Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 252329
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
729 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday and move
through the region Thursday night. High pressure returns by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1024mb high pressure was centered over Michigan this afternoon,
and was building south into the Ohio Valley. Despite this,
moisture wrapping around low pressure over New York state has
led to a fairly extensive area of cu/stratocu across central
Ohio before transitioning to mostly sunny skies across the Tri-
State area.

Central Ohio cu should begin to scatter later this afternoon,
and then dissipate early this evening as daytime heating effects
lessen. This will leave a mostly clear sky overnight. Most
guidance suggests that patchy fog will form late at night, and
is reflected in the gridded database. Lows will range from the
upper 50s/near 60 north of Interstate 70 to the lower 60s
further south toward the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Center of high pressure shifts east into New England on
Wednesday. Return flow begins to promote dewpoint (moisture)
increase Wednesday night.

Wednesday should be another decent day, with plenty of sunshine
after any morning fog. Temperatures will be a little warmer than
today, with a return to mid 80s.

On Wednesday night, clouds increase ahead of a shortwave/cold
front over the Midwest. Can`t rule out a shower or thunderstorm
sneaking into the east-central Indiana counties late at night,
but for the most part Wednesday night will be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front with upper level support will cross southeast through
the region on Thursday. Storms will be fairly progressive and the
highest potential for severity would be for winds and heavy
rainfall. Future forecasts will narrow the specifics down but the
front and upper level support appear to be progressive which would
limit any storms from training substantially.

Temperatures in the extended forecast appear to be capped towards
seasonal normals on highs. Friday and Saturday will be the coolest
days in the drier and post-frontal atmosphere, with readings topping
out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows Thursday will be the mildest
and in the mid to upper 60s, then drop nicely into the upper 50s to
low 60s for the remainder of the forecast, gradually bumping into
the mid 60s on days 7-8.

While some rain and showers may make an appearance early next week,
the pattern would suggest a lower chance of thunder and instability
showers due to the mean trough over the eastern U.S. and cold air
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Diurnal cumulus which has largely become cellular means a quick
dissipation overnight as high pressure remains in control. Light
easterly winds will become light/variable overnight. VFR
conditions expected through about 07Z, after which some light
fog is possible /MVFR/. KLUK could get into some IFR
restrictions toward sunrise given the rather favorable wind
trajectories off the Little Miami River and strong signal that
fog will form in that valley overnight. Any fog rapidly
dissipates on Wednesday morning under sunny skies. Light winds
thru the day, with perhaps some increase in mid and high clouds
toward the end of the 06Z /KCVG/ Cincinnati TAF.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Binau


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