Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

For 18Z Aviation and Short Term.



Fair skies prevail across much of central with surface high
pressure over the Mid Atlantic region. Surface southeast winds are
increasing the dew points gradually and will support an increase
in clouds late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Continued to maintain slightly lower PoP`s across central Alabama
through late afternoon followed by few changes to the ongoing
forecast tonight and into early on Wednesday. Expect rain chances
to increase overnight and into early Wednesday as a weak front
along the Gulf Coast lifts northward toward central Alabama.


Previous mesoscale discussion from this morning.

12Z balloon sounding revels a relatively dry profile with a stout
subsidence inversion around 700 millibars. Additionally, a
radiation inversion was detected right off the surface. The
radiation inversion has mostly already mixed out with surface
temperatures already in the lower 70`s at 8 am. Precipitable
water values are around 0.93 inches which is about a tenth of an
inch less than this time yesterday morning. The wind profile
overall is weak with southwest flow aloft while a more southerly
flow was present toward the surface.

Morning surface analysis along with recent radar and satellite
imagery review indicates lower pressures that exist along the
central Gulf Coast while higher pressures were found across
north-central Georgia. Two low-level boundaries were found in
satellite imagery over interior southwest Alabama and were
drifting northeast.

Due to the drier air in the sounding this morning opted to
slightly decrease PoP`s across our north-central counties while
slightly increasing PoP`s late this morning through the afternoon
over our southern and southeast counties. The two low-level
boundaries may help to enhance surface convergence across our
southern and southeast counties late this morning and into early


Previous short-term discussion:Today and tonight.

Overall high pressure will still be in control of the region today
and tonight. However, we will see some more features that will
impact the region and begin to moisten up the area for the
extended portion of the forecast. For this afternoon, we will
begin to see a seabreeze move northward. Looks like it will
approach the area late in the afternoon into the evening hours.
Will include isolated to scattered showers and storms in the far
south through this evening. We will continue to moisten as
southerly flow increases over the region. There may be just enough
lift late tonight to generate an isolated shower/storm across the
eastern two-thirds of the area so will include during that time
as well. Most of the area will remain dry through the next 24
hours. More of a typical summer time forecast, with a little more
in humidity by the afternoon.


Thursday through Tuesday.

Deep moisture will continue to spread inland on Thursday as a
disturbance moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico. For the
weekend, an upper-level trough is expected to approach the region
and provide additional focus for convection. This pattern should
lead to an extended period high rain chances for Thursday through
Sunday. Rain chances may decrease somewhat for early next week with
the passage of a diffuse front, but moisture content could remain
sufficient for isolated diurnally-driven convection.



18Z TAF Discussion.

Surface high pressure analyzed over west-central Virginia is
supporting fair skies and a developing southeast wind in the lower
levels. Expect VFR conditions to prevail today and tonight with
TSRA possible at MGM/TOI late this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Clouds will increase from south to north tonight and on
Wednesday. All sites will have the potential for TSRA toward the
end of this forecast cycle Wednesday afternoon.




Rain chances should begin to increase across our southern areas
today. This will continue for Thursday through Sunday with high
rain chances expected. There are no fire weather concerns.


Gadsden     68  83  70  84  71 /  20  60  40  70  50
Anniston    69  82  70  84  71 /  20  70  50  70  40
Birmingham  71  83  71  85  72 /  10  70  40  70  50
Tuscaloosa  71  85  71  86  72 /  10  70  40  70  50
Calera      70  83  71  84  72 /  20  70  40  70  50
Auburn      69  81  70  83  71 /  20  70  50  70  40
Montgomery  71  84  72  86  73 /  20  70  40  70  40
Troy        72  81  70  84  71 /  30  70  40  70  40




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