Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 060301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ONLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT STILL AROUND 20 OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED
LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE
SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
-5 TO -10 MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS. HOWEVER...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...
WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV


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