Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 282344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
744 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

High pressure will control our weather until Tuesday at which point
a cold front will begin to move through the state. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cooler and much
less humid air will flow into behind the cold front for the end
of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Forecast concerns deal with fog chances tonight and pcpn chances
Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Latest vis loop shows skies are mostly clear north of I-96 and
partly cloudy south of there. High pressure overhead will result in
calm winds tonight. Abundant low level moisture remains from recent
rain and dewpoints are in the 65 to 70 degree range. These
conditions are conducive for fog formation and we have fog in the
grids after midnight.

A cold front will approach the cwa Tuesday and pass through the cwa
Tuesday night. Scattered showers/storms are possible with the
passage of the front. We don`t expect severe storms with this front.
Shear values less than 20 kts expected Tuesday but li`s are near -
4c. Tuesday night, shear values are a bit stronger...25-30
knots...but instability is limited at best.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Showers and storms will linger across the southern zones Wednesday
morning before the front clears Lower Michigan. Drying and
subsidence follows for Wednesday night through Friday under sfc
ridging and rising heights.

The sfc high moves east by Saturday with some moisture return
Saturday night. Held off on bringing showers in until Sunday when
deeper moisture and warm air advection increases.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Mid and upper levels will continue to dry out overnight with
mainly clear skies expected. Winds will become light to calm,
especially near and after midnight. Some surface moisture still
lingers and is better represented at southern TAF sites, where
there is a higher probability for fog development. KAZO and KBTL
may momentarily dip in MVFR from 10Z-12Z, while KLAN and KJXN have
a better chance of IFR in the same time period.

Clear skies will allow for fog to mix out fairly quickly during
the morning. Expect a return to VFR conditions by 13-14Z with
easterly winds increasing to between 5-10 kts during the day


Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Quiet conditions are expected on the lake through Monday.


Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Will extend the Flood Warning for the Portage River based on the
half-inch of rain that fell on Saturday. The warning will be
maintained until observations can verify it has fallen and will
stay below flood stage. There is a chance of rain Tue-Wed this
week but likely not enough to cause problems. No other significant
rainfall or hydrologic concerns are expected this week.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Ostuno
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