Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 272329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE BROKEN CIGS 3 TO 4KFT WILL THIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FORCING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK SOMEWHERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ONE STICKLER AREA IS SOME LOW CLOUDS UP NEAR DUNKIRK
SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT MODELS
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS DOWN AROUND
2500 FEET EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IF IT
DIPS TO MVFR I THINK IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN CLEAR OUT ONCE MIXING TAKES PLACE. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS



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