Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 182239
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOLER ACROSS THE DISTRICT. 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURES TRENDS RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH 24 HOUR
TRENDS 8-10 DEGREES LOWER IN THE SJV AND COOLER IN SOME FOOTHILLS
LOCALES. THE FEATURE FOR THE COOLING IS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS IN GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST LATE FRIDAY. THEN PUSHING NORTHEAST OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SATELLITE DERIVED
PW ALSO SHOW MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE LOW AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AREA. MODELS DEVELOP INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN SPREADING OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS SOME VALLEY LIGHTING AND
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST
HAS INCREASED OVER 5KFT. THUS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BELOW THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES ON WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND THE DESERT PASSES INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN. THE SIERRA WILL BE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO NV SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN RISING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS
MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING
TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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