Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 192359
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
559 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period. Light winds will gradually
become more southeasterly throughout the day on Monday as high
pressure shifts further to the east of the region.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Cool temperatures today with a weak northeast wind as surface high
pressure settles into the region. This won`t last long, tho, as
the high is slated to move east with onshore flow returning late
tonight into Monday. Deep moisture in the lower levels is expected
to be slow to return but be sufficient enough for isolated shower
activity mainly across the waters for Monday and Monday night.
This should be aided by mid level lift from an approaching long
wave trough and nosing in of the upper jet from the west.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer for Monday, with highs
reaching into the lower 70s across most locations, with a few
locations still near the upper 60s especially farther north along
the coast toward Port O`Connor and Port Lavaca. Overnight lows
Monday night will also show the warming trend with lows in the
50s.

MARINE (Tonight)...

Winds and seas continue to further diminish and subside. Have
allowed the Small Craft Advisories over the bays and nearshore
waters to expire. Will continue the SCA over the offshore waters
from 20 to 60 nautical miles out through 6 pm. Latest obs from Buoy
19 showing seas have fallen to near 7.5 feet.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

A weak coastal trough along with adequate moisture will be over the
coastal waters Tuesday. Lift associated with the left exit region of
a strong upper jet diving south through Texas will provide a slight
chance of showers. A short wave trough moving through Texas Tuesday
will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night. Best rain
chances will remain over the Gulf but there will be a slight chance
of rain along the coast. Another surge of high pressure will move
into the region late Tuesday night with SCA conditions likely over
the Gulf waters Wednesday. Thanksgiving will be cool and dry as
surface high pressure settles into the region. A warming trend will
occur by the weekend as the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
Thursday builds eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    51  71  57  81  56  /   0  10  10  10  20
Victoria          43  70  55  78  54  /   0  10  10  10  10
Laredo            49  71  54  81  54  /   0  10  10   0  10
Alice             47  72  55  83  54  /   0  10  10  10  10
Rockport          54  70  62  78  57  /   0  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           44  71  50  81  50  /   0  10  10   0  10
Kingsville        50  73  56  83  56  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       58  71  62  79  61  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION


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