Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 300245
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS IS MOVING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD GUSTY
WIND TO THE FORECAST AND EXTEND THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
FURTHER EAST. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMOKE HAS HELPED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT TODAY AS THE
WEAKER SUN HAS NOT ALLOWED MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES TO REACH
THEIR TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.

THE VORT MAX SHOULD KICK UP SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
THAT MOVE NE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. A
WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

ON MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE (IF THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH SMOKE). WEST
WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO STRONG AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE
DAY.

CONCERNING THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY...AM BANKING ON SHOWERS AND
WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE IN THE AREA.
WEST WINDS MONDAY THOUGH MAY BRING THICK SMOKE BACK INTO THE AREA.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE
COVERING THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL FLUCTUATE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS FOR NOW SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT QUITE
MAKE IT TROUGH THE CWA DURING THE WEEK. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER BOTH THE EC AND GFS CONCUR
THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE POSSIBLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE TREND IS FOR COOLING AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND. NO NEEDED GRID EDITS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE
TROUGH EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT
INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS TIME UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED.
MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 5SM AT AT THE KGGW AND KOLF
TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE
SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE RECEIVING AS DENSE
OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE
SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

GAH/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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