Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

A large and deep area of low pressure over the region will move
east and away this afternoon. A ridge will set up in its wake
for tonight. Multiple systems will then work across the area
from Friday through Tuesday.


Strong and deep stacked low pressure system will move east this
morning and early afternoon. In the cyclonic flow an area of
moderate rain is moving into the flash flood watch that remains
in effect through noon today. Was able to discern that the far
northern counties could be peeled from the watch given all model
guidance put rainfall at and southwest of metro Cincy this
morning. Expect rapid improvement as the upper forcing exits
later this morning, but some thunderstorms remain possible,
along with their very high rainfall rates.

Do not see the threat for supercell storms and tornadic
circulations today given the progressive nature that is expected
from the large scale circulations. If a discrete cell were to
pop this morning however, it would bear watching and the threat
of a tornado is very slim but not zero.

For the rest of the CWA - showers and possibly some
thunderstorms will be present and move east. Heavy rainfall is
possible but will be brief as it would likely occur in
individual cells that will have much more movement to them than
yesterday`s storms.

Highs will be muted for another day - generally looking at mid
60s across the board.


Rain will end early this evening in the Scioto Valley and areas
north of Dayton and east of I-75. After about midnight, little
if any rain will be found in the CWA and partial clearing will
occur, especially south of the I-70 corridor and in Kentucky.
Overnight lows will drop to the low and mid 50s, and the
clearing to the south should not factor into the min temps
dropping off any more in this location.

Later on Friday, the ridging that was in place overnight
tonight will see a shortwave and associated vort maxima undercut
it, sparking some showers - potentially thunderstorms. Models
diverge significantly with this feature and subsequent chances
of rain in the region through the holiday weekend. Timing these
storms late Friday is not possible given the fluid nature of the
upper level pattern. Large model spreads in the evolution of the
sensible weather patterns for the weekend equate to a low
confidence forecast, with higher probability of rain occurring.


An upper level low will slowly drop down across the northern
Great Lakes through early next week. As it does, some weak
energy will rotate around it, bringing some lower chances of
precipitation through the rest of the long term period.
Temperatures will also cool off a bit with highs mainly in the
low to mid 70s through Wednesday.


An area of steady showers is affecting CVG/LUK at the beginning
of the taf period as they pivot around a H5 low centered near
the OH/IN line. The low will slowly work ewd today, gradually
taking the showers with it. As for the other taf locations, the
showers will be more on any off in nature. Visibilities will
could drop down into MVFR with the showers.

Ceilings are all over the place with the low centered right
over the area. Conditions are ranging from a few hundred feet to
6-7kft. Expect the VFR ceilings to lower to IFR/MVFR as the
morning progresses. They then should settle into MVFR with the
heating of the day.

The upper low will pull into the Appalachians tonight. Held onto
the mvfr cigs for a good part of the night before clouds
scatter out across the srn tafs.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of
thunderstorms possible Friday night into Monday.


OH...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ070-077.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ089>096.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ058-066-073>075-


NEAR TERM...Franks
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