Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 262021
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
321 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Overall pattern looks to remain mostly unchanged through
the period with the prevailing westerlies remaining over the northern
CONUS and elongated ridge over the southern CONUS. In the elongated
ridge, a weakness will exist over the lower MS river valley in the
form of a cyclonic shear axis. Presently, at the lower end of the
shear axis over southeast LA exists a mid level cold core low and its
associated surface trough. Deep, tropical moisture is associated with
these features over the northern Gulf of Mexico with precipitable
waters running close to 2.4 inches. This moisture has been surging
northward in the flow around these features and should lead to a
relative ease of convective development due to sufficient convergence
in the low level wind field, as has been the case already over the
southeast. Abundance of moisture will lead to locally heavy rainfall,
especially considering how slow storm movements will be.

The mid level cold core and surface trough look to continue moving
northward through the weakness, eventually becoming absorbed into it
by Thursday. Until then, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms should be the rule Wednesday and Thursday during the
heat of the day with a continuation, although less coverage, at night
due to sustained low level convergence near the surface trough.

Daytime heating during the first half of the forecast period will be
tempered somewhat from what we have been experiencing lately due to
the increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Beyond Thursday, a good scattering of mainly diurnal convection
looks to continue over the region in proximity to the semi-stationary
shear axis with the best coverage over the north in the deepest
moisture. As convective converage begins to lessen over the weekend,
temperatures will begin an upward creep eventually returning to the
mid 90s by the first part of next week./26/


&&

.AVIATION...Expect mainly diurnal SHRA/TSRA this afternoon
through tomorrow to pose greater concerns for hazardous aviation
weather conditions, especially tomorrow Wednesday. Due to increasing
tropical moisture and lift, the threat for MVFR ceilings will
increase, especially during the early/mid morning hours (although
some MVFR ceilings will still be possible through the day around HBG
and MEI, even away from thunderstorms). Any IFR conditions will be
more likely around HBG/PIB/JAN/HKS. Some storms today and tomorrow
could contain some gusty winds, especially in the afternoon hours.
Late night rain will also be a concern around GLH. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  86  74  88 /  42  66  27  57
Meridian      74  91  73  92 /  29  52  24  36
Vicksburg     74  85  74  87 /  51  86  51  70
Hattiesburg   75  87  74  92 /  46  62  23  36
Natchez       74  84  74  87 /  57  78  33  59
Greenville    76  89  75  85 /  42  75  65  77
Greenwood     75  86  74  84 /  40  79  54  72

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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