Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 180547
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

We published an update around 11 pm to raise low temps for the
rest of the night. Fcst temps/dwpts were running svrl degs too
cold. Actual temps are not dropping as expected.

Am still a little concerned about some light fog with dwpt
depressions small at this hour...mainly for avn. Wind may save it
but am not expecting any worse than MVFR. We did see LNK is down
to 5SM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

What a change a day can make, our storm system has exited the
region and has been replaced with full sunshine and warmer
temperatures. The ice has quickly been melting and most if not all
of the ice will be gone by tonight. A weak cut off upper level low
will track northeast into our forecast area on Wednesday, but no
precipitation is expected with this system. We are really only
expecting an increase in mid to high level clouds as this upper
low tracks overhead. The air aloft will remain mild and thus
expect highs on Wednesday to also continue to be mild and in the
40s.

Cannot rule out the slight chance of fog tonight or early
Wednesday morning due to the moist ground from the recent
precipitation. However, am not seeing enough of a fog signal in
the HRRR, RAP, or SREF to include it in the forecast at this time.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

The big story will be the mild airmass that will likely keep
temperatures above normal through next Monday. There will be some
small precipitation chances Thursday night through Saturday
morning with the next little upper low that appears will be
tracking across Nebraska. However, there will not be much in the
way of moisture with this system and temperatures aloft at 850mb
appear to be warm. Therefore, only light precipitation is expected
and it should primarily be rain. We can not rule out a little
light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain when sfc
temperatures are at their coolest Thursday night and Friday night,
but overall it seems like light rain if anything will be the
predominate precipitation type. End of the week precipitation if
any would likely be only a few hundredths to perhaps some
localized 0.10 inch amounts.

Weekend: A more substantial storm system appears likely to head
well south of our forecast area taking rain to primarily southern
KS, OK, and perhaps as far south as TX. We do have a slight chance
of light precipitation in our far southeastern KS counties given
to us by the forecast blender, but honestly this seems unlikely
with any precipitation more likely being entirely south of our
forecast area.

Tuesday: Will focus on this day as both the GFS and ECMWF have
shown some consistency in bringing a cold wintry storm system into
portions of Nebraska and Kansas. However, being 7 days out there
is still a lot of uncertainty indicated by the ensemble forecasts
and thus have lowered precipitation chances below the forecast
blender during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Significant Wx: IFR stratus will invade Wed eve after 00Z.

Overnight: VFR SKC. We will be watching for some MVFR fog to
form. Temp/dwpt diffs are small in some locations and there is a
lot of moisture around from yesterday. SSW winds 10 kts or less.
Confidence: Medium

Wed: VFR with SCT 25K ft cirrostratus in the Srn sky. SSW-SW
winds under 10 kts. Confidence: High

Wed Eve thru 06Z: VFR to start...but rapidly decaying to IFR as
stratus invades 03Z-04Z per model consensus. S-SSW winds around
10 kts. Confidence: Medium as there is some uncertainty on timing.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Kelley


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