Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 062113
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN MOISTURE AND
ENERGY UP FROM THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION INCREASINGLY LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING...GLANCING SHERIDAN COUNTY AND LOCATIONS
ALONG THE MT/WY STATE LINE. KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS WITH CATEGORICAL FOR THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...BUT TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS LOWER. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE FOR MAINLY DRY BUT OCCASIONALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
40S AT NIGHT.

SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND CONTRACTS WILL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. SHOULDN`T REACH THE LEVELS SEEN THIS
MORNING THOUGH. UNTIL WE GET A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO WEST WIND
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF DENSER SMOKE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL GIVING THE FORECAST AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ON MON AFTERNOON INTO TUES AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET ANOTHER HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES. MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...MOSTLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN LOCALES WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE GREATEST. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EVOLVING THOUGH AND
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS DRY FROM BILLINGS
NORTHWEST TO RYEGATE AND HARLOWTON.

THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO
WRAP UP OVER THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR
BY THURSDAY AS THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HANDLE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
DIFFERENTLY. EC IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE THE GFS
SLOWS IT DOWN AND OVERSPREADS SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS SMOKE
AND LOWER CIGS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO KSHR
AND POSSIBLY KLVM BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS DISTURBANCE MOVES UP
FROM SOUTH. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND IFR/MVFR CIGS.
ELSEWHERE AT KBIL AND KMLS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS RULE WITH SMOKE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/067 046/076 051/062 043/056 039/060 041/065 042/063
    22/W    11/U    25/T    66/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 043/063 040/076 043/060 037/053 033/058 035/065 038/063
    32/W    12/T    37/T    76/W    42/W    23/W    33/W
HDN 043/069 040/075 044/065 040/058 037/061 037/066 039/065
    22/W    11/U    24/T    55/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 045/073 045/077 048/068 045/055 040/060 040/064 042/063
    10/K    00/U    04/T    55/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 045/068 041/067 044/069 041/053 038/060 037/063 038/063
    12/W    11/B    15/T    66/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 041/070 041/071 044/069 042/052 037/057 037/059 037/059
    10/K    00/N    14/T    66/W    53/W    22/W    22/W
SHR 042/059 039/066 040/063 039/052 035/057 035/062 037/062
    77/W    32/T    25/T    66/W    42/W    22/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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