Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 300303
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1003 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Radar VWP shows flow above the sfc has gone mostly sw/w which
should keep things mostly dry overnight. Can`t totally rule out
an isolated cell until the front clears the coast overnight, but
think patchy fog will be more likely with winds laying down, skies
clearing and ground being wet. Overall, not many changes for the
update other than to match obs/trends.

Expect a few days of quiet wx. But things look to get more active
later this weekend as a fairly potent storm system approaches from
the w/nw. Though finer details are still rough between most of
the models, they`ve been consistently showing signals that the
potential for some significant wx might exist somewhere near the
region between the late Saturday thru the early Monday timeframe.
Will dig deeper into this in the coming days. 47

&&

.Aviation...
Much quieter forecast this go around. Skies have cleared to the east
but, there are some concerns with the possibility of some patchy fog
developing in that small time window before the arrival of the front
sometime overnight. Wet grounds/light winds/minimal dewpoint differ-
ences noted at this time. CXO already reporting some patchy fog, and
would not be too surprised to see additional reports in the next few
hours. The cold front is currently moving across Central TX and will
be arriving into SE TX overnight (CLL@05-07Z,IAH@07-09Z,GLS@10-12Z).
VFR expected thereafter. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
Strong thunderstorms continue to move east of the Houston metro
this afternoon, but have left anywhere from 1 to over 3 inches of
rain and multiple reports of damage in their wake. This storm, and
associated storms stretching from Polk County southwest to near
Freeport. These storms will continue to translate east of the
region over the next few hours, clearing the region by 7 to 9 PM
CDT.

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the compact upper level storm
system responsible for today`s severe weather churning over
Oklahoma, with another strong disturbance located farther up
stream off the Pacific Northwest coast. An upper trough axis
associated with the Southern Plains low will swing across Texas
tonight, aiding the southeastward progress of a cold front
analyzed across West Central Texas this afternoon. Drying and
stabilization in the wake of today`s storms should make the
frontal passage across the region a dry one, with Thursday morning
lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s about 10 degrees cooler than what
was observed this morning.

Westerly flow and shortwave ridging building across the region on
Thursday and Friday will allow for dry conditions to persist into
the beginning of the weekend, with temperatures dramatically
warming into the mid to possibly upper 80s by Friday and Saturday.
As the Pacific Northwest system drops across the Four Corners and
reaches the High Plains on Saturday, low rain chances will return
to the region on Saturday as moisture returns to the region
(possibly along a developing sea breeze).

Increasing lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in
periods of showers and thunderstorms spreading across the region
Sunday night, with the development of numerous showers and
thunderstorms possible Sunday and Sunday night as the main energy
from the upper low reaches the region. Given the upper pattern
across the region, both severe weather and heavy rain appear
possible per CIPS Analog Threat Guidance on Sunday. Dry and warm
conditions are expected in the wake of Sunday`s system into the
middle of next week. Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      54  78  56  87  63 /  10  10   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              59  78  57  86  65 /  10  10   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            64  75  66  79  71 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until midnight CDT tonight
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$


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