Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



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