Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
310 AM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system currently over Mexico will
gradually move northward across Arizona over the next few days.
Look for an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across
northern Arizona today and tonight lasting into Friday. Drier air
is forecast to move in over the weekend. Near normal temperatures
will continue.


.DISCUSSION...A weak low centered over Baja California this
morning will gradually move northward across Arizona over the next
few days. For Today...The flow aloft will gradually shift to a
more moist southerly direction. The best combination of moisture
and upward motion will be from about the Mogollon Rim southward
where the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will reside.

Overnight...Moisture and upward motion associated with the Baja
low will continue to move northward with the chance for showers
spreading northward to the Utah/Arizona border.

For Wednesday through Friday...Moisture will remain across northern
Arizona. In association with the northward moving low and general
large-scale upward motion the potential for additional showers
and thunderstorms will continue. The best chance for
thunderstorms will generally be from the afternoon into the early
evening hours in response to peak daytime heating and instability.

From Saturday into early next week...The models are promising a
drier push of air. If this pattern develops expect mild daytime
temperatures, mainly clear skies and locally breezy conditions. In
other words, fall weather.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Widely scattered -SHRA south of a
KPRC-KINW line expected through 18Z...then scattered -SHRA/-TSRA
spreading northward through the day. MVFR conditions possible in
heavier storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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