Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 050858
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The storm system that brought snow to southeast Illinois yesterday
and last evening was finally starting to shift away from our
forecast area early this morning. At the surface, high pressure
tracking southeast across northwest Iowa will drift across our
area today bringing another 24 hours of unseasonably cold weather
with afternoon highs struggling through the teens over most of the
forecast area, which is about 30 degrees below where it should be
for the first week in March. As the large fair weather system drifts
closer to central Illinois today, the wind this afternoon will not be
as gusty as what we saw yesterday. However, this morning, that will
be a different story, as the pressure gradient will be tight enough
for a few more hours to produce just enough wind to drop wind chills
down to between -10 to -15 mainly north of I-74 for a few hours early
this morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Pretty tranquil weather through the period, with no precipitation
chances in the forecast into the middle of next week. Periodic upper
waves will zip through the area in the northern jet stream, but
moisture levels will be meager and little more than wind shifts are
expected in our area. The longer range models are in general
agreement with this pattern into mid week.

The main highlight will be the welcome trend toward milder weather.
The long wave trough from Lake Superior to New Mexico evident on
early morning water vapor imagery will move through the Midwest
later today. Lows in the single digits are still expected tonight,
but the coldest temperatures will be this evening, with steady or
rising temperatures overnight after surface high pressure settles
into the Ohio Valley. However, wind chills well below zero are on
tap, as low as 10 below in areas from Bloomington to Danville. After
that, nice southwest flow should get much of the western half of the
forecast area above freezing on Friday. Temperatures will continue
to warm into next week, with most areas well into the 50s by
Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period as a surface
high pressure slides over the terminals tonight into tomorrow. The
departing storm system over southern Illinois is leaving some
lingering cloud cover over the TAF sites. A BKN layer at 17kft is
included for all of the sites to begin the period, with the
exception of PIA. Lower level clouds, which are evident on
satellite over southeast Iowa into western Illinois, have already
entered GBG upstream of PIA, so have included a BKN layer at 4kft
for PIA. This lower cloud layer may make its way into the other
sites, but just kept a SCT deck for the other sites at 4kft. Skies
will begin to clear as the surface high presses further into
central Illinois later tomorrow. Winds will be around 5 to 10 kts out
of the northwest tonight into tomorrow, shifting to the west and
south and becoming light by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...ALW






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.