Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PRIMARILY
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH
THAT AREA. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA HEADING
INTO THIS EVENING. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR
WEST AND THEN WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM-WRF AND NMM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS...PUSHING AN MCS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA...BUT DO DIFFER BY SEVERAL HOURS IN THEIR TIMING WITH THE
NAM-WRF BEING FASTER. EITHER WAY...IT DOES APPEAR LIKE FAIRLY HIGH
POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR
VECTORS AND GOOD INSTABILITY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
ARE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS MOVEMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE STORMS...AND HOPEFULLY LIMIT ANY PROLONGED
FLOODING ISSUES.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT
HEADING INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS TONIGHT...BUT BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE IN PLAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
NORTHERN OHIO. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE CIGS AND VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY MID DAY ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK






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