Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 061131
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE.
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS GEORGIA THAT WAS
TRYING TO PUSH INTO EAST ALABAMA. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BY THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MASS...AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES/OLD MEXICO AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO SPREAD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS WITH A
FEW SPOTS OF RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED...WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES
OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
VARY SOMEWHAT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE. I
GENERALLY TEND TO DISLIKE GOING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IN A ROW...BUT IN THIS CASE I THINK IT IS WARRANTED.
FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL COLD AIR WILL HAVE RETREATED
FAR ENOUGH NORTH SO THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
LOW MVFR DECK MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA AND WILL
IMPACT ANB...ASN...MGM AND TOI THIS MORNING. POSSIBLY MAY REACH
BHM AND EET...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WILL AMEND THOSE IF
NEEDED. CLEARING SKIES AT AREAS AFFECTED AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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