Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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959
FXUS61 KALY 291150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS AN THE
APPROACH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATES 88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV



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