Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 291721
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF/
Surface analysis has cold front off the coast with northerly winds
behind it. Expect VFR CIGS next 24-30hrs with winds decoupling
overnight and remaining light on Friday.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM UPDATE...

Overall the forecast looks on track. Surface analysis at 15Z has
surface front across Galveston Bay to Angleton to Victoria.
Dewpoints have dropped into the low 60s/and upper 50s already and
should mix well into the 50s later this afternoon. Winds will
average about 10 knots from the north during the day with a few
gusts. High pressure will continue to build thorugh the plains
tonight and with clear skies/light winds, low temperatures should
drop into the 50s for much of the area.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Calm and mild conditions have settled in across Southeast Texas
early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. 3 AM CDT
surface analysis showed this frontal boundary stretching along a
Midland-Waco-Shreveport line, and this feature will continue to
move south across the region through the remainder of the morning
hours. Cold air advection behind this boundary will gradually
overspread the region throughout the day, resulting in high
temperatures ranging from near 80 degrees across parts of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods regions to upper 80s south of
Interstate 10. Limited available moisture will make frontal
passage today a dry one for Southeast Texas, but weak upglide
behind the front over the offshore waters may result in an
isolated shower or two. Otherwise, expect northerly winds to
increase into the 10-15 MPH range behind the front with slightly
stronger gusts possible during the afternoon and early evening.

Quiet and pleasant weather is expected to continue across the
region Friday into the weekend, as surface high pressure and drier
air move into the region behind today`s front. Clear skies and
light winds overnight will result in excellent radiational
cooling, allowing temperatures for areas north of Highway 59 to
fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday morning
still appear to be some of the coolest mornings the region has
experienced since early May. Afternoon temperatures will generally
rise into the low to mid 80s each afternoon through the weekend,
but some locations in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods regions may
not get out of the upper 70s on Friday afternoon.

By the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, shortwave
ridging builds back over Texas as a closed low now off the Pacific
Northwest swings onto the West Coast. Ridging in advance of this
system will allow for a continuation of dry weather for the region
into the beginning of next week, but result in afternoon
temperatures gradually warming back into the mid to upper 80s.
Surface winds are expected to gradually veer onshore Monday into
Tuesday and may see some Gulf moisture creep its way back into the
region by the middle of next week (which will be most noticeably
felt by warmer overnight temperatures). Upper ridging gets shunted
east of the region by mid-week as the upper level system
translates east across the Rocky Mountains, with the next cold
front looking to reach the region late in the work week. While
medium range guidance continues to offer timing and location
differences with this upper system and associated front, region-
wide rain chances are forecast to increase Wednesday/Thursday in
response.

Huffman

MARINE...
Low pressure over the Ohio valley northern plains will move east
and drag a cold front across SE TX this morning. The front will
cross the coastal waters early this morning and winds will become
north and gradually increase in speed. The pressure gradient will
tighten significantly tonight as cooler air (relative to the the
water temp) and speeds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots
with higher gusts. Mariners in small craft should exercise caution
tonight. High pressure will build into Texas on Friday behind the
front and winds will begin to relax as the gradient weakens. The
high will move east on Sunday night and onshore winds will return
to the coastal waters on Monday. Onshore winds will strengthen and
likely persist for the first half of next week. Another cold front
will cross the coastal waters next Thursday. 43

TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to drift west into the eastern
Caribbean early this morning and is forecast to reach the central
Caribbean by Friday. Track guidance remains in good agreement
that Matthew will turn to the north late this weekend as an upper
trough reamplifies over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving
towards Cuba/Hispaniola and continuing north into the middle of
next week. Matthew is not currently forecast to enter the Gulf of
Mexico and no impacts are anticipated for Southeast Texas.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      81  56  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              85  60  82  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            86  71  80  72  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 8 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...11



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