Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 291826
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
126 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DRG THE 10-14Z SAT PERIOD GENERALLY
WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN SECTIONS DRG THE 16-18Z SAT
PERIOD OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY
LGT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTN/EVENING FOLLOWED BY LGT WIND
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICT
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE REGION. OWING TO CONVECTIVE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...RECENT CIN VALUES 300-400J/KG OVER
THE CWA. YET...NAM/RAP DETERMINISTIC PROG CIN VALUES TO DISSIPATE
DRG THE AFTN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION
FOR THIS AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING FROM THE WEST AND DESTABILIZATION/
SUFFICIENT MSTR EAST. OTHERWISE...MADE TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
COVER/WIND CHANGES MAINLY TO THE CURRENT PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF
THE COAST...HOWEVER A SECONDARY AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E THROUGH MID MORNING. AM EXPECTING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BRIEFLY WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CONDITIONS DVLP LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VCT AND ALI TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND PUBLIC PACKAGE TO EXTEND SVR BOX
TIL 5 AM. PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THIS WILL SHORT AND OUT THE DOOR SO OFFICE CAN WORK
ON ON-GOING CONVECTION. SMALLER SCALE MODELS...ESPECIALLY NSSL 4
KM SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE COAST AROUND 12Z...SO HAVE
KICKED POPS UP FOR THE EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. MAY NOT SEE A
LOT OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS USUAL WHEN CONVECTION THIS
ORGANIZED BLOWS THROUGH WE ARE STABLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THUS...AM GOING TO GO VERY LITTLE ON RAIN THE AFTERNOON (20 TO 30
AT MOST) AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE TIME TO RELOAD. AFTER THAT...
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A DRYING
TREND BUT WILL STILL MENTION AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THINK NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY SINCE A CUT
OFF LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LATER SHIFTS CAN
ADJUST. COOLER ON SUNDAY THEN A BIT OF A WARMING TREND EARLY IN
THE WEEK. NO MODIFICATIONS TO SUPERBLEND DAYS 4-8 CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST THOSE VALUES A DEGREE OR
TWO DOWN THE ROAD.

MARINE...WITH PASSING OF CONVECTIVE LINE...WINDS FOR A TIME WILL
BE NORTHWEST...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHOULD SEE STABLE
AIRMASS. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  88  71  84  71  /  10  30  50  50  20
VICTORIA          72  86  69  83  69  /  10  50  50  50  30
LAREDO            75  91  71  88  72  /  20  30  40  40  20
ALICE             74  90  71  86  70  /  10  30  50  50  20
ROCKPORT          77  87  72  84  74  /  10  30  50  50  20
COTULLA           73  89  70  86  69  /  20  40  50  40  10
KINGSVILLE        74  89  71  86  71  /  10  30  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  86  74  83  75  /  10  30  40  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.