Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 101126
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
A trough of low pressure extending southwest into lake erie will
weaken by tonight as high pressure moves up the ohio valley and into
new jersey by sunday afternoon. A low will track northeast across
lower michigan early monday pulling a cold front through the area.
An arctic cold front will push across the region early tuesday night
then high pressure will move into ohio by friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Support for lake effect shsn will continue into tonight while mean
winds gradually back causing the main band to shift ne up the
lakeshore. Accumulations will still be significant as the main band
works its way up to the ne so will extend the lake effect warnings
further in time to account for the later ending of the significant
Temps will remain cold today with highs from 25 to 30.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
There will be no break in precip and forecast headlines as a band of
warm advection snow will develop ese across the cwa tonight. The
snow should be light with accumulation by daybreak sunday generally
from a half an inch or less in the far east to about an inch and a
half in the nw. Light snow will continue on sunday but should become
a little heavier in the north...especially the nw where 2 to 4 more
inches seems most likely.
The low associated with the precip is expected to track ne across
lower mi early monday pulling warmer air north into the cwa. The
snow is expected to start mixing with or changing to rain from south
to north late sunday and sunday night then the precip starts to end
from west to east the last few hours of sun night thru mon morning.
However...marginal lake effect conditions will set up by late monday
so sct snow showers will likely linger in the snowbelt late monday
and monday night. Little accumulation is expected monday but
enhancement from a weak system aloft could provide for up to a few
inches of accumulation in the snowbelt monday night.
There could also be a little fzra sun night as the precip
transitions from snow to rain in places in the north where temps are
slow to rise above freezing. Places in the nw could see 6 or more
inches of total snowfall for the event but since it will be spread
out over about 24 hours the situation will only need an advisory.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winter looks like it will be sticking around this week. Temperatures
will continue to average well below normal. The models continue to
have some differences but these have little impact on the practical
weather this far out. Another strong front will cross the region on
Tuesday with the lake effect resuming. 850 mb temps could get as
cold as neg 20 by Wednesday evening. That is about as cold as it
gets this time of year over these parts. Of course an airmass that
cold is also usually very dry. Will have to watch later model runs
but for now will just continue with likely pops downwind of the
lake. A 1030 mb high will move overhead on Thursday and that may
clear the western end of the area out. It will also lead to high
temps 20 to 25 degrees below normal with highs struggling to make
the lower teens. The end of the week also looks interesting as both
the GFS and ECMWF bring a strong low up the Ohio Valley just in time
for the weekend. It looks like more wintry precipitation at that
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Bands of intense lake effect continue to the north and east of
KCLE. Low level winds should become W to WSW today which will push
the snow back up the lake. At the same time weak ridging and
drying will be ongoing and by sunset do not expect much more than
flurries to be left. KCLE should see no more than flurries today.
VFR conditions are expected today except with the heavier snow
showers. KERI and KYNG will get a tempo mention but that is it.
Synoptic snow will spread east across the area tonight. Have
slowed down the onset an hour or two from the 06z package. Cigs
will dip to MVFR when this snow arrives with a prolonged period of
IFR vsbys expected. Westerly flow will become southerly by the end
of the TAF period. Gusts to 20 knots or so are likely through 18z.
OUTLOOK...Widespread light to moderate synoptic snow Sunday into
Monday for the entire forecast area. Lake effect snow will
continue in the snowbelt east of CLE into Tuesday.
Still seeing some 20 knot reports along the east lakeshore and will
keep the small craft going as is. Westerly winds will gradually
diminish today before becoming southerly late tonight and Sunday
morning. Speeds will increase again on Sunday but do not think we
will need another headline. That may change Sunday night as another
strong cold front crosses the lake. Stiff westerly winds will
continue on Monday before diminishing Monday night as a high passes
to the south of the lake. Another arctic front will cross the lake
on Tuesday with more small craft headlines expected. Strong west
winds will then continue through the end of the period.
OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
Monday for OHZ003-006>009.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until noon EST today for OHZ011-023.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for