Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 200019
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
419 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving through the region will produce some showers
for mainly the mountains through early Saturday. Low snow levels
will likely result in snowfall on the major passes in Kern County.
A weak system will bring another chance of light precipitation to
areas from Fresno County north on Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough extending from northern California to off the central
CA coast. Just a few light showers observed on radar at this time.
Precipitation amounts generally ranged from one-quarter to one-half
an inch over the southern Sierra, but Crane Flat up in Yosemite NP
measured 0.85". Tuolumne Meadows measured 5 inches of new snowfall.
Rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley was generally one to two-tenths
of an inch.

Hi-resolution modeling shows some upslope showers developing tonight
as the trough axis swings inland. Snow levels currently around 5500
feet will fall all the way down to near 3000 feet overnight. This
will bring the potential for accumulating snowfall along the major
mountain passes in Kern County. A Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for this threat. Latest QPF gives around 2-4 inches for
the Frazier Park/Pine Mountain Club area, and possibly affecting
the Grapevine Pass along Interstate 5. Around 1 inch is forecast
along the Tehachapi Pass. Most of the precipitation will be over
by Saturday morning. But given the low snow levels, the Advisory
will remain in effect through Saturday afternoon as any additional
snowfall could be a problem.

The trough shifts eastward and short wave ridging briefly moves in
Saturday night and Sunday. The next trough moves over the Pacific
Northwest with just some light precip brushing areas from Fresno
County northward Sunday night and Monday. QPF is only one-quarter
of an inch around Yosemite NP with just a few hundredths for the
central SJ Valley. Snow levels are expected to be around 4500 feet.
Models are suggesting a wetter system moving in around the middle
of next week. This system looks to dig farther south with the focus
on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions over the southern Sierra
Nevada, adjacent foothills, and the Tehachapi Mountains thru 21Z
Saturday. MVFR and areas of IFR conditions in rain and mist in the
southern San Joaquin Valley thru 12Z Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE CAZ096.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday ABOVE 3000 FEET
FOR THE CAZ095.

&&

$$

public...DCH
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...DCH

weather.gov/hanford


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