Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 291456
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
956 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLDER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RETURNING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING FLURRIES OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH AT TIMES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN CLOUD DECKS AND SEEING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. 2-3KFT CLOUDS OVER THE LAURELS AND FAR NRN TIER ARE THE
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DECKS. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SE WILL DO
LITTLE TO MAR A NICE BUT COLDER-THAN-RECENT DAY. MAXES ON TRACK
WITH 8H TEMPS INCHING DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND MEAGER MOISTURE
THAT WILL GET PULLED OFF THE LAKES WILL MAKE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS
THE FAR NRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EVEN THE NAM HAS NOW
CAUGHT ON AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF BEING A WET OUTLIER AND HAS
KNOCKED OUT ALL PRECIP FROM THE CWA WHICH WOULD BE DUE TO THIS
WAVE.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS/PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
AND TUE...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAURELS ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE
RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
2015 DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK
INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN LIKELY THE MOST DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH AND EAST
OF PA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND A MORE MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE SALIENT POINT IN THIS IS THAT THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND MODEL FORECASTS ALIGN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AT BFD ALL DAY AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHILLY...SHALLOW AIR MASS.
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE A FEW FLURRIES AT BFD...BUT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ONLY A FEW PATCHES
OF MVFR IN THE SW THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STRETCH FAR
TO THE EAST AND ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR TO LAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKES OR ON UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO JST WILL BE THE ONLY POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIP UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.