Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 201742
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1242 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift slowly east across the region today.
Morning fog will give way to afternoon sunshine and warmer
temperatures. A very weak cold front will move through on
Tuesday, allowing for scattered rain showers. The weak front will
wash out in the area as much above normal temperatures continue
through the workweek. Another storm system will bring additional
rain chances toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Although a few isolated locations still are experiencing fog,
the fog has dissipated in most locations. Where fog has
dissipated there has been a quick jump in temperatures. With
decent amounts of sunshine today, still expect temperatures to
rise into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Northern stream upper trough to track through the northern
plains today and though the Great Lakes Tuesday. NAM soln
phases this northern system with a southern upper low and
therefore is a little slower and much more robust with pcpn
event. GFS/ECMWF consensus solns do not phase these systems,
are more progressive and therefore less aggressive with pcpn
event from a weakening frontal system. NAM soln is an outlier
and therefore have followed this blended GFS/ECMWF soln with
clouds increasing tonight but precipitation holding off until
early Tuesday. In waa pattern mild temperatures to continue
tonight with lows from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s
southwest.

With low level jet and associated forcing lifting northeast
through the Great LAkes have gone with likely pops across the
north Tuesday and chance elsewhere. The front pushes into Ohio
and washes out. Expect continued warm readings with highs from
the mid 60s northwest to near 70 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weakening boundary will be moving east Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with shower chances diminishing. A warm front developing ahead of
low pressure will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm formation
on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely on Friday
when a trailing cold front is forecast to cross the area. There may
be a few strong thunderstorms organized by strong wind fields
associated with the cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected
Saturday and Sunday as a large area of high pressure builds in on a
broad westerly flow aloft.

Temperatures will be well above normal Wednesday through Friday due
to warm advection in the low levels coupled with a ridge aloft.
Highs are forecast to be mainly in the 60s, with lower 70s possible
Friday. Look for readings to retreat closer to normal for Saturday
and Sunday, when cold advection will drop highs back into the 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visibilities continue to improve across the TAF sites and will
become VFR this afternoon. An increase in mid and high clouds
overnight should limit fog development tonight. Cannot rule out
some fog at the more favorable fog location KLUK earlier in the
night before more clouds move in. Rain showers are expected to
hold off until after the end of the TAF period, except for the
longer KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016)      69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930)      71(1997)           68(1930)
Wed 2/22 71(1922)      70(1930)           69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985)      68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930)      72(1961)           67(1930/1961)

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR
NEAR TERM...Haines/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Novak
CLIMATE...



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