Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
FXUS61 KALY 031143
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
643 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
A frontal passage and upper level trough will push through the
region tonight. A period of rain and snow showers, along with lake
effect, to impact portions of the region through tonight. A brisk
northwest flow with residual snow showers and flurries continue into
the start of the weekend with improving conditions expected
toward the second half of the weekend. Then a chance for light
snow increases Sunday night into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 530 AM EST...Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies along with some
lake effect snow showers prevailed across the forecast area. The
snow showers were mainly across the Schoharie Valley and eastern
Catskills as well as downwind of Lake Champlain. Temperatures were
in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
For today...Expect generally partly sunny skies in the valleys
with a continuation although decreasing chances of snow showers
across the mountains as flow backs off to the north and west and
inversion heights lower. Skies across the higher terrain will
generally be mostly cloudy to cloudy through the day. There may
be some Champlain effect for a time this morning off the south end
of Lake Champlain across portions of Washington and Bennington
counties. Little in the way of snowfall accumulation is expected
today with perhaps an inch of additional snowfall from Old Forge
to Raquette Lake northward. Highs today will range from the upper
20s to lower 30s northwest to the low to mid 40s southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...Any lingering snow showers will come to an end as
flow starts to become anticyclonic with high pressure moving east
from the eastern Great Lakes. Lows will be in the upper teens to
On Sunday...Expect dry and mainly sunny skies as a large ridge of
high pressure crests across the region. Highs will range from the
upper 20s and lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
For Sunday night and Monday...A trough of low pressure will be
impacting the region as it dives southeast from the upper Great
Lakes. While there is not a great deal of moisture associated with
this system, the bulk of the pcpn looks to fall as snow. Snowfall
amounts look to be less than an inch in the valleys with a couple
of inches across the higher terrain. Lows Sunday night are
expected to be in the upper teens to upper 20s with highs on
Monday in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
For Monday night...Expect high pressure to move across the region
with dry conditions once again and lows in the 20s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active southern and northern streams with a complex pattern next
week. Looking at unsettled weather with near seasonable
Overall guidance is in agreement with large scale features/systems,
however as is typical for this time frame the differences are
with the individual short waves moving through the flow and their
timing, amplitude and influence on the large scale features. Have
taken lead from the Weather Prediction Center for the timing of
systems to maintain forecast consistency.
A storm system originating in the deep south near the gulf coast
is expected to eventually pass to our south moving off the
southeast/mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing
overrunning precipitation to the region. A period of snow is expected
with some light accumulations. A lull is then expected as the next
system evolves with northern and southern stream energy possibly
interacting/phasing. The uncertainties regarding this system are
much greater. The expectation is for this system to impact the
local area Thursday into Friday with rain and snow during the day
and snow at night. QPF amounts are expected to be higher than the
system earlier in the week. Guidance does agree colder air should
be ushered into the region with the passage of the system with
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region is under cyclonic flow with short wave continuing to
rotate about the low pressure located to our northeast. VFR
conditions are expected with the exception of MVFR ceilings across
the higher terrain of the Berkshires, KPSF. Heights will begin to
gradually rise late in the day into the evening as ridging builds
in from the west. Thus cloud cover will decrease with mostly clear
skies developing overnight.
Gusty west-northwest winds today with the strongest winds at KALB
as the flow funnels down the Mohawk Valley. Winds will weaken
tonight especially late with gusts lingering into the evening at
KALB and KPSF.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
River levels will continue to slowly recede through the next
Through Saturday there will be periods of lake effect/upslope
rain/snow showers. Snow will be likely at higher elevations with a
mix of rain/snow showers in the valleys. The precipitation will be
heaviest in the western Adirondacks where it will fall mostly as
snow. The precipitation through Saturday will have little impact
on rivers and streams.
Some light snow is possible Sunday night into early Monday, with
better chances for wintry precip towards the middle of next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our