Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 282130
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
330 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Passage of a trough across southern Canada will allow a weak
boundary to slip into our region from the north late today.
Surface convergence along this feature may lead to some small
build-ups and an isolated light shower or sprinkle this evening.
However, the cooling is relatively shallow and should not affect
tomorrow temps much. Otherwise...the only benefit of this feature
may be to simply sweep some of the areal smoke south overnight as
projected by HRRR progs.

Easterly flow will prevail tomorrow behind Canadian shortwave
and surface high settles over the northern plains. Ridge builds in
and strengthens as flow aloft will back in response to next
Pacific trof, and although moisture will be limited we may see a
few showers or weak tstms develop over the mountains. Temps will
remain above normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

As for fire weather concerns...temps will be above normal and
humidity low, but there is little indication of any brisk winds
and threat of lightning is limited the next couple of days. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Models have shifted further west with an approaching vort max on
Wednesday which will trim PoPs back to mainly over the western
mountains and foothills during the afternoon. South/Southwesterly
flow will continue to bring smoke and haze in from the fires in
Yellowstone National Park on Wednesday with highs in the low to
mid 90s possible. Deep Pacific trough pushes closer on Thursday.
Divergence aloft will help induce lee side troughing near the
surface on Thursday and Friday producing thunderstorms mainly
during the afternoon/early evening hours. Looks like storms will
be high based in nature given the warm/dry airmass in place.
Upper-level trough will bring additional rain chances and cooler
temperatures to the area when it finally arrives later in the
period. Models are very inconsistent with the exact timing but
for now trending temps down on Sunday and increasing PoPs to
represent latest guidance. Walsh
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail across the area today and tonight. Surface winds
at KLVM will gust to near 30 kt this afternoon from the W. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/088 060/093 063/093 061/091 059/084 054/078 051/071
    00/H    00/H    02/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T
LVM 047/089 051/094 053/092 053/089 050/082 045/076 042/069
    00/H    00/H    02/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/091 058/095 060/096 060/093 057/086 052/081 050/074
    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/B    23/T
MLS 059/090 062/096 065/095 064/094 061/087 056/083 053/074
    10/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/B    23/T
4BQ 058/090 059/094 062/092 062/093 060/088 056/084 053/074
    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/B    23/T
BHK 055/086 057/088 060/089 060/090 058/087 054/082 051/073
    10/U    01/N    11/N    22/T    22/T    21/B    23/T
SHR 053/090 054/093 056/092 056/091 055/087 051/081 049/073
    00/H    01/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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