Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 221123
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG HASNT BEEN AN ISSUE SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT
COULD STILL SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BRIEFLY AT ANY SITE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SHOULD
BRING FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP IS VERY SMALL. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A
BIT HIGHER MOISTURE...AROUND 1.75 INCH...REMAINS IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
SOME MODELS DO PROG A BIT OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THESE SAME
MODELS INDICATE PRECIP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AND THIS IS NOT OCCURRING. BY TUESDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
RETURN TO MARINE AREAS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS
OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS MAY STREAM INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN FLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL RESUME ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20/30 POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS NOT WILLING TO GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS ALSO
SHOWS A DECENT SPREAD IN POPS AS WELL. WILL WAIT TIL A BETTER
CONSENSUS IS REACHED BEFORE RAISING POPS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND (EXCEPT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE) AS UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR AT SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  73  87  /  10  10  20  10  20
VICTORIA          94  71  90  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  73  92  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  72  91  71  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  75  88  76  86  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           93  72  92  70  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  90  72  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  76  88  77  85  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






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