Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300526
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. AT THIS SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY
SKIMMING THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND DRAPING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FORECAST AREA AFTER 05Z AND
SWEEP THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST SOME CLEARING AND ALLOW FOR INSOLATION TO WARM THINGS UP
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SKIM
NORTHEAST OHIO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER ON
TUESDAY NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS NOTED ON
THE MODELS AND A FEW ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THAT PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS THAT MAY
FIRE ALONG THIS LINE WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

LOOKING FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO
THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S IN THE TRI-STATE.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD
FRONT SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE PACK OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS LEAD BY THE
GFS/CMC. THE GFS/CMC ARE SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
THINKING SO WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE FA THURSDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GFS/CMC PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STALLING IT IN
KENTUCKY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES A
RIPPLE ON THE FRONT AND PULLS PCPN BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...SO ONLY WENT
WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY WILL RECOVER INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH THE HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
BE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A TROF AXIS WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS LIMITING TEMPERATURES IN THE NE TO MID 40S WHILE
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES YESTERDAY
EVENING HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH A THIN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT RIGHT AROUND KDAY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE FRONT PASSES AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE LEFT TAFS AT VFR. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES






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