Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE
GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. EVENING CREW ADDED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM EAST OF MILES
CITY TO AROUND EKALAKA. RAPID REFRESH MODEL DOES SURGE THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THIS AREA AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK...AT
LEAST LOOKING AT THE FOG PRODUCT...BUT STILL LIKE THE TREND OF
THIS STRATUS MOVING IN BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRR FORECAST.
RAPID REFRESH LIFTS THE STRATUS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO
SEASONAL LEVELS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN EAST AND LIMIT MIXING. THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...WILL GET PUSHED
EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BY A WESTERN TROUGH MOVING INLAND. A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A 40KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE TROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER CARTER AND
FALLON COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL COME
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

A VERY MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL MAKE ITS WAY AROUND A LONG
WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
VERTICAL MOTION TO BRING PRECIP TO SC AND SE MONTANA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE 850 0 DEGREE C LINE TO BE NORTH OF THE BYZ CWA. BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT A WINTRY MIX ON HILLTOPS AND THE LIKE IN SE
MONTANA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN
BOTH THE BIG HORN AND BEARTOOTH RANGES. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.

BEING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...THIS PART OF THE REGION HAS
TYPICALLY ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF COLDER
WEATHER AND AN OCCASIONAL BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
YEAR IS A BIT DIFFERENT...SO THE LOWER DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID
50S...WILL APPEAR TO BE ABRUPT AFTER A NICER DAY ON SATURDAY. BUT
HAVE NO FEAR...OUR MILD AUTUMN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG NEAR KMLS THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR AVIATION
IMPACTS SHOULD BE FELT. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 039/068 043/067 039/047 033/054 032/059 037/060
    0/U 00/U    00/B    66/W    42/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 058 036/068 041/067 038/045 028/048 026/051 036/057
    0/U 00/B    00/B    98/W    42/W    11/N    11/B
HDN 059 037/069 037/070 034/051 028/055 025/062 031/062
    0/U 00/U    00/B    44/W    42/W    11/U    11/U
MLS 050 033/061 034/066 036/048 029/049 026/059 034/058
    0/B 00/N    00/U    33/W    52/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 055 033/060 036/070 039/049 031/049 027/060 035/060
    0/U 00/N    00/B    23/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
BHK 044 028/049 031/063 035/047 028/042 024/056 031/056
    0/B 00/N    00/U    12/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
SHR 057 035/069 038/073 036/052 028/053 021/062 028/062
    0/U 00/B    00/B    34/W    42/W    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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