Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 200907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  48  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    73  49  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  74  50  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  75  50  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      73  51  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      73  53  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  52  80  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        76  51  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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