Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 101829
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
129 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
High pressure will build east across the region today offering
continued cold temperatures. A low pressure system will eject
northeast from the plains into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday
night. Snow will develop ahead of this system across the Great
Lakes tonight and then a mix of rain and snow, before ending on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We are still seeing a few lingering flurries across parts of our
north so will linger a mention there through the remainder of the
morning. Otherwise as low level flow backs, the lower clouds and
any flurry activity will continue to erode away from the south,
leaving mainly just some mid and high level cloudiness through
the rest of the day. Highs today will range from the upper 20s to
lower 30s in the far south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level flow backs with s/w and associated surface wave
ejecting from the central plains to the Great Lakes on
Sunday/sunday night. Waa/isentropic lift pcpn develops in the form
of snow across ILN/s far northern counties tonight. Numerical
model trends continue to look a little further north. Have a
chance of snow from about I-70 north with likely pops across the
far north by morning. Perhaps an inch or two of snow across the
far north overnight. Lows tonight to range from the lower 20s far
north to the mid 20s far south.
WAA pcpn continues to slide east across ILN/s nrn counties Sunday
morning with pcpn filling in from the west durg the late afternoon
as favorable lift develops associated with 8H 60 kt low level
jet. Expect pcpn to remain snow across the far north through most
of the day with a snow to rain/snow mix acrs the central and
south. Eventually under the influence of waa, the entire cwa turns
over to rain Sunday night. An additional additional inch or so of
snow accumulation is possible prior to the change to rain across
the far north. Temperatures on Sunday will warm to the mid 30s far
north to the lower 40s far south.
Under the the influence of good WAA with 60 kt southerly low level
jet pivoting across the area, expect non-diurnal temperatures
Sunday night with early lows from near 30 far north to 40 far
south. Have categorical pops with rain across the entire FA.
Surface cold front to pivot east thru ILN/s fa Monday with all
pcpn coming to an end. Expect early highs from the mid 30s far nw
to the upper 40s se with temperatures dropping off in the
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will be ushered in behind a surface
cold front and it and last until about Wednesday. On Wednesday,
the zonal H5 flow will contain a broad trough pushing in from the
west and a broad area of frontogenetic forcing will occur in the
mid levels over the eastern U.S. European model is quicker to push
the deeper moisture east on Wednesday and subsequently much
lighter in any potential for snow.
Temperatures should remain cool and thicknesses support snow for the
remainder of the forecast.
High pressure builds at the surface Wednesday night and dries out
the region through Friday.
Models continue to advertise a cool extended period with below
normal readings regardless of the timing or placement differences of
the Wednesday system.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some MVFR stratocu has redeveloped this afternoon across much of
the area with still a few flurries at times. It does look like the
southwest edge of these lower clouds is beginning to erode and as
the low level flow continues to back, expect this trend to
continue through the rest of the afternoon. As the low clouds
erode, mid level clouds will stream in from the west through the
evening hours in a developing WAA pattern. As some better
isentropic lift develops and we start to moisten up, snow will
develop/spread into northern portions of our fa later tonight. It
looks like there could be a fairly sharp cutoff to the southern
edge of this, with the models in a bit of disagreement as to how
far south this will be. Overall, it looks like the most likely
scenario is with the cutoff somewhere along or possibly just
south of the I-70 corridor. This will put our northern TAF sites
on the edge of the lower cigs and vsbys associated with the snow
so for now will generally allow for MVFR conditions at
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK to account for the uncertainty. The better forcing
will shift off to our north through the morning hours on Sunday,
allowing for any pcpn to taper off at the TAF sites.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday
night into Monday morning.