Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 272338
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT WOULD BE THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LIGHT FOG AT VCT AND ALI. HAVE JUST TEMPO 5SM GROUPS FOR THOSE
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A DRIER/SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS. CTR OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
ACROSS N AND W TX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING A NLY FLOW ALOFT
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SE TX AND THE NW
GULF OF MEX RESULTING IN A LIGHT GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW BUT VRB
OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A LAND BREEZE BRIEFLY DVLPG TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS. ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WILL BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG
BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MN TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT
WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DUE TO THE DRIER ENVIRNOMENT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BY SUNDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS BACK TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. BOTH 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS
SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AND
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES FROM MONDAY-THURSDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTHEAST. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POSITION OF THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT DIURNAL TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CONTINUED
DRY FORECAST FOR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  95  71  92  74  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          66  97  68  94  71  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            72 103  73 100  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             69  99  70  97  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          74  92  75  90  77  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           70 101  71  99  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68 100  69  94  72  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  91  76  89  78  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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