Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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