Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 011513
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH
RANGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY.

CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN
INDIANA BY NOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TRENDS ON RADAR WOULD MAKE
US BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THE FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN RATHER SMALL WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING BELOW THE
MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THESE SMALLER
SNOWFLAKES WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL RATES LOWER. HOWEVER THERE
STILL COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WHERE THE SNOWFLAKES
INCREASE AND SIZE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS BEING SAID LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO LOCALLY
8 INCHES INTO THE EVENING.

END TIMES OF THE ADVISORY ARE BEING LOOKED AT AND MAY BE SHORTENED
WITH LATER UPDATES. ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SNOW HAS REACHED NORTHWEST PA AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON
TRACK. VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A MILE WHICH IS GOOD FOR A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR. EXPECT THE SNOW TO PICK UP
A LITTLE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOW IS VERY WEAK AND THE FORCING
JUST ISN`T THERE TO SUPPORT ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THESE
THINGS WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM. SEE NO NEED FOR
CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY UP. THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A SHOT AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND VERY LOCALIZED IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL GET ONE QUIET DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WILL
SEE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MORNING REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO
PINPOINT. HAVE THOROUGHLY GONE THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
DO NOT THINK THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS ALL THAT GREAT. BY
THE TIME A BUBBLE OF AIR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN GETS ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AT FREEZING OR WARMER. REALISTICALLY
THINK THE PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION QUICKLY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE OVER NW PA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LAG
THE MOST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO THE DAY CREW AND LET THEM TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOPEFULLY LATER MODELS RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
TO THE NEW PACKAGE. JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOSE PERIODS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY CRASH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER FLOODING FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO AROUND AN INCH AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY TEMPS
WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. SUSPECT THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A
BRIEF BRUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE EXTREME
EAST IN LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THE
COLD FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD AT ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE OVERALL LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODERATING PATTERN AS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS
ARE NOT AS INTENSE. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SIGNS OF SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ITS HERE. THE SNOW ARRIVED IN THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THE NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. STILL
LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE EXTREME NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.