Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 290301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
901 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Light winds tonight with smoke layers from various
wildfires around the region. We are still expecting a warmup
tomorrow and Tuesday as southwest flow aloft increases and warm
air advection develops. We will be near record highs tomorrow at a
few locations and will issue a Public Information Statement about
that shortly. No updates are anticipated at this time.


.AVIATION...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in smoke around
wildfires. Increased mid-upper level clouds Monday afternoon.
Surface winds, variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft to 10k feet
MSL, west-southwest 10-15 kts, then 15-30 kts Monday morning.


SHORT TERM...No significant forecast changes through Monday, but
Tuesday now looks as hot as Monday even under increasing clouds.
About 5 degrees warmer Monday as flow aloft backs from westerly to
southwesterly. Upper trough in the northeast Pacific will rotate a
short wave trough through eastern Oregon Tuesday with a slight
chance of thunderstorms there and also in the central Idaho
mountains Tuesday afternoon. Moderate southwesterly winds in
eastern Oregon Monday afternoon, and again in southern Harney and
Malheur Counties Tuesday afternoon. Continued smoky near the Rail
fire in Baker County, the Pioneer fire near Lowman, ID, and the
Rough fire northeast of the Pioneer fire.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...An upper level trough
sitting off the British Columbia coast will slowly track its way
southeast during this time period. Southwest winds out ahead will
help keep temperatures slightly above normal, but by Thursday
temperatures are forecast to start dropping once more. Unsettled
pattern persists for the rest of the period, but models are trending
this low to stay farther north which will limit the showers and
afternoon thunderstorms to farther north than previously expected.
By Sunday another trough starts to make its way southward keeping
temperatures below normal and chances of showers and afternoon


OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
     Monday ORZ636-637-646.



PREV LONG TERM....JC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.