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000
FXUS61 KCTP 020906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND A GENERAL DECREASE IN
RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECREASED POPS FOR SE ZONES AS RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN
WILL MISS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THIS AREA...BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS STILL W OF CWA AND REGION IN SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WEEK...LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO PA AND REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
LIMITING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AGAIN
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
/AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY
CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN
AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/. HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE
TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE
A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT 06Z AT KBFD AND KLNS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MINIMAL OVER MUCH OF CWA...HOWEVER BROADER AREA
OF SHOWERS SLOWLY CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
KLNS AND KMDT AREAS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS /THOUGH STEADIER
PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST/.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR