National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBOX 120847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THEN SNOW LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES CRASH ALLOWING FOR A FLASH FREEZE.  BITTERLY COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FRI AND
SAT...BEFORE ANOTHER INSTALLMENT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***STEADY RAIN WILL NOT AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
  AND POSSIBLY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING***

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
AS IT INTENSIFIES.  THE BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.  THEREFORE...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING..MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
PTYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT
A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST NH BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-95 DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.  IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR THE STEADY RAIN
TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...BULK OF
THE MID LEVEL FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PTYPE...MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POCKETS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA AS SHALLOW
COLD AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
...BUT SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTION OF
INTERIOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

***RAIN CHANGES TO BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO
  SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT***

***FLASH FREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPACT ON THURSDAY AM RUSH HOUR A
  MUCH BIGGER CONCERN THAN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS***

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA
TONIGHT.  ONCE THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH
AN RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.  THE COLD AIR INITIALLY COMES DOWN
SHALLOW...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO
SLEET/FREEZING THEN SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA BY LATE
EVENING...THEN BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE MID LEVEL CENTERS OF THE STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE VERY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONFINED TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS NORTHERN
CHESHIRE/NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WHERE SOME 6+ INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  WE WERE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THESE
AMOUNTS WOULD COVER A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE COUNTIES FOR AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...BUT SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER.  BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL BE ACROSS CHESHIRE COUNTY.

ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WERE JUST EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH PERHAPS 2 TO 4
INCHES NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND FLASH FREEZE WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO CRASH INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...FELT AN ADVISORY WAS WORTH
IT. ESPECIALLY WITH AN IMPACT EXPECTED ON THE THURSDAY AM RUSH HOUR.
VERY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE FALL AS SOME LOCATIONS IN RHODE
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA MAY BE NEAR 50 THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS LOWER 20S BY EARLY THU AM!

THURSDAY...

***BITTERLY COLD WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH***

POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALL DAY...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO.  IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.  SINCE
ITS A 3RD PERIOD EVENT AND THERE IS A LOT GOING ON WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT HANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*** TYPICAL MARCH WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SPRING AND WINTER-LIKE
    TEMPS THIS PERIOD ***

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST BUT THEN BEGINS TO SHOW
TYPICAL SPREAD/BIASES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

THE KEY TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC CUTOFF...THAT IS
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A GENERAL POSITIVE
NAO/AO REGIME...SUGGESTING A PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK FROM THE ERN
CONUS INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...THE KEY TO THE ULTIMATE
STORM TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE EXACTLY WHERE THE VORTEX
AND ITS LONGWAVE TROF EXTENSION INTO THE ERN CONUS SETS UP. LATEST
ECMWF AS WELL AS SOME OF THE GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
LESS PROGRESSIVE TRACK...ALLOWING THE TROF TO SET UP MAINLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...PICKING UP ENERGY AND
MOISTURE AS IT DOES. IT IS THIS SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING THE BEST
SHOT AT ANOTHER COASTAL STORM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUPPRESSED TO THE S. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...ASIDE FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF IT WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BOTH FROM ARCTIC THE NRN PACIFIC. EACH OF THESE
WAVES WILL NOT BE IN AN OBSERVATION RICH AREA FOR ABOUT 48+
HOURS...SO EXPECT THE TRACK TO SETTLE BETTER BY THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW...WILL BLEND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ALL
POSSIBILITIES.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES
OVER THE REGION FROM THE S. THU NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO START
COLD...WITH AMBIENT MINS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND MAY YIELD
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -10F TO -15F...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BY FRI...SHIFTING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S AND ONLY
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FRI NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN NIGHT...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED UNDER WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON...LIFT WITH IT IS WEAK...MAINLY FROM THE ISENTROPIC
SUPPORT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. MOISTURE IS ALSO
LACKING...WITH ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH PWAT VALUES.
SO...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT AND SOME AREAS MAY STAY DRY ALTOGETHER.
COLD AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED SAT NIGHT UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS SUN ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
MINS SUN NIGHT...SETTLING IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.

MON INTO TUE...
THE COLD FRONT SETTLES OFFSHORE SUN...ORIENTING ALONG THE MEAN
STORM TRACK...WHICH REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION BASED ON THE
OVERVIEW DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRES TO DEVELOP...BUT ITS POTENCY AND TRACK
ARE UNCERTAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CURRENT ECMWF /AS WELL AS
GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL CMC/ SUGGEST IT MAY MAKE A
CLOSE ENOUGH PASS FOR SOME WRAP-AROUND SNOWS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN /GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS/ WOULD KEEP IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ONCE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC AND ARCTIC ARE BETTER SAMPLED.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
IN EITHER CASE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION AS ANY STORM SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SO A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN TRENDS AND TIMING.

TODAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VFR CONDITIONS MAY HANG TOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  PTYPE
WILL BE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN FACT...THE STEADY RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS AND PERHAPS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KNOTS BEHIND THE STORM BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY JUST
OFF THE DECK...SO LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

THURSDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD IMPROVE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR IF NOT VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST...

BOS...1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT/THU AM
PVD...1/2 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT/THU AM
BDL...1/2 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT/THU AM
ORH...1-3 INCHES LATE OVERNIGHT/THU AM
MHT...2-5 INCHES LATE OVERNIGHT/THU AM

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z TODAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.  RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 4Z AND 6Z TONIGHT.  THEN A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z TODAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.  RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z
TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE TRANSITION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. STRONG NW WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE SW ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROBABILITY OF A LATE DAY OCEAN LOW PRES
LEADING TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY SE MASS. MVFR/IFR WOULD
BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN 20 TO 25 KNOT
GUSTS AND 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
OUR EAST.  IN ADDITION...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THU AFTERNOON AS AN USUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID MARCH INVADES THE
REGION.  LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 13 FEET ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY THU. VSBY REDUCED IN
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH WATERS
FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELLS COMBINING WITH NEW NW WIND WAVES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WIND BECOMING SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE
5 FT ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE W DURING THE DAY SATE. GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT A BUILDING SWELL
OF 5-7 FT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

SUN...
MODEST NW WIND MAY INCREASE BY SUN EVENING. DRY AND GOOD VSBY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO FLOODING EXPECTED GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW ASTRO TIDES AND NOT MUCH
WIND AND SURGE ANTICIPATED AS TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BE DIRECTLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
FOR FETCH IN ANY ONE DIRECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HERE ARE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY MARCH 14TH...

BOSTON.......12/1896...FORECAST LOW...14
PROVIDENCE...12/1948...FORECAST LOW...13
BRADLEY ARPT..7/1948...FORECAST LOW...9
WORCESTER.....4/1948...FORECAST LOW...8

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ004>019-026.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF