Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 192346 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
546 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT A LINGERING WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS WE GO INTO
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING
SATURDAY...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO SHOW MUCH CLEARING IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE
YEAR...SO HAVE STAYED PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. IF IT DOES
STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A LITTLE COOLER
THAN FORECAST.

THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH CLEARING THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS COULD HELP TO
BRING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE LOWER THAN USUAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY AS INTENSE PACIFIC JET
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG OUT AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS PATTERN CORRELATES WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INCLUDING EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS AS INDICATED BY SLU
CIPS ANALOGS. IT IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN OUTLOOKS BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE WESTWARD
TREND OF THE TROUGH HOLDS TRUE. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS QUITE A BIT
COOLER AND QUITE WINDY AFTER THE TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE
COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS CHRISTMAS
DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW WITH TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND SENDS WIDESPREAD RAIN INLAND. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE COMMON THOUGH SOME SITES MAY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT SATURDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  53  40  58 /  87  12   7   8
MERIDIAN      41  55  41  58 /  94  24   7   8
VICKSBURG     41  53  38  57 /  74  10   3   8
HATTIESBURG   45  57  44  59 /  85  33  12  22
NATCHEZ       42  52  41  58 /  80  15   5  10
GREENVILLE    37  50  36  55 /  65   5   3   8
GREENWOOD     37  53  36  57 /  78  10   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/28




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