tuesday. Will cancel the Coastal
Flood Watches and issue HIgh Surf Advisories for the west coast
zones south of the Bering Strait.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Models have backed off a
bit on the surge values for the next storm moving into the area
on Wednesday night and Thursday so will hold off on issuing
anything for now. Several more storms will move through the
eastern Bering Sea through the end of the month keeping the area
High Surf Advisory FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.
High Wind Warning FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.
Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.
Gale Warning FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
SDB OCT 16