Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 141658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNDERWAY AND WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOON. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND WET GROUND CONTRIBUTING TO A MINIMAL
WARMUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEEING THAT WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND WE HAVE MODERATE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...ANY SUN THAT DOES BREAK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
TO MIX DOWN WARMER AIR AND COULD RESULT IN A RAPID LATE JUMP IN
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL LEAVE FORECAST WHERE
IT IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RAIN..SNOW..AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MON/12Z...TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS...LOW
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...IMPROVING TO
MAINLY VFR BY 00Z AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASES. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5K FT MSL
TODAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 6.5-7K FT MSL TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...W
TO NW 5-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMUO...THE MAGIC
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN /INCL SE OREGON/.
GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH TO THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 40-50
KTS...DECREASING TO 25-40 KTS BEFORE MON/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
GENERALLY RAIN BELOW ABOUT 4500 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN
INCH ARE SO FAR BEING REPORTED IN MCCALL AND AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND TAMARACK. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED AT
BRUNDAGE. SNOW LEVEL WILL ONLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500 FEET IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR MCCALL TO OVER
8000 FEET NEAR THE NEVADA/IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WARM FRONT KICKS OUT AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN WHAT IT REALLY IS AS
850-700MB WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND OREGON REACH AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFINED TO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON MONDAY.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BRING RAIN TO
THE VALLEYS AND SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL AGREE ON
REBUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JT


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