Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 010251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
751 PM MST WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect fair weather tonight. Monsoon moisture will
increase across Arizona Thursday and Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Northland. A drying trend
will start Saturday as a Pacific trough brings southwesterly flow
into northern Arizona.


.UPDATE...A few isolated light showers continue this evening with
the most pronounced shower activity continuing over central Gila
County. Activity will continue to diminish through the late
evening hours, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out
overnight as moisture continues to increase across the area.
Current forecast handles the trends well with no updates needed at
this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /227 PM MST/...Moisture and instability look to
increase substantially Thursday and Friday across all of northern
Arizona. An increase in thunderstorm coverage and potential for
stronger storms is anticipated each day.

A Pacific trough looks to move inland and across the mountain west
this weekend, with dry southwesterly flow aloft. The monsoon
moisture plume should be moving eastward on Saturday, with precip
chances decreasing or ending from west to east through the day.

Dry weather is forecast for Sunday and Monday across the
northland, cool morning low temperatures (lower 40s) should be
expected in the mountains. Expect breezy southwest winds during
the afternoons.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Only a slight chance of -SHRA
overnight south of KFLG-KRQE line. Scattered SHRA/TSRA in most
areas after 18Z Thursday with local MVFR conditions possible in
stronger storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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