Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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670
FXUS61 KILN 301321
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
weekend as a frontal boundary will remain stalled across the
region. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the first of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated the forecast to expire the dense fog advisory. Kept
special weather statement going across northwest portions of the
forecast area for the next hour or so.

We are still seeing some lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity, primarily across our far southwest and northeast
forecast area. Overall these storms have shown a gradual weakening
trend through the early morning hours and this is likely to
continue through daybreak. Meanwhile, the clouds have hung around
enough so far early this morning to help limit br development.
Will continue to keep an eye on it but for now just plan on
including some patchy fog wording in the forecast through daybreak
or so.

The mid level trough axis will pivot slowly east into the southern
Great Lakes Region through this afternoon. As it does, a weak
surface wave will ride slowly east along a stalled out boundary
currently in place across our area. As we destabilize through the
day, this should lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
once again from late morning into this afternoon. Hi res models
are hinting at the highest pops being across eastern portions of
our fa out ahead of the surface wave so will trend forecast
accordingly. PWs will be a tad lower than Friday, more in the 1.5
to possibly 1.75 inch range, but with slow moving storms, locally
heavy rainfall will once again be possible.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
There should be a downward trend in thunderstorm coverage heading
into this evening as they will be diurnally enhanced. However,
with the mid level trough axis still moving through, will just
taper back to a 20 pop through the overnight hours. The better
energy will then continue to shift east through the day on Sunday.
Will continue with lower end pops, with the best chance across
eastern portions of our forecast area during the afternoon hours.

We will remain in northwest flow aloft Sunday night into Monday
with some models suggesting some possible short wave energy
dropping down toward our area. There is some uncertainty with the
timing and placement for this though. Would think the best chance
for anything would be across southern portions of our area but
given the uncertainty, will maintain a dry forecast for the time
being.

Highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the
localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region.
The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and
therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is
the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the
Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z
ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry.
Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the
situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less
to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs
will be in the lower and mid 80s.

H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the
fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with
highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s.

ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and
down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa
Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will
go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will
bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in
the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop
towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere
with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of
thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Locations west of the terminals are showing LIFR/ VLIFR
visibilities/cigs this morning as skies are clearing from west to
east. A low stratus deck has also formed mainly along and north of
a stationary boundary that is currently hanging around near KDAY
and KCMH. As the sun rises am again expecting cigs and
visibilities to rise and become VFR by mid morning. This afternoon
NAM and GFS forecast soundings are again destabilizing as daytime
heating and plenty of moisture will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Upper level lift from an upper level low
will also help to further promote development this afternoon with
slightly better lift across the east. Still though, high res
models are again showing pretty good coverage. Given the moist
atmosphere, upper level lift, and instability this makes sense.
Have gone ahead and added tempo groups into the TAFs to account
for this.

Coverage will then again slowly decrease into the evening as
daytime heating is lost. Tonight into Sunday morning light
westerly winds will diminish bringing another chance of reduced
visibilities. Drier mid to low level air will start to work into
the region Sunday morning though which could help to limit fog
potential a bit. For now have left the mention of fog out for
Sunday morning given the uncertainty.

OUTLOOK...Chance of thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Haines



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