Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 172312
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AND TRENDS...CURRENT
FORECAST NEED FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
DESCRIBES THE IMPORTANT FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND IS BELOW...

A FEW ISOLD- SCT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED
IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA






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