Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 310534
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED SKY/TEMPS/DWPTS THRU SUNRISE. THE FCST DEWPOINTS NEEDED
THE MOST WORK VS REALITY. OVERALL ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH
VARIABLE SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT FOR THE 4 AM AFD.

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA. EMBEDDED
IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700
MB TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB ALONG WITH ITS
MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS AT DAYBREAK
TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD LOW.
THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340
J/KG. SO THE SREF FCST OF 500-1000 J/KG LOOKS OVERDONE.

MORE AROUND 4 AM...


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR WITH BKN CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. SOME PATCHES
OF 10K FT ALTOCU COULD ALSO DRIFT CLOSE BY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
S-SE AT EAR/GRI AND WILL CONT TO VEER TO SW UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED
PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. SW WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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