Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 262350 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
350 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE
CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL
CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL WOE DURING THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE.
AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN
09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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