Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 042331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
ENDLESS MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS ENTERING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING
DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN
NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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