Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 051028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND A
PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WITH STRONG SUNSHINE IN PLACE...MORNING FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AND SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
12Z...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES.

SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE WITH W-SW WINDS AT 5-10
KTS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. IT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



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