Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251733
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DIGGING UPR LVL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE 3K-5K RANGE WILL GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN PARTS THIS MORNING DUE TO WEAK WAA IN THIS LAYER. THIS HAS
BEEN VERIFIED BY A FEW DROPS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE. BY AFTERNOON...
WITH DIURNAL MIXING...THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST TO NEAR 70 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
CONTINUING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACRS NRN LOCATIONS COMPARE TO YESTERDAYS DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PEAKING NEAR YESTERDAYS HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT TO OUR WEST. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY
OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY...SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NON DIURNAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES WILL BE SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...RECORDS
LOOK SAFE AS THEY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MONDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
OUR REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY ERRATIC CONTINUITY WITH
ITS PAST RUNS WHILE THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT. ALL IN ALL...THE
ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE. IN EITHER CASE...PCPN SHOULD
INCREASE FASTER INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS SUCH. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHIFTING TIMING...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
NOW. IT WILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN
INCREASING...NOT AS MUCH AS MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE EXITING TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES AS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WITH HIGHER MID 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A CLEAR AND CALM REGIME...FG
AND BR MAY FORM AT LUK AND ILN RESPECTIVELY. OTHER SITES MAY NOT
SEE SURFACE OBSCURATION DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE IN STORE AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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