Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 021443
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1043 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
H5 PVA RACING NE ACROSS INDIANA IN THE UPPER FLOW IS CAUSING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRIER
ATMOSPHERE AS THEY HEAD INTO THE REGION...ADDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY TODAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL REACH INDIANA
TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING OHIO ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. VIGOROUS WIND
FIELDS WILL HELP CONVECTIVE LINES AND CELLS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
AND LONGER-LIVED...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR.

A MOIST FLOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING PWAT VALUES 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. THE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD MITIGATE THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA...AN UPPER LOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
RETREATING TO THE LOW 70S FRIDAY IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. READINGS
WILL THEN PLUMMET SATURDAY IN THE BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
REGION WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS AFTER SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DRY...CONFIDENCE
DECREASES IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. GFSE PLOTS SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF SPREAD IN TROUGH
PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE...AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IS
ONLY DECENT AT BEST. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE THAN OTHER TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND THIS
HAS BEEN REFINED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LAST EVENING LED TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN
IMPROVEMENT TO THE FOG.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 18 KTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS DURG THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED INSTBY INDICATED AFTER 07Z ACRS THE
WEST. EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL WILL BECOME SATURATED WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE THESE MVFR CIGS AT KCVG 30
HOUR TAF SITE.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR





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