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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 251147
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
417 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
persist through the week into the weekend as high pressure
continues to persist over the East Pacific Ocean.

.DISCUSSION...Overnight temperatures were much warmer than the
previous nights. Mostly clear skies prevailed over the area, along
with patches of low clouds along the Redwood Coast and Eel River
drainage basin. With the upper level ridge axis pushing east towards
the West Coast, do expect another sunny and warm day across NW
California. Highs will be in the mid 80s for interior locations, 60s
along the coast.

Even warmer temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs
around 90 degrees in interior locations. By Thursday, the upper
level ridge will push east of our area, and we will start to feel
the influence of a broad upper level trough off the coast of Pacific
Northwest. With onshore flow, temperatures will be slightly cooler
on Thursday and Friday. The ridge will rebuild over the area for the
weekend, leading to warmer temperatures then.

This pattern doesn`t favor precipitation. Do expect dry conditions
to prevail for the next 7 days.

.AVIATION...Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are in place
across the area this morning. A few areas of stratus are in place
along the coast north of Cape Mendocino. High clouds are making it
difficult to see the extent of the low stratus. This is making
confidence lower than average this morning. Any stratus around is
expected to dissipate by midday. This afternoon breezy winds are
expected along the coast with gusts up to 25 kt. Tonight offshore
flow strengthens and there is little to no stratus expected. Winds
at the surface will diminish once again. MKK

.MARINE...Northerly winds and seas persist across the outer waters
with light and variable winds closer to the coast. Waves at the
buoys have increased slightly to around 6 to 8 feet around 7
seconds. This afternoon winds will increase with the diurnal
heating of the day and will push the stronger northerly winds in
closer to the coast. Have issued a small craft advisory for these
increased winds and waves. Today the strongest winds will be over
the southern outer waters. Tonight and Tuesday the strongest
winds will shift to the northern outer waters as the high pressure
starts to weaken.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday models are in decent agreement
that winds will rapidly diminish to less than 5 kt. Seas will also
diminish, but a bit more slowly. Thursday some light southerly
winds are possible, but these should be less than 5 kt. Friday
high pressure starts to build back into the area bringing a return
to stronger northerly winds. Northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt are
expected through the weekend. Models are in decent agreement on
this.

A northwest swell will fluctuate around 2 to 4 feet at 10 to 12
seconds and is expected to persist through the week. MKK

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions for the work week. Do expect
gusty offshore winds through Tuesday night. Strongest winds will be
at ridge top level. Models show that NE winds of 20 to 30 kt can be
found at 925 mb and 850 mb level. If there is enough diurnal
heating, the lower part of the atmosphere should be well mixed
enough such that the stronger winds can get down to the surface
level. Minimum RH will be around 20 percent. Overnight recoveries
will be poor, at around 40 percent, especially along the ridges. The
combination of low RH and gusty offshore winds can lead to
marginally critical fire weather conditions for Tuesday and Tuesday
night for Mendocino, Lake, and eastern Trinity counties.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT
Tuesday for PZZ450-455.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470-475.

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see the forecast zone map online:
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