Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220537
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1137 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Moisture channel satellite imagery depicts minor vort max near
Quincy moving to the northeast. Radar showing development of some
very light pcpn ahead of the vort max over north central IL.
Updated the grids for sprinkles for few hours late this evening.
Clouds have come back into the region with the wave.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Low pressure currently over southern Alberta will track into eastern
South Dakota by 12z Mon.  Ahead of the system, a tightening pressure
gradient will produce southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 mph across
central Illinois tonight.  Due to these sustained winds and a partly
to mostly cloudy sky, overnight low temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than last night and several degrees warmer than
either the MAV or MET guidance.  Lows will once again be coolest
across the SE KILX CWA where skies will initially be mostly clear
and warmest across the W/NW where clouds will hold firm.  Readings
will range from the upper 20s near the Indiana border to the middle
30s along/west of I-55.  Any precipitation associated with the
approaching system will remain west of the Mississippi River until
later Monday morning, as forecast soundings remain dry through 12z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Beginning to look like a good news/bad news scenario setting up with
the storm system expected to impact central and southeast Illinois
from Monday into Christmas Eve. If recent model trends hold, the
good news will be that significant weather related travel impacts
are not expected on Christmas Eve in the area. The bad news, for
some, would be that a "White Christmas" is looking less likely
locally.

We are still looking at active weather the next few days as a
complex, slow moving, storm system impacts the area. A 160+ kt
upper-level jet crashing into the Pacific NW & northern Rockies will
continue to amplify troffing over the middle of the nation, a trof
that will be with us for a few days.

A closed upper low is expected to develop over the northern
Plains/upper Midwest Monday, nearly vertically stacked with an
associated surface low. The WAA/isentropic lift ahead of these lows
will be accompanied by a periods of rainfall from Monday into Monday
night. Then, another vigorous piece of upper energy will round the
base of the mean trof Tuesday into Wednesday, accompanied by the
development of another surface low. This second low will become the
dominant low, with the first low expected to dissipate. A dry slot
is progged to wrap around the initial upper low, no doubt aided by
the secondary wave intercepting much of the deeper moisture. This
dry slot may result in much of Tuesday/Tuesday night ending up dry
across the northwest 1/2 of the forecast area, certainly drier than
it looked yesterday. The southeast 1/2 of the forecast area should
see rain chances persisting Tuesday and Tuesday night, as this area
will be closer to the track of the secondary wave. The remaining
precipitation will change over to light snow on Christmas Eve, but
model agreement is strengthening and this suggests that snowfall
will not be a significant impact across the forecast area.

Mostly dry conditions are expected by Christmas Day as the system
heads northeast into Canada. Another, much weaker, system is progged
to impact the area by Friday. However, guidance suggests that this
system will have minimal moisture to work with until it moves east
of the forecast area. This is because there will not have been much
time for the atmosphere to recover from the cold/dry advection in
the wake of the midweek system. So, only have a slight chance of
rain and/or snow for Friday into Friday night. While temperatures
will be above normal for much of this week, they will trend below
normal behind Friday`s system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Moisture channel satellite imagery shows vort max about Macomb
now, continuing to track to the northeast. Few sprinkles ahead of
the vort max moved to the northeast of area. HRRR model still
shows IFR cigs developing north into the central TAF sites around
15z and so timed IFR conditions coming into area accordingly. As
the upper system gets closer, lowered the vsb to IFR levels.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Goetsch





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