Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 122341
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. CHANCES FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND WITH
LINGERING CLOUDINESS. LIGHT RAINS MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE EVENING.
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...VALLEY AND LOWLAND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EARLY IN THE MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY DURING THE EVENING AND
SPREAD SE. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE
MENDOCINO...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO A
BIT LESS THAN WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM. RAINS WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG OVER THE E PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING THE TIMING AND QPF SPECIFICS...SO HAVE
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ONSHORE TODAY
PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AT THE
COASTAL AIRFIELDS KCEC AND KACV. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THE
SHALLOW MOIST AIR WILL SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY TONIGHT...EVEN AS
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
OR VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS DRYING EASTERLIES SLOWLY KICK
IN. THERE MAY EVEN BE BRIEF IFR IN FOG THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS OR MIST IN THE MORNING SAT WILL SCOUR OUT WITH HEATING
AND MIXING. AT UKIAH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS 0Z TAF CYCLE...THOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUD MAY DRIFT OVER
THE AIRFIELD THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW 10 FT ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SWELL...WAVE STEEPNESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVE GENERATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO THIS WEEKEND AND WAVES SHOULD BECOME STEEPER AS THE SWELL
HEIGHTS SUBSIDE AND SWELL PERIODS DECREASE. THE DURATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLIES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SHORT PERIOD WAVE
GROWTH. HOWEVER...COMBINED SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 10 FT
WITH SHORTER PERIODS ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO.  MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE RIDGING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES CONTINUING ON
MON. THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL START TO BREAKDOWN AROUND MID
WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. CONFIDENCE WITH
THE WIND FORECAST FOR WED IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT FORM. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARD THE NCEP/WPC
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

$$

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