Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS OF NORTHEASTERN PENN EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 11-3.9 UM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS FOG IN THE DEEPER
RIVER/STREAM VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

LOW TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z...LEAVING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WITH JUST SOME FLAT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CU - TOPPED BY STREAKS
OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN.

MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHC FOR
SHOWERS TODAY ACRS THE REGION...EVEN THOUGH A VERY WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL PENN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE U70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT AS THE MEAN 850-500 MB FLOW FROM THE WEST HELPS TO
TRANSPORT IN NOTABLY HIGHER PWAT AIR /OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE IN A MUCH TIGHTER
RANGE...IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S.

A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING
RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF NRN AND WESTERN
PENN.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL WARM BY 2-4F COMPARED TO SATURDAY/S HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS
SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THIS
FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. BFD BRIEFLY
WENT BELOW IFR...AS HAS UNV...AND CONSIDERING THE CLEAR SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE PATCHY FOG IS LESS DENSE THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
SO IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDEER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A
CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



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