Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 131353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREAS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE MIDWEEK AS IT
TURNS COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NYS EXCEPT THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...WHERE IT WILL CLOUD OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALONG WITH W NEW ENG. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG THE W PRTNS OF THE
FCA...AND WILL CONT TO LIFT NE THRU THE FCA MIDDAY. TD WERE IN
THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART AND PWAT VALUES ACROSS NYS ARE 1.42 AT
ALB AND 1.80 AT BUF. THE WSR88D HAS SOME -SHRA ASSOC WITH WMFNT
ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA...AND WIDESPREAD -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS FM
THE FINGER LAKES RGN WEST IN NYS. LOCAL WRF MDLS/HRRR STRENGTHEN
AND PROPAGATE THIS ACTIVITY EAST...ACROSS THE FCA DURING THE LATE
AFTN AND EVNG HOURS.

MRNG RAOB AT ALB INDICATED A CAPE OF 341 J/KG IF THE TEMP REACHED
88...HWVR TEMPS WILL BARELY REACH THE TRIGGER TEMP OF 84F AND ARE
UNLIKELY TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 88. OF NOTE ON ALB
SOUNDING WAS A STRONG CAP AT 575HPA...WHICH IF IT HELD WOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE GUID DOESN`T
RESOLVE THIS FEATURE VERY WELL...BUT TEMPS DO COOL 1-2C AT THIS
LVL TDY...WHICH WILL ERODE THIS FEATURE SOME. BUF SOUNDING IS
UNCAPPED.

GFS CAPES ONLY INCR TO 500-1000J/KG TDY...WITH MOST OF THIS IN FAR
SE AND NW...NAM MDL SNDG TAKES ALB TO 1300 J/KG...AND NAM ITSELF
INCRG CAPE TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER FCA...WITH MAX VALUES AT
18UTC...THEN DCRG TO 500-700HPA DURING THE AFTN.

AT 850HPA 50KT JET OVER LWR GRT LKS...WHICH MDLS PROPAGATE
EAST...INTO FCA BY EVNG. AT 500HPA NAM HAS A 40-50KT JET EJECTING
ACROSS FCA WITH ASSOC CVA DUNG THE AFTN. SPC MADE A MINOR EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF SLIGHT RISK AREAS...GLANCING W MHWK VLY.

EXCERPTED FROM SPC DISC..."MEANWHILE DIABATIC HEATING AND
FAVORABLE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACT IN TANDEM...OFFSETTING WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. PRECONVECTIVE
MLCAPE SHOULD BE 500-800 J/KG OVER NY. AS BUOYANCY DIMINISHES WITH
NEWD EXTENT...DEEP SHEAR WILL INCREASE. MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR
SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER OH VALLEY TO NRN PA AND WRN NY."

IS WHAT WE HAVE IS A VARIETY OF FACTORS THAT ARE NOT WELL PHASED
OVER FCA FOR SVR CONVECTION...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN EVENT OR THREE.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF DIURNAL HEATING WERE TO BE MUCH GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE MIDDAY TO BE VRBL CLOUDY..WARM AND HUMID
WITH SCT -SHRA. SHOWERS AND SCT TSMS WILL INCR DURING THE AFTN AS
THE CAP WEAKENS...AND OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ADVANCING EAST
TRIGGERS NEW ACTIVITY. WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME SHRA/TSTMS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT
2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BASED OF CLIMO. WITH FZL LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 KFT AND CAPE LIMITED TO JUST 500-1000 J/KG...THE SETUP
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES MAY EASILY EXCEED ONE INCH
PER HOUR...AND MAY REACH 2.00-2.50 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY WE ARE IN A FAST FLOW THROUGH
OUT THE ATMOS...AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG AND
NOT LINGER FOR LONG IN ANY ONE PLACE.

MAX TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS THE DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN CROSS
THROUGH OUR AREA. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR...AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BEFORE THEN...REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AND POTENTIALLY
FLASH FLOODING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FINAL STAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MIGRATES DOWN WELL
INTO THE CONUS.  THIS WILL USHER IN RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LARGE ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND +10C RESULTING IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND RATHER COOL NIGHTS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES.  THE HEART OF THIS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE PEAK HEATING.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...A CYCLONIC
ENTITY IS LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PER THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/ENTITY AND AMPLIFIES
THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.  THIS IN TURN ATTEMPTS TO BRING
NORTHWARD MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME...WE WILL HOLD POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO CHANCE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS.  THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE THERMAL
PROFILES AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE TO ABOVE +10C.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING TAKING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FROM VFR TO HIGH END MVFR.  THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WILL
MENTION TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY DEEPER/HEAVIER CONVECTION.  THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MVFR RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING
/SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN KALB/...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BY MID-DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. AT THE VERY LEAST...RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...POOR
DRAINAGE...LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER
THE SAME LOCATION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY URBAN LOCATIONS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL END
AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY HIGH WATER TO
RECEDE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS






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