Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 071127
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.

TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND BY LATE MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BRINGS
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NRN HALF AFTER 17Z WITH NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA
AND LOCAL CIGS BKN030CB. ISOLATED +TSRA/+SHRA IS EXPECTED WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AND LOCALIZED G25-30KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 17Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



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