Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 261007
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH WAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED A STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING BUT
THEN SLOWLY ERODE TODAY FROM THE WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER EAST AS WELL RESULTING IN LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. DESPITE
THE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER NORTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT MORE THAN TEN DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON
SUNDAY AT MOST SITES. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS THE WHOLE AREA WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S. BY TUESDAY
MORNING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTS AND
WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
KEEPING THE GULF CLOSED AND A DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA. THE RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT FOLLOWED BY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...AND THEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CAUSE A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO TREK THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  THIS WILL BRINGS SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES...PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.  BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FRIDAY BACK IN THE 50S AND LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND EXIST AREAWIDE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE
COUNTRY...OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEST SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND.  THIS IS THANKS TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.  THIS WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ALOFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION...CUTTING
OFF A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS DIGGING TROUGH...
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SOMETIME LATE ON MONDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...CENTRAL AND EAST TAF SITES WERE STILL REPORTING GUSTS
FROM 18-24KTS AT 08Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER EAST. A LAYER OF STRATOCU WAS ALSO BEING OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. GIGS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST. VFR CONDS
THIS AFTN WL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  37  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      51  36  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     55  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  39  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       56  37  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    53  37  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     50  36  59  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/19/22







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