Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010428
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
928 PM MST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SNOW LEVELS RANGED
FROM 7000 TO 7500 FEET.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN AN UNSTABLE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. OVERNIGHT SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 7000 TO 7500 FEET ELEVATION.
ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET ELEVATION BY AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ON MONDAY SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WET WEATHER
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECAST. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD LOW WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD AND WET WEATHER RETURNS AS OUR LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
EXTENDED SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A FEW MOSTLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE. AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL AUTHOR
THE CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DELIVER
WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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