Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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480
FXUS64 KCRP 161751 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1151 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Based on slowly increasing ceilings, model soundings/time heights,
and trends, it appears that conditions will improve (no wintry
precip) at KVCT and KLRD by 16/23Z, then KALI and KCRP at 02Z and
03Z respectively. Concurrently, these terminals will begin to see
improved CIGS during that time, as the isentropic pattern
diminishes/ends. Since precipitation is more scattered now, will
go with TEMPO groups rather than categorical. Since temperatures
are just about freezing now if not below, have ZR with PL in the
terminals. Winds will taper off as CIGS improve as mentioned
before, with VFR conditions at KVCT around 17/00Z (KLRD about the
same time), then KALI AOA 17/02Z and KCRP 17/03Z. Should stay VFR
after that. North winds will generally continue to decrease
through the period, with no precipitation expected as drier air
comes in.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...Freezing line continues to shift south this morning
and nearly all of S TX should be below freezing by early afternoon.
Areas of light rain/light drizzle continue across the southern
portions of the CWA with light freezing rain/freezing drizzle
mixed with sleet occurring across the far western and northern
half of S TX. Expect most areas to transition to periods of light
freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet through the afternoon...with
possibly a transition to all sleet occurring by mid to late
afternoon as the sfc-H9 layer cools further.

The back edge of light precip should begin to progress from NW to
SE by early to mid afternoon as drier air works its way into the
aforementioned sfc-H9 layer. Guidance continues to trend faster
with this occurrence...and as such precip should end earlier this
evening than previously forecast. Therefore, the expiration time
of the Winter Weather Advisory has been changed to this evening
(rather than late tonight).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    35  28  38  33  47  /  60  30  10  20  30
Victoria          31  23  39  28  45  /  60  20  10  10  20
Laredo            36  28  37  31  41  /  60  10  10  10  20
Alice             35  27  37  32  45  /  60  20  10  20  30
Rockport          37  27  39  34  48  /  60  30  10  20  20
Cotulla           33  27  38  30  42  /  60  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        37  28  38  32  47  /  60  20  10  20  30
Navy Corpus       40  29  40  37  50  /  60  30  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Jim Wells...Kleberg...
     Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Duval...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...
     Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...
     Webb.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday For the following zones: Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...
     Victoria.

     Wind Chill Warning until 6 PM CST this evening For the following
     zones: Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...Victoria.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon For the following
     zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Goliad...Kleberg...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Bee...Duval...Goliad...La Salle...Live
     Oak...McMullen...Webb.

GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight For the following zones:
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM CST this afternoon For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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