Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 300235
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
835 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms were diminishing this evening
as forcing associated with a weak disturbance was moving out of
the area. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Big
Horn Mountains for the next hour or two, diminishing for the
remainder of the night. Only update to the going forecast was to
adjust sky cover to current trends. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and
an updated aviation discussion are below. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Hot and mainly dry forecast for the weekend. Weak forcing and
marginal instability will keep a slight chance for a thunderstorm
in the forecast through early evening, expect rapid clearing by
sunset. Low level jet with return moisture may bring a period of
patchy fog/stratus back into far southeast Montana after midnight.
Otherwise a quiet and mostly clear night is on tap.

Flow aloft backs to the west tomorrow allowing downslope winds to
warm temperatures well into the 90s. Monsoonal moisture feed over
the Great Basin will get dragged into this flow and bring a chance
for a thunderstorm to southern mountain locations in the
afternoon/evening. Otherwise a sunny dry day expected.

Brief ridging develops Sunday morning ahead of upper trof for a
dry morning. As trof approaches from the west heights begin to
fall and divergence aloft increases, along with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Kept pops low however due to the core
of the upper low staying mainly north of the border which puts our
area on the breezy and drier portion of the system. Latest models
drop a cold front through late afternoon that helps to shield the
area from the gusty winds and keep fire dangers somewhat in check
across our area as well as holding temperatures out of the 100
degree range. Will have to see if this solution holds over the
next 24 hours. Best chance for showers/thunderstorms looks to be
along and east of surface trof over southeast Montana ahead of the
front with more widespread chances developing once the front
arrives for the evening hours. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

No major changes to the extended. Tuesday is the main focus with a
trough moving across the area. Ahead of a front on Tuesday
temperatures will be hot again. The timing of the front continues
to be in the evening and overnight. This will help to reduce the
fire weather hazards. The one caveat to this the flow during the
day on Tuesday will be southwest aloft. This will allow some
scattered thunderstorms to develop over the mountains and then
continue with the front. Behind the front on Wednesday, winds will
continue to be be a bit gusty. Temperatures behind the front will
be cooler and will continue through the remainder of the extended. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue tonight. A few showers and weakening
thunderstorms will approach KSHR from the west, but should stay
south and west of the terminal as they decrease in coverage and
intensity. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/094 065/095 061/090 062/096 059/085 055/086 058/090
    20/U    11/U    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
LVM 053/093 054/092 049/091 055/093 049/083 047/085 048/090
    21/U    11/U    21/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/095 063/096 060/093 061/099 058/086 054/088 057/092
    20/U    11/U    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
MLS 062/093 066/097 064/092 064/099 063/086 057/086 060/092
    20/U    12/T    11/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/094 065/097 064/092 064/100 062/087 056/087 060/091
    11/U    12/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 056/089 062/095 061/089 060/093 060/083 054/084 056/087
    10/U    13/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
SHR 055/093 059/095 057/091 058/096 056/085 052/086 053/090
    21/U    11/U    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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