Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 310842
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
342 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today through Thursday night)...Changes are on the
horizon heading into late week as a weak cold front moves into the
area, while TD 9 passes safely south and east of us.

The forecast for today and tonight is largely a persistence one as
very weak ridging continues to extend across the area. Though deep
layer moisture remains somewhat unimpressive, opted to include
slight chance POP over a larger portion of the area today based on
what we`ve seen the past couple days in a similar regime. Any precip
should taper off quickly after sunset.

Meanwhile, a weak surface front will push southward across the
Midwest today ahead of a burgeoning East Coast mid/upper trough. As
the front noses closer to the area during the day tomorrow, a subtle
swell in deep layer moisture ahead of the system will provide
slightly greater rain chances across the area, so I opted to go above
most guidance options, again in the slight chance category. The
front will begin to move through tomorrow night, with sensibly drier
air moving into the northern half of the area and temps perhaps
sneaking into the upper 60s in some spots.

Though convection continued to be more prevalent around TD 9
overnight, the system remains a depression this morning as it
continues to crawl westward. Latest model track guidance remains in
reasonable harmony, indicating the system will begin moving north
northeastward today ahead of the previously mentioned mid/upper
trough. TD 9 could reach tropical storm strength later this morning,
and landfall is expected tomorrow evening somewhere near the
interface between the northern FL peninsula and the eastern FL
panhandle. /DL/

Long Term (Friday through next Tuesday)...With high pressure
wedged into our region from the northeast, and with the help of
what`s currently Tropical Depression 9 lifting northeast up the East
Coast of the United States, noticeably drier air is expected over
the CWA as we end the work week and start the upcoming weekend. Some
small rain chances will reside across the south in the vicinity of
the Highway 84 corridor over Labor Day weekend, but the majority of
the forecast area will remain rain free Friday through Sunday. Highs
Friday will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s, upper 80s to mid 90s
Saturday, and low to middle 90s Sunday afternoon.  Meanwhile with
the drier airmass residing over the region, lows will be noticeably
cooler Friday night as they range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Then as the weekend progresses, they`ll warm a bit with upper 60s to
lower 70s expected both Saturday and Sunday nights.

Moisture subtly increases Monday into Tuesday under a more southeast
flow, along with chances for showers and storms both afternoons. The
better chances for this will be across southern and western zones as
they`ll reside on the fringes of high pressure wedged into the
forecast area from the east.  Still, the majority of the area will
remain dry.  Highs both afternoons will be in the low and middle
90s, with lows each night in the low and middle 70s. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through
the TAF period. Very brief MVFR visibilities cannot be ruled out at
a site or two this morning around daybreak, but no significant fog
is expected. This afternoon, isolated SHRA are possible, but
probabilities are too low at any given site to include in TAFs. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  75  94  73 /  12  10  17  11
Meridian      97  75  96  74 /  11   9  18  11
Vicksburg     96  75  94  74 /  16  10  16  11
Hattiesburg   94  74  95  75 /  10   7  19  12
Natchez       93  73  94  72 /  11   6  16  11
Greenville    97  75  91  70 /  17  11  17  11
Greenwood     96  74  93  70 /  17  12  16  11

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/19



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