Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight
through Tuesday night. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio
will bring the likelihood for showers late Wednesday into
Thursday. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Friday.


An extensive area of surface high pressure will be pushed across
the Ohio Valley by a northwest flow aloft. In the dry airmass and
subsidence associated with the high, skies will become clear and
winds light. Under these conditions that are favorable for
radiational cooling, temperatures will drop below 40 in most
locations, with mid 30s expected in central Ohio closer to the
coldest air located toward the northeast. Areas of frost may form
over central Ohio, where a frost advisory is in effect starting at
3 am. Locations outside the advisory and north of the Ohio River
may see patchy frost formation late tonight when temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 30s.


As frost melts by around 9 am, dry weather is expected to
continue Tuesday as surface high pressure moves gradually east.
Increasing moisture and lift in the mid levels will allow cloud
cover to develop, especially over northern locations.

For Wednesday, low pressure will be strengthening to the west
before moving through northwest Ohio Wednesday night. Moisture
advecting into an area of enhanced convergence and lift ahead of
the low will produce showers, some of which may begin to affect
northwest counties Wednesday afternoon. Showers will become likely
Wednesday night, especially in northern locations near the
strongest lift and moisture convergence. A few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out near the onset of the showers, but weak
instability will limit strength and duration of any stronger cells
that develop. Perhaps a quarter inch of rainfall can be expected
with this rather modest event.

Temperatures will recover to the mid 50s north to low 60s south after
the chilly start on Tuesday. Readings on Wednesday will be
boosted a few degrees by warm advection, reaching the upper 50s to
upper 60s.


Numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level
shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
at mid week. This shortwave will track off to the east Thursday, and
precipitation will end from west to east. Highs will be close to
normal, ranging from the mid 50s north to the middle 60s south.

Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions.  Highs On Friday to range from the
upper 50s north to the mid 60s south.

Model solns showing differences in strength and timing with the next
system moving through the Great Lakes next weekend. Warm air
advection pattern develops with best moisture and lift north of
ILN/s FA. Have limited pop to slight chance north and east with low
chance far northeast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures to warm some
with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 south.

Next quick moving wave to track through the Great Lakes Sunday. Have
limited any mention of precipitation to a slight chance of a shower
north Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday from the upper 50s north to the
middle 60s south. Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures for
next Monday. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s northeast
to the lower 60s southwest.


Light-moderate nwly breezes in the wake of the cold front will
continue across the TAF sites through about 22Z before the
boundary layer begins to stabilize with the onset of nocturnal
cooling. Diurnally enhanced cumulus field /most prevalent in
central Ohio near CMH/LCK/ is VFR in nature with cigs generally
lifting to about 4500 ft by the end of the afternoon. Should see
rapid clearing for most sites by sunset as high pressure builds
in. Backing flow already in the mid-levels later tonight will
spill some sct/bkn 120-150kft clouds across the sites around
sunrise and through the day on Tuesday. Winds to decrease quickly
tonight and could go calm many locations later tonight before
picking back up out of the east or northeast Tuesday morning.

Did include a few hours of IFR fog at LUK later tonight...focused
mainly on the sunrise hours. Given the antecedent dry boundary
layer...expect this to be a purely advective event off the Little
Miami River on NE flow and late in the night...and should be
shallow/brief in nature. Considered not including it at all - but
signal in fcst soundings and pattern climo for LUK is rather good.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.


OH...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ046-055-


NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
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