Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261028
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. LIGHT FLURRIES
WILL ALSO PERSIST NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF...EVEN INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTER A WINDY DAY MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARRIVES BY ABOUT TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY COLD UPPER LOW WAS NOTED ON IR IMAGERY ABOUT 80
MILES NE OF KFLG THIS MORNING. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW...DYNAMIC
FORCING STILL EXISTS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THIS AREA WILL SEE SOME ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHUSKAS AS THE COLD POCKET AT 500MB PASSES THROUGH THIS REGION LATER
TODAY. FROM KFLG NORTH AND NORTHWEST...VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST IN UPSLOPE AREAS DUE TO NW FLOW. IT HAS BEEN SNOWING HERE
AT THE OFFICE FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WE CAN SEE THE STARS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT THESE AREAS OF
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...TONIGHT...AND EVEN ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH AND INTO ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE COLD
AIR ALOFT.

SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KFLG...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES AND MUCH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY CLOUDS
OR QPF.

DRIER AIR AND RISING HGHTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DUE SOMETIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE
TIMING AND WESTWARD RETROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS SLOWLY INCREASING. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
FIRST SERIOUS WINTER STORM THREAT OF THIS WINTER MAY BE ON THE NEAR
HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF A PAYSON-WINSLOW-KAYENTA LINE
THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 02Z. SFC WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS DURING THE 24HR PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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