Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 212037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
237 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Short term forecast is on track with a benign weather pattern
dominated by high pressure ridge in place over the Southwest
CONUS. Very dry atmosphere in place with only 10 percent of upper
air soundings drier than ours this morning at 12Z. This will
change as the ridge is forced eastward by a digging trough along
the west coast. The resultant deep southwesterly flow will be
tapping into the subtropics and begin to transport moisture north
of the US border by early Saturday evening. This will mainly be
seen as high level cloudiness through the short term forecast with
temperatures remaining well above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A persistent large trough along the NOAM left coast will be the
normal through the long term forecast. The longer term models air
consistent with this feature but having some issues in the higher
latitudes which will have minimal impact on this forecast attm. A
piece of the western trough breaks free early next week as a
stronger core of subtropical jet level winds sweeps by. This jet
and trough will be interacting with the subtropical moisture and
excite shower activity over eastern Utah by Monday afternoon with
the bulk of this lift passing overhead Tuesday morning. Very snow
levels are anticipated with the passage of this system. The
pattern remains progressive and this activity will be short lived
with clearing and drying returning by mid-week as the ridge
rebuild overhead. A very similar pattern sets up to end the week
though the western trough will be breaking away form the coast and
send a more organized system into the West for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Minimal cloud cover will lead to VFR conditions anchoring the TAF
forecasts over the next 24 hours. Winds will be terrain driven
which could lead to some gusty upvalley winds at KRIL and KEGE
after 22/20Z.




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