Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

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