Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 142328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure over the local area will weaken
tonight. Low pressure will move east across the northern Great Lakes
Friday. A trailing cold front will extend south from the low as it
moves east across the local area Friday. A warm front will lift
north across the area Saturday as another low pressure system moves
into the central Great Lakes and weakens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cluster of lake effect snow showers continues to move east across
northeast Ohio toward northwest Pennsylvania.  The mean flow will
gradually shift to a northwest and then westerly direction through
the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours.  Once the band
sets up along the lake shore, there is the potential for more
accumulating snow along the lake shore tonight.  As the band shifts
out over the lake Friday, a cold front will approach from the west.
An swath of light snow will push southeast into the forecast area
Friday afternoon with the best moisture and dynamics occurring over
the eastern half of the forecast area. Snow accumulations during the
day Friday and Friday night will be an inch or less in the western
half of the area.  Higher accumulations will take place in the
northeast snowbelt as lake enhancement plays a role accumulating
snow. Extreme western portions of the area like Toledo and Findlay
will be less than an inch as mentioned and will see mostly a wind
shift with the cold front.

Temperatures will be a bit tricky tonight.  Upstream over Michigan,
temperatures plummeted to well below 0 degrees last night as skies
cleared out in the wake of the low pressure.  850 MB temperatures
dropped to -16 degrees over that area and cold air took place in
that area.  We are seeing clearing skies across the area tonight and
I anticipate temperatures to plummet in the western half of the
forecast area as the sun begins to set.  I have temperatures
dropping to around 10 degrees by 03z this evening over Toledo and
Findlay and then leveling off.  A similar drop will take a bit
longer over the rest of the forecast area tonight.  Keep in mind,
some 850 MB warm air advection will take place up to -14 and winds
will be west southwest.  So, I don`t anticipate the drops they had
northwest of here to occur tonight.  Highs will be quite a bit
warmer Friday and Friday night as the cold arctic air lifts out and
air mass behind cold front is not expected to be as cold.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A front will stall across Lake Erie Saturday and gradually lift
northeast as a warm front. The GFS is faster at moving the front
east while the ECMWF is slower. Isentropic lift associated with the
front will produce some light snow mainly over the eastern portion
of the forecast area. The upper flow will become more southwesterly
on Sunday and move a short wave northeast toward the region as
temperatures moderate. 850 mb temperatures warm to near or above
freezing so mainly light liquid precipitation is expected Sunday
afternoon.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday night as the weak
disturbance quickly exits the region. Above normal temperatures are
expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good amount of uncertainty remains for the forecast next week, with
GFS/ECMWF differences resulting in pop/p-type and temperature
differences. Monday starts out with a surge of warmer air moving
north across the region, with highs expected to reach 40 degrees
Monday and Tuesday. Weak vort max pushing southeast across the Great
Lakes will curtail the ridging, and may be a focus for some precip
Monday and Monday night, although model signals are weak and
inconsistent. GFS is much more energetic as with a cold front moving
through Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing widespread precip to the
area changing from rain to snow. However, ECMWF remains split with
the energy north and south of the region, and keeps the area
relatively dry through this time frame. Will keep low chance pops in
for this time frame, albeit with little confidence. Temperatures
will turn cooler for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but
still around normal for this time of year. High pressure will build
back into the area Wednesday night through Thursday, with a warming
trend expected and mainly dry conditions, aside from any lingering
lake effect snow across the snow belt.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Just a few weak returns showing up on radar east of CLE.
Forecast soundings showing a sharp inversion under 5K feet
tonight and with winds become SW overnight so any lingering
lake effect should go away. Will give a couple spots some
flurries for a few hours. The low clouds have eroded the west
half of the area but high clouds are already spilling into the
region. Expect the strato cu to continue to erode with mid level
cigs moving in overnight. A cold front is still on track for
Friday. It will bring back some lower clouds but not much in the
way of precip is expected given a dry airmass. Best chances for
a passing snow shower will be at the east end of the area
tomorrow afternoon. Do expect a period of MVFR cigs most
locations on Friday. Light flow will become S to SW after 12z
and then W to SW behind the front. Some gusts to 25 knots are
likely tomorrow afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible Friday night across the area and again
Sunday night into Monday. MVFR also possible in northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions are expected tonight as high pressure slips by
to the east. The pressure gradient will increase Friday as west to
southwest winds increase. A small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed Friday afternoon which will continue until Saturday afternoon
as the next clipper moves by well to the north.

A front will stall near the lake Saturday evening and lift northeast
on Sunday as a warm front. The front will lift farther northeast
early next as high pressure builds over the southeast states.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...LaPlante



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