Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasingly breezy conditons for the rest of
the week, with a slight chance of showers and a gradual cooling
trend. A return to warm and dry conditions will develop later in
the weekend and into next week.


.DISCUSSION...A pair of weak s/wvs will move through the Great Basin
in the next few days, specifically later on Wednesday and then again
by Friday. We expect a gradual cooling trend, along with increasing
southwest winds, as a result. There will also be enough mid-level
moisture and cooling to support a few showers through the end of the
week. By late in the weekend and early next week, models indicate
another high amplitude ridge will build over the area, raising our
temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. Current grids/text
look fine, no updates needed.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the
24 hour period. Sky cover becmg BKN-OVC by Wednesday afternoon, with
cigs gradually lowering to 10-12kft agl. Wind speeds generally light.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will continue on Wednesday.
A weak disturbance will bring cloudy conditions and a chance of
showers to the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Wetting rain is
not expected. Southwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph by Thursday

Friday through Sunday...Expect windy conditions on Friday, with a
continued chance of showers. Drier and cooler air arrives Saturday,
along with a wind switch to the north or northwest. High pressure
will build aggressively Sunday and into next week, for a return to
above normal temperatures and very dry surface conditions.






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