Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 100517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2016

Surface high pressure is moving slowly off to the east, allowing for
some very slight warming as return flow moves into the area.
Temperatures this afternoon have reached the upper 20s to lower 30s.
While tonight will see temperatures drop back into the upper teens
to lower 20s tonight should be the last of this current cold spell,
before temperatures return closer to normal, or even slightly above
normal for the weekend. There will be a chance for some very light
snow north of HWY 36, probably north of the MO/IA border on
Saturday. While the bulk of the snow looks to form across Iowa and
areas further north, the far northern reaches of Missouri could see
some very light snow with little to no accumulation.

For Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will
rise well above freezing for the first time in several days, as
strong warm air advection pushes warmer and moister air into the
area. With the better push of moist air into the area, but with a
lack of any appreciable forcing cloud cover will dominate for
Sunday, and we could even see some light drizzle or light rain.
Areas along and north of I-70, and likely even north of HWY 36 could
see temperatures struggle to get above freezing through early
Sunday, so precipitation that falls could fall as either light snow
or light freezing drizzle. However, by midday on Sunday, it should
become all snow, with some very modest accumulations expected.

The next plunge of arctic air will then affect the area for the
early to middle part of next week. By Tuesday night a strong cold
front will push into the area ahead of a strong surface ridge.
Tuesday night will then likely spell the end of above-freezing
temperatures through the rest of next week as the arctic air settles
in. The next chance for widespread appreciable snow will come during
the middle part of next week, likely in the Wed/Thurs time frame as
a weak mid level wave embedded within the northwest mid level flow
will glide through the area. Models are divergent on how intense
this system will be with the ECMWF indicating very light amounts,
and the GFS perhaps indicating a more aggressive solution with
slightly more formidable amounts. Will avoid getting too bogged down
in any of those details this far out, but unless something
dramatically changes as the system approaches, not expecting much in
the way of accumulation from the mid week system.

Cold air is then expected to linger through the rest of the week and
into/through the weekend as another surface ridge reinforces the
cold air.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST FRI DEC 9 2016

Extensive VFR stratus deck from 5-6k ft will cover the entire region
through Saturday morning. Should see these clouds begin to thin out over
parts of east central KS and west central MO by late afternoon and
spread northeast during the evening hours. Winds will remain light
through Saturday morning, increasing over western MO in the
afternoon.

A few flurries are possible across northern MO but no snow accumulations.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...MJ



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