Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 192303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...AND
THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP
ANY TIME SOON. THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS...GENERALLY IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 1200-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR VISIBILITY AT DAYTON APPEARS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HATZOS





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