Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261714
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1214 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATE TODAY
AND OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 956 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW CLOUD HAD ADVECTED BACK WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOW CLOUDS LOOK TO BE SLOWING MOVING/ERODING EAST.
HAVE UPPED SKY COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON THESE TRENDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR WEST BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM NEXT SYSTEM.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND DELAYED THEM UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES YET...WAITING TO SEE HOW
FAST LOW CLOUD DECK DIMINISHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS STILL ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THIS MORNING...PROBABLY CLEARING THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND EASTERN SECTIONS BY LATE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS ONLY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WEST CENTRAL AND RAIN FAR
SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND...BUT SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES
REST OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS BRING SOME QPF MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND FAR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
THIS TO FALL AS SNOW. A FEW AREAS FAR SOUTH MAY RECEIVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS OUR EAST HALF THURSDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SOME FETCH OFF OF LATE MICHIGAN.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.   THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A
WARMING TREND LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR MOST PERIODS A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL BUMP HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY BUT
BRING RAIN WITH IT AS WELL THROUGH SUNDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY THOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.  SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

TWO DIFFERENT CLOUD FIELDS EFFECTING CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CIGS OVER INDIANA WERE SLOWLY ADVECTING WEST AND ERODING.
MEANWHILE...A HIGHER VFR CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES.
THUS AS THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AND THE VFR CIGS ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEM A PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PLACE THE TAF SITES IN
THE COLD SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHTS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND OBS UPSTREAM SUGGEST MVFR CIGS AS THIS PASSES DUE TO
SATURATED LOWER LEVEL. FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN PROBLEMS FOR
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS OM THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AMID SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP

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