Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281139
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
539 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 352 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

The main concerns in the short term will be the potential for
extreme fire weather danger today and the potential for severe
weather this evening south and east of a Unionville to Kansas City
line. However, before that, we will experience a very warm day to
end the last day of February and the last day of climatological
winter. Temperatures are already well above the normal highs for the
area early this morning as temperatures are running in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Continued Strong WAA ahead of an approaching cold
front today will help highs rise into the 70s for all but NW
Missouri where the cold front will move through by early afternoon.
Also, this afternoon with temperatures rising into the 70s and strong
southwest winds, dewpoints will plummet with deep mixing setting the
stage for extreme fire danger (see fire weather discussion below).

The cold front will continue to slowly sink into the CWA this
evening as a upper level trough provides the forcing and we see
enhanced convergence along the cold front. This is when thunderstorm
initiation is expected. Storms are expected to quickly become linear
in nature leaving damaging winds as the main threat especially with
0-6km shear around 70kts. The shear is nearly unidirectional so
tornadoes are not favored however, the potential for an isolated
tornado is still possible. Storms will continue to slide
southeastward through the CWA tonight wind winds continuing to be
the threat until around midnight. In addition to the pre-frontal
thunderstorms there will be showers and isolated storms behind the
front. Colder air will filter in behind the front however all
precipitation should remain remain rain with perhaps a brief period
of a mix late tonight as temperatures drop into the mid 30s across
northern Missouri.

Showers should shift east of the area by Wednesday providing a much
cooler day however temperatures will still be slightly above normal
with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Thursday high pressure will
move into the region providing copious sunshine and allow
temperatures to rise into the upper 40s to upper 50s despite weak
mixing. Friday and Saturday, the upper level flow become zonal
providing a warming trend. High pressure will remain in control
Friday morning before shifting east during the afternoon and allowing
for a return to southerly flow. Expect highs in the 50s to near 60.
Saturday continued WAA will allow temperatures to further rise into
the 60s. The next chance for precipitation will come on Sunday as
warm advection showers will be possible with temperatures rising
into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night/early Monday a cold
front will move through the area keeping precipitation chances going
as well as cooling temperatures back into the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

MVFR cigs are affecting the terminals this morning with the
exception of STJ which remains just north of a stratus deck
around 2kft. These MVFR cigs will affect the terminals thru 17Z
when cigs should lift and sct out although there will be a ovc
cirrus deck above. Winds will be out of the SW today around 15kts
with gusts to 25kts. This evening a cold front will approach the
terminal veering winds to the northwest around 15kts gusting to
20-25kts. Thunderstorms may also accompany this front so have
included a tempo for thunderstorms btn 03Z-07Z. Models also
suggest another round of MVFR cigs behind the front however they
are expected to quickly lift out of the terminals by 07Z-09Z.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 352 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

Extreme fire danger is expected this afternoon across east
central KS and west central MO including the Kansas City Metro.
Strong southwesterly winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as
35 mph will help mix down some very dry air aloft and relative
humidity values are expected to quickly fall this afternoon into
the 15 to 25 percent range. Couple that with the cured grasses and
other dry fuels and extreme fire danger is expected. Outdoor
burning should be avoided as any fuels that do ignite will quickly
burn out of control.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     MOZ028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73
Fire Weather...73



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