Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 070325
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
825 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS HAS PASSED FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW. FOR AREAS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AS WELL...HOWEVER ANOTHER PUSH OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
PERIOD OF STRONG WIND POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAYS ROUND...BUT GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH SEEM REASONABLE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE FOR CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.

STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IN THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE FOR LOWS. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WINDY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE STRONG PACIFIC FRONT HAS NOW BLASTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GAP AND PRE-FRONTAL WINDS FOR LIVINGSTON HIT
79 MPH THIS MORNING WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH.
WINDS HAVE SINCE LOWERED INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS ACROSS THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS
HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS REPORTS FROM RED LODGE MOUNTAIN
SHOWED THE CHAIR LIFTS ON HOLD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AREA WIND
SENSORS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS SUCH AS BIG TIMBER...JUDITH
GAP...ROUNDUP AND THE BULL MOUNTAIN DOT SITE HAVE HAD GUSTS IN THE
60-65 MPH RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. PEAK WIND SO FAR AT THE
BILLINGS AIRPORT HAS BEEN 58 MPH WITH 44 MPH HERE AT THE OFFICE ON
THE WEST END.

SATELLITE IS NOW SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATIVE OF
HIGH WINDS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. SEE NO NEED TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. RAWS
SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
SHOWING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40S. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND THIS LIFT MAY COUNTERACT SOME OF THE DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE ALSO BACKING OFF SOME ON WINDS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA SO I HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY TIGHT SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE WITH AN AXIS
W OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI. THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT POPS IN OUR FAR NE THUR
EVENING THROUGH FRI DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER PRIOR TO
RAISING POPS ANY FURTHER.

FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NEAR W MTNS AND EASTWARD NEAR BILLINGS LOOK TO
STAY WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DO NOT SEEM TO SUGGEST ANYTHING ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEK... WITH TEMPS PUSHING NEAR 60 IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS ON
TUE... THEN GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KTS COMMON. AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS POSSIBLE FOR
KMLS AND KBHK DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO MVFR LEVELS...INCLUDING KSHR. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/044 028/050 035/058 036/057 034/054 033/052 033/053
    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    11/N    11/B
LVM 026/042 027/051 038/052 036/051 035/050 033/049 033/049
    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 026/044 022/051 030/057 030/054 028/052 027/050 027/051
    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 028/042 018/044 030/052 032/052 028/045 026/042 026/046
    10/N    00/E    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/E    11/B
4BQ 027/039 021/044 030/052 031/054 027/049 027/045 025/048
    10/N    00/E    00/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 028/037 015/040 026/047 030/049 026/041 022/037 021/041
    10/N    00/E    01/E    00/U    02/W    21/E    11/B
SHR 024/040 021/048 029/054 026/054 027/051 026/050 025/050
    20/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      31>33-36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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