Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 250832
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night
Rain showers continue east of highway 51 early this morning while
isolated thunderstorms with heavier rains are ext of IL over IN/KY.
Clouds blanket much of IL with clearing skies working into eastern
parts of IA/MO. 1002 mb low pressure near Kankakee in NE IL as its
cold front pushing east toward the IL/IN border at predawn. Temps
in the mid to upper 50s east of I-55 drop into the upper 40s by
Galesburg and Macomb where breezy nw winds develop behind the cold
front west of I-57.
Showers should exit east of IL by 12Z/7 am and clouds decrease
from west to east during the morning. A fair amount of sunshine
expected later this morning and afternoon with breezy wnw winds.
Highs this afternoon 70-75F with coolest readings over eastern IL
where sunshine appears later. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to
around 50F as winds diminish and turn wsw with mostly clear skies.
A weak front drops southward into central IL Sat with dry
conditions prevailing. Highs range from lower 70s ne of I-74 to
upper 70s to near 80F sw areas. Similar highs expected Sunday.
Have chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms arriving during
Sat night nw half of CWA with best chances nw of IL river
overnight Sat night into Sunday morning. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase from west to east during Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night. SPC has slight risk of severe storms sw half of
CWA late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Leading short wave
from developing large storm system in the central Rockies to move
into IL Sunday afternoon and Sunday night increasing chances of
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
Extended models and their ensembles continue to show a
large/strong cutoff upper level low that ejects east out of CO
Sunday morning into IL by the middle of next week. Models have
trended further north with this upper level low and qpf amounts
are higher, closer to 2 inches from Sunday through Thu with
heaviest qpf Sunday night through Monday night. Severe storms are again
possible Monday into Monday evening especially southern counties.
Highs in the low to mid 70s Monday drop into the mid to upper 50s
over central IL Wed-Fri with lower 60s in southeast IL. A fair
amount of low clouds expected during next week along with daily
threat of showers though chances gradually diminish later next
work week as upper level low weakens and begins to pull slowly
away from IL ne into the Great Lakes region.
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014
The primary forcing for precip over the first 3 hours of the TAF
period will be mainly east of CMI to Effingham. That timing will
coincide with the progression of the surface low from just east of
Peoria to central Indiana by 12z/7am. As the upper trough advances
through IL behind the surface low, a band of low level moisture
will drop ceilings to low MVFR around 1k feet for several hours.
Patchy drizzle or sprinkles will be possible during that time, as
indicated by a few upstream observations and radar trends.
Have extended precip chances until later tonight at all TAF sites,
with clearing following relatively quickly after the 1k foot
ceilings depart to the east.
Southeast winds will continue for an hour or two ahead of the low
at BMI/DEC/CMI, then winds will become northwest. Wind speeds will
increase to 12-15kt gusting to 22-24kt early in the morning as peak
pressure rises occur. Winds will weaken by late morning into the
10-12kt range until sunset when wind directions shift to west then