Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 301744 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LOW STRATUS HANGING ON FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT...THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME
DECENT HEATING. WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THIS. EVEN WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING ON SOME...VISIBILITIES ARE
DOING OK...SO HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND
FROM THE HWO.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO ERODE
AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

FOR SEVERAL DAYS EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM GEORGIA. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN THE CASE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ON THE FRINGES OF
THE WESTWARD MOVING CLOUD DECK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE MOIST
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RATHER THIN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
MANY AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE 68-72F RANGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE WESTERLY 700-500MB WINDS OF 40-50KT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SURFACE CAPE OF 800-1400 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE SUBTLE TRENDS OF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...SOMETHING THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
WITH THE 00Z RUN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST MORNING APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  57  86  61  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
ANNISTON    84  60  86  65  87 /   0   0  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  62  87  68  87 /   0   0  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  62  89  67  88 /   0   0  10  10  30
CALERA      85  64  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      83  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  86  65  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        85  63  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16/87






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