Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 230924
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
424 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Periods of rain can be expected today as an upper level low
pressure system moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic States.
Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area
for Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return for the second
half of the week as a colder airmass settles into the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain has been slowly filling in as it rotates westward across our
area this morning. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning hours as the upper level low currently over the
southeastern United States begins to lift northeast into the Mid
Atlantic States. As the low starts to pull off to the east, expect
to see a decreasing chance of precipitation from the west through
this afternoon. Between the clouds, precipitation and
northeasterly low level flow, do not expect much in the way of
temperature recovery today with highs ranging from the mid 40s
northwest to the lower 50s across the southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering precipitation this evening should taper off from
west to east as the upper level low moves off the East Coast. Mid
level ridging will then shift quickly east across the Upper Ohio
Valley through the day on Tuesday. This will lead to dry
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 40s. An upper level low
will lift northeast into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ahead of this, a strengthening low level jet will
rotate up across our region later Tuesday night and into the day
on Wednesday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but this may be enough
to produce a few light rain showers through the day on Wednesday.
It looks like we could have enough mixing through the day on
Wednesday to allow for some breezy winds with some gusts in the
30-35 mph range possible. Good WAA will also help temperatures
push up into the 50s for highs on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will open up with a longwave trough axis across the
United States bringing a return to more seasonal weather for the
area. Thursday morning a cold front will be pushing east of the
region with temperatures falling into the mid 30s. 850 mb
temperatures will also take a tumble as strong cold air advection
pushes 850 temperatures down from 8 degrees C to 6 degrees C below
zero. During the day Thursday as the low levels begin to cool lapse
rates will steepen. As a result snow showers will develop. The main
question for Thursday is will it be cool enough for all snow.
Looking at the latest forecast soundings on the GFS the answer
appears to be yes. Any precip Thursday morning will likely start off
as rain and then transition over to all snow Thursday morning around
day break as colder air rushes in.
On Friday ridging will continue to build across the western United
states allowing the longwave trough over the eastern Untied States
to amplify. Another piece of energy will then dive south Friday
helping to keep a low end chance of snow in the forecast. On
Saturday another reinforcing piece of energy will dive south helping
to push even slightly colder 850 mb temperatures across the area.
This trend will continue into Sunday as 850 mb temperatures lower to
around 14 degrees C below zero. This means that high and low
temperatures will slowly fall everyday in the extended period. Highs
in the upper 30s Thursday will be replaced with highs in the lower
30s by Sunday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid 30s Thursday
morning will fall to around 20 degrees by Sunday morning.
On Monday another upper level low will dive south across south
western Canada with the upper level low that was over the forecast
area exiting to the east. This will lead to a brief break in
precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday.
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over
northern Georgia will lift northeast to off the Mid Atlantic Coast
today through tonight. Moisture rotating around the low will
continue to spill north and westward across our area through today
before beginning to shift off to the east with the low tonight.
Cigs are quite variable across the region early this morning
ranging from low IFR across our far northwest to mid and high
level cloudiness across central portions of our area and then a
lower VFR stratocumulus deck across our southeast. Will therefore
start out all of the TAF sites as VFR for the first several hours
of the period, and then slowly lower cigs into MVFR and then IFR
as the low levels moisten up later this morning. Pcpn is also
somewhat spotty across the area with the best coverage southeast
of the TAF sites across far southeast Ohio and Eastern Kentucky.
Will therefore start off with primarily VCSH type coverage and
then allow for some prevailing MVFR showers to fill in as we head
toward daybreak. Periods of showers will then persist through much
of the morning before the better chance starts to shift back off
to the east through this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.