Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 271743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A weak cold front crossing the area this evening will be followed by
warm high pressure on Friday. Another weak frontal passage occurs
late Sunday...before strong and dry high pressure returns early next


As of 140 PM...A short wave and pre-frontal trough moving into the
mountains is driving the line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
moving over that area. Guidance still shows the NC Foothills and
Piedmont seeing the best chance of any convection this afternoon.
However, even that is questionable given the trends seen on radar.
Forecast PoP trends still look good given these features with sct
convection over the Mountains and NC Foothills with isolated chances
over the rest of the area. Kept a mention over the Upstate and NE
GA, but they have the least chance of seeing any precip. Expect
skies to clear this evening and precip chances drop dramatically as
the short wave and trough move east of the area.

The actual cold front to our NW moves across the area late tonight
or early Friday. Although the gusty winds this afternoon will
diminish behind the trough, winds will remain high enough to see a
shift from SW ahead of the front to W to N behind the front. Despite
the front moving through, there is not much of an air mass change as
thicknesses remain high. Lows tonight and highs Friday will be
around 10 degrees above normal.


As of 125 pm EDT Thursday: The numerical models and ensembles
feature strong agreement through the short range period. These
solutions indicate that broad ridging will build over the southern
U.S. from Texas to the Carolinas on Saturday. The associated surface
high will set up over the coastal Carolinas with a weak lee trough
in place just east of the Blue Ridge. Plenty of lower 80s maximum
temperatures will result from this setup and excellent insolation.

A weak upper level impulse will cross the Great Lakes on Sunday and
create modest height falls along the eastern seaboard. Any shortwave
forcing is expected to pass mainly north of our forecast area. The
main impact from the passing wave will be to push a back door cold
front through the region, most likely on Sunday night. With the area
remaining in the warm sector through Sunday afternoon, maxes could
approach record high values across the region. See the climate
section of the discussion for details on the records. Unfortunately,
the boundary should move through the region dry.


As of 130 pm EDT Thursday: Model agreement remains quite good
through the medium range. A stronger southeast ridge will build over
the region Monday through Wednesday. Most operational models hint at
some very light QPF briefly developing in the easterly upslope flow
behind the departing back door front Monday night. This will likely
produce some increased cloudiness, but any appreciable precipitation
in escarpment areas seems very unlikely. Thus, dry weather should
continue, with temperatures remaining above climatology.

The ridge will get suppressed southward on Thursday as heights fall
strongly over eastern Canada. This will send yet another back door
cold front toward, or into, our area on Thursday. But, once again it
will most likely be a dry fropa - if the boundary makes it through
at all. Drought conditions are very likely to worsen considerably
over the next week with most areas receiving no rainfall during the
period and the airmass remaining relatively warm and dry.


At KCLT...despite the developing MVFR CU, expect bases to lift to
low VFR by the time any cigs form this afternoon. Convection cannot
be ruled out as a short wave and pre-frontal trof crosses the area
this afternoon. However, chance remains low enough for just a VCSH
mention for now. Expect low clouds to scatter out this evening
behind the wave and trough. Cannot rule out some MVFR fog near
daybreak, but again, chance too low to include for now. SW winds
with occasional gusts continue through the afternoon then diminish
this evening. A cold front crosses the area early Friday with light
NW winds developing near daybreak, then increasing in speed a little
and turning N before noon.

Elsewhere...Similar conditions to KCLT, but much more chances of
restrictions. The MVFR CU should lift to low VFR by mid afternoon
with isolated SHRA and possibly a TSRA before sunset. Fog should be
at least MVFR overnight with IFR most likely at KAVL and possible
elsewhere. Winds will also see similar trends, but remain more
westerly at KAND and northwesterly at KHKY Friday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will build in through the weekend. The
influence of the high will continue into early next week with VFR

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  87%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%     Med   65%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KGMU       High  94%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:



  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      79 1946     32 1910     59 1984     21 1976
   KCLT      82 1984     48 1925     67 1984     27 2001
                1927        1910                    1976
   KGSP      84 1927     47 1925     66 1984     25 1976


  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      81 1946     36 1925     58 1996     20 1910
                1922                    1896
   KCLT      84 1996     42 1925     66 1918     26 1965
                1961                    1881        1952
   KGSP      83 1950     42 1925     65 2004     25 1910




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