Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 281103
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
603 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Showers have pretty much ended across central Wisconsin as a mid-
level PV anomaly exits the region early this morning. In its wake
mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures have settled in across
the region. Some morning fog has been noted across portions of
north-central Wisconsin, however webcams do not show dense fog to
be particularly widespread which is supported by METAR
observations whose visibilities bounce around quite a bit.
Therefore any lingering fog should burn off quickly this morning
once the sun rises.

High pressure will bring comfortable temperatures and low
humidities as highs are only forecast to top out in the middle to
upper 70s with dew points in the 50s. Some afternoon cumulus
clouds are possible, however skies are expected to be mostly sunny
for the balance of the day. Persistent northeasterly winds on Lake
Michigan will cause waves to pile up alone the beaches of
Manitowoc County later this morning, lasting into the evening
hours. The high waves will bring an increased risk for rip
currents, therefore will issue a Beach Hazards Statement for
Manitowoc County from late this morning through the evening hours.

The aforementioned high will bring a cool night to the region as
overnight lows sink into the lower to middle 50s, with a few
readings in the upper 40s possible across far north- central
Wisconsin. The mostly clear skies and light winds could lead to
some fog overnight, particularly over the fog prone areas of
north-central Wisconsin.

High pressure stays in control of the western Great Lakes on
Saturday with pretty much a carbon copy of today. The main
differences will be highs may be a degree or two warmer with less
clouds as afternoon cumulus are expected to be less of an issue
given a shallower mixing depth.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

500mb ridge will dominate the weather pattern through the period.
The 500mb ridge is expected to amplify while deepening downstream
trough is expected across the eastern United States by the middle
of next week. This will result in a northwest flow pattern over
the western Great Lakes with the most intense heat staying well
west of the state.

Models continue to depict weak system passing across northern
Wisconsin on Monday afternoon, thus resulting in small chances of
showers or thunderstorms in this region. The next weather maker
appears to be moving into northern Wisconsin a little quicker
compared to last night. This resulted in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the north Tuesday afternoon and across the
entire area Tuesday night. Models continue to depict a chance of
showers and storms across northeast and east-central Wisconsin on
Wednesday. Dry conditions expected on Thursday. Made minor
adjustments upward on max temperatures Sunday and Monday. Also
made adjustments to max temperatures to depict our typical warm
spots during the day and the typical cold spots at nights.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Patchy fog across north-central Wisconsin early this morning will
give way to mostly sunny skies, light winds and VFR conditions at
all of the TAF sites for the rest of the day and into the evening
hours. Some light fog is possible again late tonight, however
mainly over north-central Wisconsin and scattered in nature.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
evening for WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski


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