Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
FXUS66 KHNX 211148
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
...ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
!!!! BULLETIN ERROR !!!!
PLEASE MAKE A NOTE IN THE STATION LOG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.