Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THRU THE DAY. EARLY MORNING ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS.
CHCS FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION FOR
NOW UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 12Z MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY


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