Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1248 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weak and dry cool front across the lake will push inland
through the rest of today. High pressure will build back over
the region later today and Monday then a cold front will cross
the region on Tuesday. Another cold front will sag south near
Lake Erie early Thursday before lifting north as a warm front
Friday, bringing a chance of showers and storms to the region.


With this midday update...have lowered sky cover for the
remainder of the day. Temperature tweaks were minimal. Mid
clouds dissipated quick and the shallow fog/low stratus from
Findlay to Marion to Mount Vernon has been quickly eroding too.
Best warming so far has been in the sliver from Toledo to
Medina north of the early morning stratus under full sun...where
temperatures are reaching into the mid 50s before noon. Have
started to see a wind shift to the northwest along the immediate
lake shore from Cleveland eastward...that will mark the end of
the warming. Other than the lakeshore...temperatures from the
upper 50s to lower 60s is reasonable.

With high pressure building into the area for tonight...winds
will turn out of the north this evening.

Drier air, light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures tonight to fall to the lower and middle 30s.


A surface high will be moving off to the northeast of the area
Monday, which will turn the winds back around to the east by
late morning and the southeast by the afternoon. Temperatures
will still be about 15 degrees above normal, though the lake
shore will stay a little cooler.

A cold front will arrive Tuesday bringing rain showers to the
area. The GFS continues to be 6 plus hours faster than both the
ECMWF and NAM with regards to the timing of the front. Have
slowed down the onset of precipitation a bit to take more of a
blend of the NAM and ECMWF seeing as the GFS has routinely been
too fast with frontal boundaries recently. The slower timing
will allow for a little more heating ahead of the front, so
highs should be able to climb into the lower and middle 60s for
most areas.

The front will be well east of the area by Wednesday afternoon
and the remaining associated cloud cover should largely
dissipate by the late-morning or early-afternoon. This will
allow for plenty of sunshine with breezy southwest winds,
meaning high temperatures will likely rise into the middle and
upper 60s. We could very well see some 70 degree temperatures as
well, but will continue to trend higher in subsequent forecasts
if that looks likely.


Not many changes to the long term today as it looks like the surface
ridge will remain over the region through the end of the workweek.
As a result temps will remain mild with highs Thursday and Friday 25
to 30 degrees above normal. Precip chances will return to the
area during the period as a warm front from a low over the
Plains lifts across the area. Models still having some
differences with the main features but most of that should get
sorted out with later runs. Rain chances will increase Thursday
into Thursday night with perhaps the best chances during the
period coming on Friday. By that time the surface low should be
somewhere over the Central Lakes with a cold front approaching
the local area. Even the slower ECMWF has the front east of the
area by daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will return to near
normal behind the front with perhaps some snow showers downwind
of the lake for the second half of the weekend.


.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
The weak cold front is hung up near the Lake Erie lake shore and
will flop across the forecast area later this afternoon and
early this evening aided by the lake breeze gradient. Little or
no clouds. West winds will veer northwest to northeast by early

Quite a bit of stratus developed to the south last night and
some sneaked into the southwestern counties of the forecast
area. There should be less threat of stratus tonight given the
light winds that will be veering north and then east. There is a
decent threat of fog though as dew points across the
southwesterncounties will remain unseasonably high. The
forecast will have MVFR fog and local IFR fog during the early
morning hours on Monday at KTOL KFDY KMFD and KCAK.

Generally clear skies will continue on Monday once we evaporate
the fog with patchy mid and high clouds and a light east wind.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
night. Non-VFR will develop again Thursday or Thursday night and
continue at times Friday.


Fairly quiet weather is expected on Lake Erie the next few days as
mild temperatures continue. The flow will become onshore today
as a weakening cool front pushes south of the lake. Light flow
is expected tonight with southerly winds redeveloping Monday as
a surface ridge pushes east of the lake. Speeds will increase
some ahead of a cold front which will cross the lake on Tuesday.
Given the stable situation of cold waters and warm air do not
think waves will get more than a foot or two. A period of
westerly flow is expected right behind the front but winds will
return to the southwest or south by early Wednesday and will
then remain that way through the end of the period. Do not
foresee needing any small craft headlines the next few days.




NEAR TERM...Mottice/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.