Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300526
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

Areas of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeast across the region, in an area of strong isentropic
ascent and high precipitable water. A brief break is possible
between the strongest isentropic lift this evening and a pre-
frontal trough/weak LLJ that will push up to near the KS/MO border
just before sunrise Sunday, but total rainfall amounts are still
expected to exceed 3 inches across southeastern portions of the
forecast area and near 2 inches from the KC metro northeastward.
Although rainfall has been relatively steady, the higher amounts
have resulted in areal and river flooding especially south of
Highway 50, which will be exacerbated by additional rainfall this
evening and again tomorrow, so have kept the Flash Flood Watch in
effect through tomorrow.

A dry slot will move into the region by late morning Sunday,
allowing for a few small, brief breaks in the stratus and a wind
shift to the south, bringing temperatures into the upper 50s to
perhaps even mid 60s across central MO. Additional light rain will
sweep through at least the northwestern quadrant of the forecast
area on the back side of the surface low Sunday night, then the
system will gradually depart Monday morning.

The next chance for precipitation will come Tuesday night and
Wednesday as another trough swings through the region. This system
will not be nearly as robust until it is past our area, and the
heaviest precipitation will stay near the surface low which should
pass south of the CWA.

In general, at least slightly below normal temperatures are
expected through the forecast period with a southerly position of
the upper jet and several systems bringing colder air aloft into
the Plains and Midwest. Warmer conditions may be on the way just
beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

IFR ceilings are prevailing at the terminals with these conditions
expected to worsen through dawn. LIFR ceilings will be possible
despite the rain moving out as plentiful low-level moisture
remains locked in the region. Another round of rain will move
through the terminal areas later this morning but looks like it`ll
clear out by midday as a dry slot takes over. Look for winds to
become southerly during the day, shifting more from the SW later
this evening as a low pressure system approaches the region.
Lowered ceilings are anticipated to move back in, along with
additional rain showers.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...lg



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