Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221048
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 3 AM...A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUED
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WILLIAMS TO NORTH OF
WINSLOW...INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
HAVE BEEN 0.10-0.30 INCH IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...TO NEAR THE 4-CORNERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHEAST AZ IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND COOLEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. BY TUESDAY...EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL SHOW THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH DIPPING A BIT FARTHER INTO OUR REGION...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE POISED JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO MOVE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH TOO FAR EAST FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...BUT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EURO/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 03Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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