Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 282101
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
301 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Drier westerly flow has moved into the region with relatively cool
temperatures so airmass is pretty stable this afternoon and any
convection will likely be terrain aided. Diurnal cooling will
cause activity to decrease. This pattern remains in place for
Sunday with dewpoints lingering in the upper 30s and have only
minimal pops in the forecast. Will be warmer on Sunday as surface
flow is more downslopish and temperatures reach the 70s.

Monday a fast moving small upper level low moves into the area
ahead of a developing ridge over the Western US. The timing of
this low appears to be fairly early and a strong cold front is
driven across the forecast area in the morning hours. Latest GFS
and WRF push westerly surface flow across the area early enough
that severe weather does not look to be a concern over Montana.
However low freezing levels will support any cells post frontal to
easily generate small hail that could reach the ground. High
temperatures will be in the morning hours with cooling during the
afternoon. Will see increasing showers post frontal as the low
settles in Monday evening and temperatures become unseasonably
cool. borsum

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


The extended has not changed much with the latest runs. Tuesday
will see some linger showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
The best chance will be in the eastern zones. Along with the
showers, conditions will be cooler and breezy. By Wednesday
things will be drying out as ridging works into the area. Expect a
warming trend through the extended as the ridge remains in place.
Can not rule out some isolated showers over the mountains during
each afternoon, thus have kept just slight chance over the
mountains.

Going into next weekend, the ridge will begin to break down. This
will increase the rain chances, but with the latest runs the EC
was mostly dry and the GFS had just some scattered activity. Given
this, did low pops slightly, but still tried to stay closer to
climo pops. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...


Expect some scattered showers this afternoon, mostly west of
Billings and east of Miles City. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible this these showers. The shower activity will dissipate by
mid evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to continue over
the next 24 hours. Reimer
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/077 050/065 045/063 043/070 048/078 053/082 054/081
    11/U    35/T    33/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    12/T
LVM 039/073 043/062 040/063 037/072 044/077 049/079 050/079
    21/U    34/T    32/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    12/T
HDN 045/079 050/068 043/063 042/071 046/079 053/085 055/084
    10/U    24/T    34/T    31/B    11/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 048/079 053/070 048/062 045/070 049/077 055/084 058/084
    11/U    35/T    54/T    32/W    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 045/079 050/073 045/063 042/069 044/077 052/084 054/083
    11/U    24/T    43/T    32/W    11/U    11/U    12/T
BHK 043/077 049/071 044/061 039/066 042/074 048/081 050/080
    21/U    25/T    64/T    43/W    11/U    11/U    12/T
SHR 041/076 046/067 042/061 039/068 042/076 048/082 051/083
    11/U    25/T    33/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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