Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 031139 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG THIS MORNING OVER KVCT AND KALI SHOULD BE DONE NO
LATER THAN 14Z. VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04/06Z. AS
WITH 06Z TAFS...QUESTION REMAINS ON THE CONVECTION. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE VCTS AT KALI AND KCRP WHERE EARLIER ADVERTISED...
BUT DROPPED THE PROB30 AT KCRP AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
A TEMPO BUT CANNOT KEEP THE PROB30 BEFORE 21Z (AND THINK AFTER 21Z
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TO BE WEST OF TERMINAL). OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO 06Z TERMINALS ISSUANCE BEFORE 04/06Z. AFTER 04/06Z...DID
PUT IN MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT BUT THINK OTHER AREA WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GOES IR SOUNDER DATA AND
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF BAFFIN BAY.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY CAPPED EXCEPT OVER THE GULFMEX AND
NEAR THE COAST. STILL...ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE CAP IS LACKING. MAY ONLY SEE
SHOWERS (IF ANY) FARTHER INLAND...BUT DECIDED TO STAY WITH THUNDER.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT-
DRIVEN. DRIER AIR IN ON TUESDAY BUT STILL MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A SHOWER/STORM OR TWO BUT MAY BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
THINGS DRY INLAND...WITH MAYBE SOMETHING OFFSHORE. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A NON-RAIN FORECAST BUT THE AFTERNOON SHIFT OR NEW MIDNIGHT
SHIFT ON TUESDAY MAY NEED TO PUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OVER
THE GULFMEX. HEAT INDICES TODAY 105 TO 109 INCLUSIVE MOST SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY 110F OR MORE IN A LOCATION OR TWO (HANDLE WITH
SPS). SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE/NORTHERN WATERS. LESS IF ANY ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS UP A BIT MORE BUT BELOW SCA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AS UPPER LVL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION. WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WILL
HELP TO KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH
ONLY 10 POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SCEC WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES DURING
THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 105 TO 109 EACH DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  78  96  78  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  77  98  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           104  80 103  78 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  77  99  76 100  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          95  81  94  81  95  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 101  77 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  77  97  78  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  91  81  93  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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