Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Low pressure over the midwest will move to northern Michigan by
Thursday evening, then slowly continue northeast into Canada. A weak
cold front will move east across the area Thursday night with cooler
air arriving with a secondary trough Friday night. High pressure
will build northeast up the Ohio Valley on Saturday.


A few showers are sneaking into the southern counties late this
afternoon focused in a region of weak surface convergence. Weak
instability along with warm air in the mid levels above 700mb is
limiting vertical growth with storms struggling to get much above 15-
20k feet. Will leave an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the
forecast for the southern counties through about 8 PM. After
that skies will tend to clear this evening before high cloud
arrives overnight. Clouds will tend to thicken and lower with
time so expecting lows to occur during the overnight hours
before warming late. Increasing humidity at the western
terminals will keep lows closer to 70 while eastern sites taper
down to near 60 in NW PA.

For Thursday we turn our attention to the trough approaching from
the plains. Low pressure over Iowa will track northeast towards
Upper Michigan on Thursday. Moisture advection occurs overnight in
advance of the trough although the low level jet energy we saw a
couple days ago has backed off. Model sounding show sufficient
moistening of the column aloft that expect to see showers expanding
into NW Ohio during the morning. Conditions will be fairly stable
with this first round so mainly expecting showers with a few
scattered thunderstorms around.

After the initial push of moisture, breaks in the showers are likely
before starting to fill back in with daytime heating. PW values will
be near 2" so thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain.
Expecting fairly cloudy conditions to have some limiting effect on
temperatures so forecast highs are only in the low to mid 80s. Any
breaks will allow for a quick jump in both temperatures and
instability. Otherwise expecting showers and thunderstorms to fill
in during the afternoon as weak front arrives from the west with
large scale lift increasing with the arrival of a mid-level dry
slot. Best forcing is focused across NW Ohio where the Storm
Prediction Center has brought a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
into NW Ohio. ML Cape only expected around 1000 J/kg during the
afternoon so that will be a limiting factor. AS the front moves east
Thursday night, storms will be tracking northeast along the frontal
boundary which could lead to some training and heavy rainfall. Rain
will taper off from west to east during the overnight as the drier
air spreads in from the west.


Some lingering showers in the East to start of Friday morning
but they should move east by the afternoon. Models continue in
good agreement moving an upper level short wave across the
forecast area on Saturday. For now will just keep chance pops

Short wave moves east of the forecast area Saturday night.  Sunday
should remain dry with ridge of surface high pressure lingering over
the Eastern lakes.


High pressure will drift east of the region Sunday night with
southerly winds returning for Monday. Expect to see some afternoon
cumulus develop across inland locations. The next storm system will
dig into the Western Great Lakes early Tuesday then drift eastward
through the day. Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday afternoon
through the overnight. For now have only gone with high end chance
POP`s which means scattered thunderstorms. However if the models
remain consistent over the next few days we will be able to nudge
POP`s higher. A cold front will cross the region at some point
Wednesday morning into the afternoon. We then will monitor for some
lake effect showers for Wednesday night.

Monday will be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. Slightly cooler Tuesday with the extra cloud cover
and showers around but still in the 80s. Cooler Wednesday with highs
dipping back into the 70s for most locations.


.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Diurnal cumulus will expand this afternoon, especially from
FDY-MFD. Can not rule out a brief shower at either location but
chances are below 20 percent so did not include in these

Otherwise a brief decrease in cloud cover expected this evening
before high clouds increase from the west overnight. These
clouds will lower with time as moisture increases ahead of low
pressure approaching from the midwest. Expecting showers to
expand late tonight and move northeast across the area into
Thursday morning. Although thunderstorms are possible with this
first round, the coverage is expected to be low so did not
include thunder prior to 18Z. Did include a few prob groups in
the western terminals where showers could be a little heavier
and drop visibilities to MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms
expected to expand across NW Ohio after 19Z and spread eastward
ahead of an upper level trough. Winds will be out of the
north and east most sites through tonight before shifting around
to the south on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR possible Thursday through Thursday
night with scattered storms.


The flow will turn to the south overnight ahead of next system.
Models in reasonable agreement with low tracking across the Northern
Lakes Thursday night dragging a cold front across Lake Erie. Choppy
conditions develop on the lake as the winds turn to the North to
Northwest behind the front.   For now will continue with 10 to 15
knots and 2 to 4 foot waves...but marginal small craft advisory is
not out of the question in the East.   High pressure builds quickly
over the lake on Saturday.




LONG TERM...Mullen
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