Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 231756
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm
weather conditions to the region. A slight cooling trend will
occur by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes to the forecast this morning. Upper ridge will
keep the region dry with sunny skies. Latest ILN sounding looks
like it will support the current forecast highs, so no changes
there either.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight into Sunday the mid-level ridge will slowly nudge east
as the upper level low that was over the Mountain West ejects.
1000/ 850 mb thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures nudge downwards
a bit so think Sunday highs will be slightly cooler than
Saturdays.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An elongated upper level ridge axis in place across the northeast
United States on Monday will slowly break down through Wednesday as
a trough axis approaches from the west. With a dry airmass in place,
will maintain a dry forecast for Monday into Tuesday along with a
continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs both days will
be into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

The approach of the trough axis for Wednesday into Thursday may be
affected with how close Hurricane Maria gets to the east coast so
there is some uncertainty as to just how fast the ridge will
completely break down. This may also limit how much pcpn is able to
make it into our area through the day on Wednesday so will limit
pops to just a slight chance and primarily across our northwest for
Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will also be a little tricky
depending on this timing so will lean toward a model blend with
highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

The upper level trough will then settle into the region for Thursday
into Friday. This will be accompanied by a much cooler airmass with
highs on Thursday only in the lower 70s, cooling into the mid to
upper 60s by Friday. There will also be some lower end chances for
showers, especially across northern portions of our area on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With high pressure at the surface and aloft the weather across
the region will be relatively benign. A few patches of cirrus
will work west across the tafs today. Then tonight, with the
weak easterly flow across the tafs, river valley fog should
form again. This is despite some increase H3 moisture from the
se, which might bring more patchy cirrus. Went with IFR fog at
KLUK from 07-12Z. The other tafs were left as VFR.

The fog should burn off by 13Z, leaving VFR conditions and a
just a few cirrus.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Sites


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