Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 302016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
316 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night...The upper level low
continues to meander about the Ohio River Valley this afternoon,
placing us under continued northwest flow aloft. While high pressure
at the sureface will maintain quiet weather across the region
through at least Saturday night, the upper low will begin to lift
north into the Great Lakes region on Saturday, causing flow aloft
over us to become more westerly.  This will result in a gradual
warming trend across the forecast area.

Under mostly clear skies tonight, lows will again be chilly as they
fall into the low and middle 50s.  On Saturday, highs will rebound a
degree or two compared to Friday, and will top out in the low and
middle 80.  Then for Saturday night, lows will also be a bit
warmer as they fall mid and upper 50s.

The overall evolution of the forecast remains unchange Sunday
through next Thursday. Thus, the previous long term forecast
discussion follows. /19/

Sunday through Thursday night...The upper low will continue to move
northeast out of the Ohio Valley but upper troughing will persist on
Sunday. Expect warmer highs in the mid 80s on Sunday as models
suggest warmer H850/H925 temps. Both the GFS/ECMWF begin to build
upper ridging over the area Sunday night into Monday with the warming
trend continuing. Highs on Monday will climb into the mid/upper 80s,
and as upper heights continue to increase across the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees.

The GFS/ECMWF both deepen an upper trough over the southern plains
on Wednesday with the ECMWF the faster of the models. The ECMWF
develops some precip over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
while the GFS keeps the precip west. The ECMWF is deeper with the
trough on Thursday and drives a cold front across the area on
Thursday along with precip. The GFS keeps the trough to the north of
the area and builds upper ridging back in. Will continue to keep at
least slight chance thunder on Thursday to align with our neighbors.
If Hurricane Matthew takes a track up the east coast like the GFS
suggest, expect the extended to mainly be dry, but its unclear what
track Matthew will take at this time. /15/


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
evening. Winds will be light and generally out of a northerly
direction. Winds will go calm tonight before switching out of the
west tomorrow(especially in the Delta). Some patchy fog may be
possible in a few spots before daybreak but widespread or dense fog
is not expected. VFR conditions will again prevail tomorrow./28/


Jackson       54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   2
Meridian      53  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   2
Vicksburg     52  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   2
Hattiesburg   55  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   5
Natchez       55  80  57  82 /   0   0   0   5
Greenville    55  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   2
Greenwood     54  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   2


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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