Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$






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