Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 281122
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.
By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.
The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period,
and winds will gradually increase out of the southwest this morning,
gusting to 20 to 25 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours.