Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 311954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
1254 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016
A significant warming trend will take place over the region through
the end of the work week as high pressure builds over Central
California. Triple digit temperatures can be expected through much
of the San Joaquin Valley, surrounding foothills, and the desert.
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows the center of the strong
anticyclone (high pressure system) now over the North State with
the area of dry and subsiding air spreading over a wide swath of
the Great Basin and California. Forecast models move the center of
the high over Central California Wednesday and then just slightly
east on Thursday. With projected heights at 500 millibars
approaching 5900 meters, this tall column of atmosphere will
allow for temperatures to reach well into the 100s over all lower
elevations. With all the heat and strong surface heating over the
mountain slopes a small threat of daily thunderstorms will remain
limited the the Sierra.
By Friday, the high intensifies to 5930 meters as the center
shifts into Arizona. This will allow the clockwise southerly flow
to move across Central California and this will allow for the
hottest temperatures to occur on Friday. This weekend, models
bring a weak area of low pressure towards the Central California
coast Saturday and into the interior on Sunday. Heights fall to
around 5820 meters and cooling will occur in this scenario
however the slightly cooler air aloft will increase the threat of
thunderstorms over the mountains. The low is progged to slowly
lift northeast early next week with a ridge of high pressure
building towards the forecast area from the south.
Local MVFR ceilings are possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the higher elevations of the Sierra between 22z today and
04z Wednesday. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday, May 31 2016... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern... Kings and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.