Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041736
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER HEAT. MID-LVL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY
DIMINISHED. SO PLENTY OF SUN WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING 23-33
MPH...ESPECIALLY E OF HWY 283. STILL EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...90S EVERYWHERE WITH A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHERE TO HIT
100-102F OVER PHILLIPS OR ROOKS COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST CUT FOR THIS AFTN`S AFD...

ALOFT: THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW DROPPING DOWN THE WA COAST WILL DRIFT
INLAND OVER THE PAC NW.

SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY WELL TO THE N-NW...
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CANADA THRU ND-WY-NV. THE LEE-SIDE TROF WILL
REMAIN OUT TO THE W OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE
LITTLE THRU TOMORROW.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN M/CLEAR AND P/CLOUDY. CAN`T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S. NEAR
RECORD WARM LOWS. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.

WHILE THE LOW-LVL JET WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT...THERE IS NOTHING
IN THE WAY OF HELP ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO TSTM ACTIVITY.
ONLY TWO SREF MEMBERS OUTPUT A FEW SPITS OF QPF. SAME STORY WITH
THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. WAS TEMPTED TO
COMPLETELY DROP THE MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

SAT: ANOTHER P/SUNNY BREEZY HOT DAY.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

IN A VERY BASIC SENSE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD CARRIES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY/LOW-CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS...BUT AT
LEAST TEMPERATURE-WISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THAT THIS
NOTABLE STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HEAT FINALLY STARTS TO EASE
UP ON LABOR DAY MONDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW DAYS OF NEAR-TO-
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY
THOUGH...THE HEAT STAYS ON...AS MOST OF THE CWA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STARTING SEPTEMBER WITH 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90+
HIGHS...SOMETHING THAT DOESN/T HAPPEN VERY OFTEN DURING SEPTEMBER
(PLEASE SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SOME MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THIS VERY WARM START TO THE MONTH).

STAYING WITH THE TEMPERATURE THEME...FORTUNATELY THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA APPEARS THAT IT WILL MISS OUT ON ADVISORY-WORTHY HEAT
INDEX VALUES (105+ DEGREES) OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SOME NEAR-100 HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN VARIOUS PLACES
ON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AND SUBJECT
TO SOME ADJUSTMENT...THIS LATEST FORECAST NOW HAS SOME HEIGHTENED
CONCERN FOR HEAT INDEX AT LEAST FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MITCHELL
COUNTY KS AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

TAKING AN OVERVIEW OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FORTUNATELY
FOR THOSE WANTING RAIN AND WHO MISSED OUT ON THE SPOTTY AREAS OF
RESPECTABLE RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MORE CHANCES TO BREAK THIS GROWING DRY-SPELL OVER THE COMING DAYS.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES IN
THINKING HAVE OCCURRED...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE "FLIP-FLOPPING" DID
OCCUR TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE 7-DAY AS SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) WERE REMOVED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY (AT LEAST FOR
NOW) AND WERE ADDED BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. OTHERWISE
THOUGH...EACH AND EVERY DAY/NIGHT PERIOD FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEATURES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT CHANCE 20
POP WITHIN SOME OR ALL OF THE CWA...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
FOCUSED DURING THE MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ASSIGN "LIKELY"
60+ POPS TO ANY LOCATIONS GIVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2/3 OUTLOOKS COVERING THIS WEEKEND THAT THERE PROBABLY
ISN/T ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO ADVERTISE A "FORMAL" MARGINAL RISK
AREA WITHIN THE CWA AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WITHIN EAST/SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND NEAR THE
FIRST MODEST COLD FRONT OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD. LOOKING OUT INTO
LABOR DAY MONDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
"SOME" DEGREE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS JUST TOO FAR OUT THERE STILL TO HANG MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-24
HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PARENT TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIP-WISE...WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW THAT ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE...BUT IT WOULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...VERY WARM/HOT AND
BREEZY DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...BEFORE BRINGING IN ONLY
SLIGHT STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH TEMPS WERE
RAISED 1-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS WITH MID-UPPER 90S MOST AREAS...BUT
DECENT COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD TRY TEMPERING THINGS A
BIT.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: THE GLANCING INFLUENCES OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
SPREADING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THIS MORNING. HAVE 20-30 POPS ALL AREAS. UNLESS RAINFALL
COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...THIS VERY WELL MIGHT BE THE LAST
TRULY BALMY NIGHT OF 2015...WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD UP IN
THE 70-74 RANGE MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...IT WILL AT LEAST FORCE A WEAK-TO-MODEST COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THIS
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER VERY TOASTY
DAY OUT AHEAD OF IT...AND HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR-90
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 100 FAR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE
MAIN RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY STRONG ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD FOCUS SLIGHTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING.
HAVE POPS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL MONTH SO FAR...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF 90
DEGREES...WITH 80S PREVAILING. DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE STALLING
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING NIGHT BUT HAVE LOW POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE
DAY AS WELL.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TRYING TO USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA...AND
HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF HAS MAINLY TRENDED DRY FOR THE
CWA...THE FORECAST CONTINUES HALFWAY DECENT POPS MAINLY PER THE
GFS SOLUTION. DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AGREE THAT
A FULL TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS REINFORCING
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER REGION. THE FORECAST LARGELY FOLLOWS THE GFS DEPICTION OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AND THEN DRYING OUT
WED NIGHT-THURSDAY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THAT
THE OPPOSITE TIMING EXPECTATION COULD OCCUR...SO AGAIN SOME
POSSIBLE FORECAST ISSUES HERE. TEMP-WISE...AM NOT YET SOLD ON
TRULY "COOL" TEMPS ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT AT
LEAST FOR WILL ADVERTISE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WX ISSUES: LLWS TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS
WILL GUST 23-28 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR. SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE. LLWS
DEVELOPS BY 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT. LLWS ENDS BY
14Z WITH S WINDS GUSTING 22-27 KTS AGAIN AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD WARMEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. KEEP
IN MIND THESE AREN`T JUST MORNING LOWS. FOR THESE RECORDS TO BE
TIED OR BROKEN THEY HAVE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY THRU TIL MIDNIGHT.

      RECORD WARM LOWS
      FRI 9/4   SAT 9/5
GRI   72-1954*  75-1945
HSI   72-1925   74-1912

* INDICATES THIS OCCURRED MULTIPLE YRS. ONLY THE LATEST IS LISTED.

THIS MORNING`S LOW AT GRI WAS 71. SO GRI WILL NOT TIE OR BREAK
TODAY`S RECORD. THE LOW AT HSI WAS 72. SO THERE`S STILL A CHANCE
FOR A TIE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB


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