Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 261947
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
1247 PM PDT Sun Mar 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A fast moving weather system will move across the
region tonight and Monday bringing some light precipitation and
the threat of strong winds to the Kern County Mountains and desert
areas. High pressure will then build over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday before another fast moving system brushes northern parts
of the district on Thursday.
.DISCUSSION...Radar shows a fast moving band of showers associates
with an upper level trough heading towards Yosemite at mid day
but that is about all. Lots of mid and high clouds area spreading
across the forecast area but for the most part the area will stay
dry through the early evening. Upstream, a secondary, lower level
disturbance is noted on water vapor imagery taking aim on
Northwest California and this feature is progged to move southeast
into and across the Central Interior later tonight and Monday. Due
to its quick speed of movement, not a lot of precipitation is
expected with the main area limited to the Sierra north of Kings
Canyon Park. Wind will however be a big concern on Monday over
the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and especially over the
Kern County Mountains and desert areas where guidance suggests
high wind (58+ mph) gusts are likely. A wind advisory has been
posted for the west SJV and a high wind warning for the Kern
County Mtns and desert from Monday morning through early evening.
Forecast models then eject the trough quickly east into Arizona
Monday night and then build a ridge in Tuesday and Wednesday. Area
will be much less windy with a warming trend. Later in the week,
models continue to struggle with the path and strength of the next
system. The GFS keeps the system weaker and much farther inland
while the ECMWF moves a stronger and closed low southeast across
the Great Basin. In either case precipitation will be limited
however another big wind event looks possible.
Ridging is progged for next weekend.
VFR conditions and are expected across all terminals through the
forecast. Winds will increase later tonight and early Monday over
the Kern County Mountains and desert areas however.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ095-098-099.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday CAZ089-091.