Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 032054
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH WITH THE AXIS GOING THROUGH NRN NV AND INTO
NRN CA. THIS IS INHIBITING MOISTURE FROM MOVING VERY FAR NORTH
ACROSS THE NV BORDER. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THAT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH NRN IDAHO AND INTO
MONTANA. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA TOMORROW
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES AT KREO GO FROM
APPROX 0.80 THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND AN INCH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SLIGHTLY NORTH...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF STORMS RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH THAT PASSED BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY
LITTLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT APART FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHERE
A SIGNIFICANT GUST THREAT EXISTS OWING TO VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER EXTENDS SOUTH INTO IDAHO. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST OVER CALIFORNIA - FINALLY
REACHING ERN OREGON AND SWRN IDAHO BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING SOME RESPITE FROM RECENT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WARRANTS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF MID-WEEK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE SNAKE RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH 04Z. WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SUNSET...TRENDING LIGHT TERRAIN-
DRIVEN AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 18 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT


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