Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241147 AAA
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Hot and humid conditions will continue into the upcoming week.
Highs generally 90 to 95 and muggy. Maximum heat indices will be
near 100 degrees each afternoon. Upper ridging will remain the
dominant factor across the region as it shifts around slightly the
next several days.

A shortwave will pass the Great Lake and Ohio Valley regions
today and tomorrow. This helps nudge the ridge from southeast with
two distinct ridge centers forming, one off the east coast and the
other near the desert southwest. This will allow for a few showers
and thunderstorms today and Monday but nothing widespread. The
eastern ridge cell eventually works its way toward central Alabama
Wednesday and Thursday before a more significant trough tries to
form up over the central Conus next weekend. The GFS is a little
more aggressive with that trough and maybe too much so considering
the strength of the ridge building in from the east. Will stay
close to climatological POPs for now.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Area of convection just south of MEM. Otherwise, mainly high
cirrus present with a few patches of fair weather cumulus. VFR
conditions for most will be the norm this morning except for some
patchy BR at EET. Weak upper disturbances today could generate
some scattered TSRA in the afternoon across portions of C AL.
Have put VCTS for all terminals except south ones-MGM/TOI starting
at 18Z. With weak low level flow, winds should be SE ~ 5-8KTS
generally outside of any convection then a typical tapering off
after sunset is expected.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be rather
light and variable. Since surface dew points are so high,
critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met with
no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  72  93  73  92 /  30  30  40  20  40
Anniston    94  73  93  73  92 /  30  30  40  20  30
Birmingham  94  76  94  75  93 /  30  30  30  20  30
Tuscaloosa  95  74  94  74  94 /  30  30  30  20  20
Calera      94  74  93  74  92 /  20  20  30  20  30
Auburn      94  74  92  74  92 /  20  20  30  20  20
Montgomery  96  75  95  74  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
Troy        93  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

88/08



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