Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 111508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1004 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

FLOW FROM CANADA WILL ALLOW COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
MID FEBRUARY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
THEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW ARE THEN POSSIBLE INTO
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF TODAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...LOWERED SKY AMOUNTS A LITTLE AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MOVE TO
CENTRAL INDIANA BY 00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THANKS IN PART
TO FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MOST OTHER AREAS LATE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

MAV MOS FOR HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE IN...AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOW FORCING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW
CHANCES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION
OF BEST FORCING. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS
BY 12Z FRIDAY. CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AT THE MOMENT...SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
HOWEVER THE SNOW MIGHT BE ONGOING AT RUSH HOUR FRIDAY...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES.

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
INDIANA. SOME OF THESE MAY REACH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO WENT WITH LOW POPS THERE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK SNOW POTENTIAL FOLLOWED BY RISING
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING A COMMON
SOLUTION FOR WHAT AREA SHOULD RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS AN UPPER
WAVE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. MORE THAN
ONE EURO RUN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BROUGHT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AXIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW
WELL SOUTH AGAIN OVER TENNESSEE WHICH AGREES WITH THE 00Z GFS. BASED
ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET. STILL...THE
INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRAILING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH LIGHT OR POSSIBLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING MORE LIGHT
QPF TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. PARTIAL MODEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MIXED.

REGIONAL BLEND HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY AND
WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 902 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
09Z FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND THAT. UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER IT STARTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST AND WEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/CP


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