Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 222325 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated ZFPCRP to remove Heat Advisory headline. NAS Kingsville
still at 110F but that will fall to below criterion shortly. No
changes to grids yet.

See AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs.


&&

.AVIATION...

Pretty typical summertime terminal forecasts going out, with the
only issue being whether there will be some showers near the KVCT
terminal early Sunday morning. GFS time-heights are showing some
deep vertical velocities but rather high up from 11Z to about 16Z,
which could mainly mean virga. Decided to go with VCSH there about
12Z but ending about 16Z. Otherwise, SCT-BKN cirrus through the
period. Winds diminish this evening, pick up about 2-4 hours after
sunrise then back with the sea-breeze in the afternoon. No fog
forecast nor MVFR or lower CIGS expected anywhere.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

Convection has struggled thus far to develop today across South
Texas. A few showers and storms are occurring just northeast of
the area though. For the rest of the afternoon, some isolated
convection will remain possible especially across the northeast
zones. In addition, dangerous heat index values will persist
through the early evening, and the heat advisory will continue
until 6pm for the southern Coastal Bend and Jim Wells county.

A weak disturbance will approach from the east tonight into
Sunday. This could result in isolated showers and storms over Gulf
Waters and northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads. The
heat and humidity will be an issue again on Sunday. Highs will
range from 100 to 105 over the Brush Country and Rio Grande to
mid/upper 90s over the Victoria Crossroads. Widespread heat index
values of 105 to 109 will common across South Texas, with advisory
levels conditions possible over the southern Coastal Bend and
southern sections of the Brush Country.

Warm and muggy nights will continue tonight and again on Sunday
night. Overnight lows will be the 70s inland to lower 80s along
the immediate coast under partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Upper level low pulls across the area on Monday, but lack of
moisture should limit any rain chances. By Tuesday moisture begins
to increase across the area with the return of a more southeasterly
flow. Will maintain mainly slight chance pops for Monday and Tuesday
with upper level energy off to the west by this time and high
pressure building aloft. By later in the week moisture decreases a
bit as surface high pressure builds westward and winds become more
southerly once again. Temperatures change very little through the
period with seasonal highs in the 90s to just above 100. Low
temperatures remain in the 70s area wide. High humidity levels will
keep heat index values in at least the 105 to 109 range through the
week with around 110 possible at times. Expect mainly moderate
daytime winds through the period with winds at night subsiding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  95  78  96  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          78  97  77  97  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
Laredo            79 103  78 102  79  /   0  10  10  10   0
Alice             77 101  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          83  94  82  94  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           77 102  77 102  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        78  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       83  94  83  93  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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