Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 270710
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A warm, and increasingly humid, pattern will persist into Saturday
night/Sunday as an upper ridge over the eastern CONUS amplifies
downstream of an upper level low pressure system as it works from
the southern Rockies into the central plains. This will allow
temperatures to climb into the mid 80s area-wide both today and
Saturday with minimum temperatures holding in the mid/upper 60s as
low level moisture increases and limits radiational cooling to a
greater degree heading into the weekend. Patchy fog will also be
possible early this morning generally along/north of I-69 as the
leading edge of this more humid air mass expands through lower MI.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will also increase to some
degree as instability edges upward within the increasingly humid air
mass. That said, most forcing will remain well west of the area, so
any activity will be rather disorganized over the next several days.

The aforementioned upper low pressure system then opens and lifts
through the central Great Lakes on Sunday, providing better forcing
for shower and thunderstorm development. With moderately unstable
conditions expected during the passage of this system, suspect that
Sunday will be the best chance of widespread rainfall during the
next week. Even so, the convective nature will most likely leave
some locations dry as the upper system itself passes north of the
area and southern lower Michigan remains in the warm sector.

Conditions cool in the wake of this low pressure system as the upper
pattern evolves into a shallow upper trough over the area early next
week. High temperatures will edge back to around 80 degrees. In the
meantime, with less humid conditions, low temperatures will fall
into the 50s to around 60. A second upper trough will then work into
the area late in the forecast period as upper level low pressure
tracks slowly east across southern Canada. This will bring a renewed
chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday
after a quiet start to the week.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure off the east coast and broad low pressure slowly
tracking eastward through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest will
maintain fairly light south to southeast flow through Saturday. A
warm and humid airmass will promote fog development over the cold
waters of Lake Huron today (especially northern portions of the
lake), while also keeping chances for thunderstorms in the forecast.
Thunderstorm coverage through Saturday is expected to remain fairly
low. Low pressure tracking across Ontario will push a weak cold
front across the Central Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. This
will bring a better chance for thunderstorms as well as a modest
increase in southerly winds Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

AVIATION...

Increasing nocturnal stability will restrict the potential for
additional convective development overnight.  With that said, a very
low probability will linger through the overnight hours.  The influx
of higher low level moisture will introduce the possibility for some
shallow fog and/or low stratus development during the early morning
period.  Largely favor MVFR conditions at this stage, but possible
IFR particularly at MBS/FNT aided by the earlier rainfall.  There
will again be at least a low probability for thunderstorm
development late Friday.

FOR DTW...There remains little evidence per recent radar and
satellite trends to suggest showers/thunderstorms will impact the
airspace overnight. This will leave a clear sky across the lowest
5000 ft into tonight. Some form of low stratus and/or fog
development possible during the early morning period, before mixing
into a low VFR stratocu by late morning.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for ceiling 5000 FT or less prior to 09z, then moderate
  Friday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms affecting DTW/D21 airspace through Friday
  evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....MR


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