Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 250235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1035 PM EDT...STILL OVER REAL ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. RIDGING OVER THE EAST WILL LIKELY FORCE THIS
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-90.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
90...WHERE CLOUDS WHERE THE THINNEST.

SO IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GO UP A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
THE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD...BOTH OF WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE
OF COOLING DOWN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RE-TOOLED THE HOURLY GRIDS AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...CLOSER TO 50 IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN MOST CASES.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



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