Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281757
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
157 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms formed across the area this afternoon
and will continue moving to the northeast with hail and damaging
winds as the main threats. A cold front will move through tonight
putting the showers and storms to an end and bringing cooler and drier
air into the region for Memorial Day Monday and the early work
week. However, a shower or storm can`t be ruled out later in the
day Memorial Day and then Tuesday afternoon as well as a result
of a disturbance moving through each day. Temps drop back into the
mid to upper 50s tonight before rebounding into the 70s on
Memorial Day. Highs will trend down into the mid to upper 60s for
Wednesday with the cooler air moving in behind the cold front.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Atmosphere beginning to destabilize as clouds have thinned and
diurnal heating is underway. CAMs all in decent agreement on
thunderstorms developing in the 17-20z time frame and moving out
of the east this evening. MLCAPE expected in the 1500-2500 j/kg
range with mid level lapse rates around 7c/km. Models only
showing 0-3km shear of 20-30 knots but deeper 0-6km shear more
favorable around 40 knots as upper level jet streak moves through.
Expecting broken line of storms to develop with stronger updrafts
having potential for damaging winds and large hail this afternoon
and early evening. Forecast on track but did make some minor
tweeks to pops and timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Airmass over our area will destabilize today as an upr trof moves
east to the wrn Grtlks. This should allow tstms to develop over
wrn portions of our area early this aftn and spread east across
ern portions later this aftn. Given forecast of moderate
instability with cape apchg 1500j/kg and modest deep layer shear
near 30kt, some potential for a few storms with damaging winds and
large hail in our area. Decent mixing and a warm start to the day
should allow temps to top out in the m70s despite considerable
cloudiness and dvlpg storms/cold pools this aftn.

Storms expected to move east out of the cwa early this eve
as cdfnt moves through. WSW gradient should keep some mixing
going overnight limiting temp falls despite clearing skies with
lows expected in the m50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Upr low over srn Manitoba expected to move to the upr Grtlks Monday
and then lift slowly ne Tue/Wed. Mainly a cool/dry period, but
shrtwv`s rotating around this low may cause a few showers in the
area each day. Another upr low expected to track slowly se across
srn Ontario Thu-Fri and to Quebec Saturday. Swly low level flow
should develop ahead of this system allowing for some
destabilization in our area by Fri as cdfnt approaches which may
allow tstms to develop. This front expected to move slowly south
across the cwa keeping a chc of showers in the area through
Saturday, with temps turning cooler after a brief/modest late week
warmup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Low pressure pushes into Michigan dragging a cold front through
the area during the afternoon. Dew points into and around 60
degrees this morning will rise into the mid 60s during the early
afternoon with ample MUCAPE and 30 kts of shear with thunderstorms
likely and strong to severe storms possible across the area. Will
include a VCTS mention from 2PM until the early overnight to cover
this. With diurnal heating, continue to expect initial MVFR CIGs
will lift into VFR into this afternoon aside from brief reductions
into MVFR as a result of thunderstorm effects. Drier air comes in
behind the front for later tonight and Memorial day allowing for
VFR conditions though an afternoon shower can`t be ruled out on
Monday.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lashley
SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Roller


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