Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 041139
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. ..WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES
REMAIN ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AREA RADARS SHOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND AS WELL.
FRIDAY NIGHTS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DELAY THE START OF
CONVECTION TODAY UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE WHITE MTNS AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

SEEING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AZ ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY TODAY AND THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER MOVES TO
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THUS MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES GOING...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WORKING INTO WESTERN AZ TUESDAY NIGHT
/WEDNESDAY. AREAS WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE SHOULD BE DRY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
CURRENT PROGS VERIFY. AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE STILL HANG ON TO SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE...THOUGH NOT AS RICH AS WHAT WE HAVE OVERHEAD THIS
WEEKEND.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WDSPRD BKN-OVC WITH BASES FROM
9-12KFT AGL WILL BECOME SCT-BKN BY 15Z-17Z. STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND THE
SAME TIME. BY 18Z-20Z...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME STRATIFORM AGAIN AFT 02Z-03Z SUN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE AND MOIST MONSOON PATTERN WILL BRING
DAYTIME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AT NIGHT...WITH DEBRIS CLOUD
AND SCATTERED STRATIFORM SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE...WITH FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION / FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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