Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 311846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
246 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A warm front will slowly work back north into the area with
increasingly humid air for tonight into Wednesday night. A cold
front will sweep across the area Wednesday afternoon and night
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms...followed by a
trend to cooler and less humid conditions that should persist into
next week. Highs today will reach the middle to upper 80s across
the area with lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Sfc ridging cntrd through the ern lakes slow to give up the ghost
ahd of apchg stg sw and attendant sfc fntl zone shifting out of
the plains. Old washed out fntl bndry fm the weekendworking back
nwd this aftn alg wrn periphery of ll anticyclone andlooks to
spark isold shra/tsra acrs far wrn/swrn zones this aftn. While
CAMS guidance differs widely in this potential will blend
of hrrr/spc 4km wrf and carry isold chc mention far west this
aftn/eve.

Flw slow to veer overnight and xpc any downstream forced shra/tsra
to hold wwd acrs IL within increasing ll theta-e ridge. This ftr
xpcd to progress ewd on wed and mid lvl cyclone conts ewd through
the mn arrowhead. While forcing invof sfc fntl zone and fvrbl ll
theta-e ridge exists... will hold w/mid range chc pops cntrl/west in
the aftn and cwa wide wed evening as btr larger scale forcing passes
well nw acrs the upr midwest. Regardless mid lvl cyclone opens up
overnight wed through thu as it lifts out acrs se Canada which will
allow swd extending sfc bndry to accelerate ewd. Sharp 12Z model
consensus dropping thu morning shra mention se as deep lyrd post
fntl drying spreads sewd acrs the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Flat wrly flow aloft in wake of shrt term sys buckles sigly this
weekend in reponse to stg upstream ridge dvlpmnt acrs the wrn US.
Leading sw looks quite robust as it digs rapidly sewd through the
wrn lakes lt sat into erly sun and offers up what shld be a good
chc for needed rain sat aftn into erly sun. This sys will be slow
to eject out through the St Lawrence valley w/some lingering
diurnally enhanced shra probable both sun/mon aftn. Otrws much
cooler temps xpcd given abundant cld cvr and seasonably stg ll caa
acrs the OH valley.

Beyond that upr pattn looks remarkably quite locally inbtwn
persisting ern Canada mean troughing and Rockies dominant upr ridging
w/a rtn of dry wx and moderating temps xpcd locally dys 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

High pressure gradually erodes and shifts eastward today and
tonight. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will
bring increase boundary layer moisture and instability will lead to
increasing cloud cover and isolated threat of showers/thunderstorms
late in the forecast period.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lewis


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