Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281934
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
334 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard later today
setting up a warmer and more humid airflow beginning on
Thursday. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in
the humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Current observations continue to indicate partly to mostly
sunny skies across the region with sfc high pressure centered
over the Middle Atlantic states. Thicker cu field is noted over
the northern half of central PA. Regardless, no pcpn is expected
today with high temperatures mainly in the 70s.

IR satellite imagery shows wide north to south oriented bands
of cirrus moving into western PA ahead of convection over Great
Lakes region. This will spread east through the evening hours
with little expected affect on sensible weather.

The surface high will move east of the area tonight with
another comfortable sleeping night in store with dewpoints
still only in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
By Thursday the eastern US will be under a broad upper ridge,
but close to the southern edge of the main westerlies. A warmer
and more humid airmass will begin to advect into the region
between the offshore high and a low moving north of the Gr
Lakes. Deterministic models develop a fair amount of CAPE and
mid level lapse rates are forecast in the 6-7C/km range, so an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm is likely in a few spots. SPC
Day 2 convective outlook has northwestern third of CWA in a
marginal risk for severe and remainder of CWA in general
thunder. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered at best and
will likely be in the mid afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not a lot of change from yesterday.

Main thing was to edge POPS down a little on Friday.
Cold front moves toward the area on Friday, but holds
off to later Saturday. Thus highest chc of showers and
storms will be on Saturday.

Left Sunday Night into Monday Night dry. However, the cold
front will not be very far to the south.

Some hints of a chance of showers and storms next Tuesday
into Wed. Perhaps Thursday, but left Thursday mainly dry,
given other recent guidance.

Was thinking yesterday that we see more typical temperature
and dewpoints for early summer later this week into next
week. Still seeing that, but now a a cool down toward the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure building into the area from the Ohio Valley will
supply mainly VFR conditions and light wind today through
tonight and into Thursday morning. Localized vis restrictions
from fog will possible again Thursday morning but should be less
widespread than this morning.


.OUTLOOK...

Thu-Fri...Isolated PM tsra impacts poss, mainly northern Pa.

Sat...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.

Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Gartner
NEAR TERM...Gartner
SHORT TERM...La Corte/Gartner
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Gartner



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