Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 272101
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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