Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 252103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...ONCE DIURNAL CU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A
DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS
DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO
GREATER INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 35 KT...AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR
7C/KM. FORCING FROM THE VORT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NAM/ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE THIS
FEATURE THOUGH...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION DUE TO MINIMAL
FORCING. SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. NEED
TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER TIME BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON`S
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH.

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 18Z SATURDAY
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AT TIMES.  SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
08Z-13Z.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOUTH TO WEST AT KGFL. WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT
LESS THAN 6 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







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