Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 280317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
917 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 915 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Due to the warm temperatures we experienced today and high clouds
to stream in tonight, have warmed overnight lows slightly and
tomorrow`s highs as well. With a shortwave pushing in tomorrow
night under cloudy skies, have increased tomorrow night`s minimum
temperatures as well.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A large upper level ridge of high pressure covers the Rocky Mountain
Region...with a weak westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern
is resulting in warm and dry conditions across north central and
northeastern Colorado today. On Friday...the upper ridge flattens
and moves into the Central Plains response to an upper
level shortwave moving across the Intermountain West.
Colorado will be on the back side of the ridge...under the influence
of a dry southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures on Friday should
once again be unseasonably warm with the possibility of a few more
temperature records broken across the northeastern plains. The
forecasted high for Denver is 81 degrees...which would break the
record of 80 degrees last set in 1966. GFS and ECMWF model guidance
do show high temperatures in Denver a couple of degrees warmer than
today...possibly due to a weak downslope flow.
However...increased cloudiness and a possible wave cloud could
negate the warming. Therefore...have decided to leave the max
temperature grid alone. The increased southwest flow aloft should
result in breezy conditions across the high country...mainly above
timberline. In addition...increased mid level moisture...combined
with some orographic flow...could produce a few light showers across
the high country by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Southwest flow aloft will prevail as an upper level ridge moves
off to the southeast of Colorado. A weakening Pacific system will
sweep northeast across the Intermountain West Friday night and
early Saturday. This will increase cloud cover across the state.
Over the mountains, scattered showers will be possible. Airmass
will continue to be on the warm side with the snow level around
11k feet. The showers will decrease and end Saturday morning as
drier returns to the area. Slightly cooler air behind the exiting
system will result in highs reaching the lower to mid 70s.

There will be a slight increase in moisture Saturday night which
could bring a few light showers. Otherwise, southwest flow aloft
will continue to bring mild and dry conditions. The flow aloft
will increase Sunday as another weakening Pacific system
approaches the state. Expect winds to increase over parts of the
area due to this. It will also be warm Sunday with highs in the

This next wave is forecasted to pass just north of Colorado late
Sunday and early Monday. There looks to be enough orographic lift
and moisture for scattered showers in the mountains. It will also
be windy with the system, so the downslope winds will dry the
Front Range and eastern plains. Winds will decrease and the
precipitation will end by Monday evening as the system leaves the

Southwest flow aloft will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday as an
upper level trough digs southeast over California. Dry and mild
conditions will continue, though highs will be closer to normal
with readings in the 60s. Moisture may start to increase late
Wednesday as the low moves into the Desert Southwest. Models still
trying to figure where this low will go and how strong it will be.
Therefore, will have low pops and near normal temperatures in the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 915 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions and diurnal winds will prevail for the next 24
hours due to upper level high pressure. Only high level clouds
above 15kft are expected. A surface lee trough is enhancing
drainage winds this evening, expecting these to decrease toward
12z. Wind speeds at local airports should remain at or below 10
knots Friday.




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