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000
FXUS64 KBMX 261146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$