Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281625
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. STORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY FORECAST CHANGES THIS
MORNING BUT WILL SPEND THE TIME REFINING THE FORECAST FROM TONIGHT
ONWARD. NOT SEEING THE NEED FOR ANY MENTION OF STORM FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IN THE WHITE MTNS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION WE EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE SCATTERED COVERAGE FORECAST MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO LIFT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE EACH DAY.

THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO BRING DRIER AIR BACK
INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORTH AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED STORMS. THE SEASONABLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL FLOW AND STRONGER WIND
SHEAR TO ARIZONA RESULTING IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORM
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH 03Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL        BOHLIN
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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