Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 310531
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION. FOR THE
MOST PART WE ARE DONE FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. ROUND 1 HAS
EXITED TO THE NORTH/EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE FAR EXTREME EAST
COUNTIES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD HAVE A SHOWER SCRAPE US
WITH A LITTLE BACK-BUILDING. ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MS/TN COULD SKIRT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AND BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE. REALLY THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS. THINK WE COULD BE
KEPT FROM SOME OF THE MORE DENSE FOG DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD STILL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF TONIGHT.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM AS WE DROPPED QUICKLY
WITH STORMS BUT SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT CONVINCED ON THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLIER MODELS
WERE ADVERTISING...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BEARISH ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK ALSO POINTS TOWARDS
LESS DEVELOPMENT. HAVEN`T ABANDONED THE THOUGHT ENTIRELY AT
BHM/EET/ANB/TCL...BUT HELD IT UNTIL LATER AND MOVE IT OUT SOONER.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT ANY SITE AS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. LIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  69  92  70  93 /  50  20  20  10  20
ANNISTON    92  70  93  71  93 /  40  20  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  93  75  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  72  94  74  95 /  40  20  20  10  20
CALERA      91  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
AUBURN      91  72  92  72  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
MONTGOMERY  93  73  95  73  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
TROY        94  72  93  72  95 /  20  20  30  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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