Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11


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