Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










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