Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB



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