Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 272255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 PM MST Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure center will move southeast across Arizona
through Tuesday with winds, clouds, showers and thunderstorms.
Drying conditions are expected Tuesday night. Fair weather is
expected Wednesday and early Thursday before another system arrives
late Thursday into Saturday.

.DISCUSSION...A trough of low pressure is moving across Arizona with
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Wet weather will
continue through Tuesday. Snow levels will rapidly fall to around
6000 feet late tonight. However, the quick moving nature of this
system combined with a lack of moisture will limit snow amounts to
an inch or two above 7000-7500 feet.

There will be a return to dry and sunny weather Wednesday and
Thursday as weak ridging moves over the area. However, the active
weather pattern will bring another storm system into northern
Arizona Thursday night into Friday. This will bring another round of
showers and possible thunderstorms as well as windy conditions.
Models are beginning to close in on a solution with the low moving
into New Mexico by Saturday morning with wrap around moisture and
cold air moving over Arizona. This is a cold system that could bring
snow levels down to 5000 feet with high temperatures 10-15 degrees
below normal for this time of years. Stay tuned to the forecast over
the coming days!


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect lowering ceilings and
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible under the stronger
storms. Snow levels are forecast to remain between 8-9 kft msl
throughout the day, but will drop to around 6 kft after 03Z-06Z
Tuesday. As a result, snow showers will be possible at KFLG and KGCN
late tonight through Tuesday morning. In addition, expect southwest
winds from 10-20 kts with gusts from 20-30 kts this afternoon and
early evening. Most of the shower activity will shift to areas east
of a KPGA-KPAN line after 12Z Tuesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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