Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 250810
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
407 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT, a murky night from the Hudson valley eastward
where patches of fog and stratus have formed. Temperatures were
generally 50-55, mildest in the tri-city areas. Further west of
the Hudson valley, where dewpoints were closer to 40 (as opposed
to 50 in the Hudson valley), temperatures were 45-50 but generally
no fog and a mostly clear sky.

The wind was light or calm everywhere.

For the remainder of the overnight, look for conditions to remain
status quo, with perhaps a bit more fog through daybreak from the
Hudson valley eastward. Overnight low temperatures will generally
be mid to upper 40s well west of the Capital region, around 50 in
the Capital region and points east.

The fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Not only we will
warm up fairly quickly thanks to good deal of sunshine. Also, a
breeze will kick up from the west, which will provide mixing,
bringing dry air down from above.

That breeze will average 5-10 mph, gusting to 20 mph or so across
the elevated terrain/Capital region and Mohawk valley.

Temperatures look to head to their highest levels since September
19th of last year, as they soar to the lower to mid 80s in the
valleys, with a few upper 80s in the mid Hudson valley, 75-80
higher terrain.

A very weak disturbance might touch off a stray shower or
thunderstorm across mainly our northern areas this afternoon. This
would be the exception rather than the rule.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any convection will dissipate quickly after sunset. We will be
left with a clear to partly cloudy night with a summery feel, as
low temperatures only dip to around 50 in the coolest spots, 55-60
in most areas, warmest right in the Capital region. The wind will
become light and once again there could be a few patches of fog
around daybreak.

We continue to see some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage
of clouds and how extensive any shower or thunderstorm activity
will be on Thursday and Friday. It looks as if a weak boundary
and another disturbance could trigger some convection later
Thursday as dewpoints increase into the 60s, although SBCAPES do
not look that high (500-1000 J/KG). Most of the day will be dry
and there will a good of deal sunshine as well. Very warm
temperatures will likely be a point or two higher than Wednesday.

Scattered convection could linger into Thursday night as the
aforementioned boundary slowly lifts northward as warmfront
through our region.

By Friday, 500 MB heights continue to rise as an impressive ridge
builds just to our south, reaching close to 590 hectopascals  , not
too shabby for May. Rising heights tend to induce subsidence and
capping.

Still most models do indicate a scattered of showers and
thunderstorms for mainly Friday afternoon so will continue with
low chances of thunderstorms. It will be another very warm to hot
day with highs 85-90 in the valleys, 80-85 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through
Monday with a chance of showers on Tuesday. The activity will be
most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. The forecast
area will be impacted by ridge rollers as moisture rides along the
top of the ridge which will be anchored to our south. Sunday and
Monday are the days during which the thunderstorm activity looks
most widespread as a back door cold front drops southwest on Sunday
and returns north as a warm front on Monday.

Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 70s with mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with
lows Sunday night and Monday night in the mid 50s to around 60.

Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.

As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.

KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.

Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.

Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday night through Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...and mainly PM TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across the
Adirondacks, it should be a dry warm day today. RH values will
drop into the 30s in most valley locations this afternoon, but
stay in the 40s across most of the higher terrain. A west wind
will average 10 mph later in the morning through early evening.
There will be some gusts to 20 mph across the higher elevations,
Mohawk valley and Greater Capital District.

A Bermuda high will take control of our weather for the next
several upcoming day. This feature will bring very warm
increasingly humid days and nights will full recovery. There will
be chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
especially over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Saturday.

Today looks mainly dry outside a few possible showers and
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. As a Bermuda high forms, we
can expect warm and increasingly humid weather Thursday through
the weekend.

While most of that time will be rainfree, there is an increasing
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. These look
scattered but as PWATS increase well over an inch, isolated heavy
rainfall will possible by Friday afternoon.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



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