Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 020142
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

WITH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A DECREASE IN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPINGING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...DRIFTING IT
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NWRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ON WHAT COVERAGE THE CONVECTION MAY MANIFEST ITSELF SO
HAVE MAINTAINED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
CLOUD COVER WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP INTO A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING ABSORBED
INTO MID LEVEL FLOW AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
HAVE DISCOUNTED THE THE GFS WHICH WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN CLEARING THE LOW OUT OF OUR AREA. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE
DAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME NORTHERLY. DESPITE THIS CHANGE IN SURFACE FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN UP THERE WITH HIGHS FLIRTING WITH 90 IN MANY
SPOTS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN GOING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE TEXAS COAST NNE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE..THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY NEBULOUS...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE OHIO
VALLEY IN A REGIME OF WEAK AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS WARM
CONDITIONS...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ARE
EXPECTED. GEFS 850MB/700MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE NOT EXTREME...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LENDS SUPPORT TO A
FORECAST FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AT THE HIGH END OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD.

WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE GFS HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MORE WILLING TO CONVECT...BUT QPF OUTPUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
IN EITHER CASE. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
FLATTEN...THOUGH THE EXTENT AND QUICKNESS THAT THIS OCCURS IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
GOING INTO TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOW FAR THIS PROCESS GETS IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO FORECAST...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND AS LIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OHIO WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE HAD
RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A DECREASE IN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROF AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPINGING WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...DRIFTING
IT EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHAT COVERAGE THE
CONVECTION MAY MANIFEST ITSELF SO HAVE ONLY PLACED A VCSH AT THE
KDAY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG WILL
DEVELOP. BUT GIVEN THE IN AND OUT CLOUD COVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING ON HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE FOG AT THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN...AND KLCK...SO HAVE ONLY LOWERED
VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT KLCK AND KLUK. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z.
LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NORTH (20 TO 30 PERCENT) WITH A DIURNAL DROP OFF
AFTER 00Z AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN



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