Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300539
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHILE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDE NORTH.

EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY 6 AM...WITH PRECIP HOLDING
OFF. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH UP
THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING
TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING OUT VFR WITH SOME MID CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
CVG/LUK AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO MVFR
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF IFR BY EVENING. EAST WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT


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