Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 072131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
330 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016


Tonight and Thursday:

Clouds are trying to erode in various spots across the forecast area
this afternoon, but many folks are still having to make due without
a hint of sunshine for yet another day. A weak stalled frontal
boundary along the coast has been instigating these stubborn clouds
since yesterday as moist, warm air above the surface is forced north
over the shallow cold layer.

Clouds will continue to be a major facet to the forecast for another
day, but a rather big time (temperature-wise) secondary cold front
coming through tonight through tomorrow will finally work to start
gradually sweeping clouds south of the region by tomorrow afternoon
into tomorrow evening. In the meantime, enough moisture and lift
could juxtapose with this secondary fropa to bring some light rain
to the region late tonight through midday tomorrow, but mainly over
western and southern portions of the forecast area. There are some
concerns to the north and northwest of our forecast area that rain
could briefly change over the light snow before ending but
confidence is high that any wintry concerns should remain away from
our region.

The timing of the big push of chilly air tomorrow will mean readings
in the morning ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s will struggle
to move upwards much throughout the day. In addition, the gusty
north winds tomorrow will combine with the cold temps to make wind
chills a big factor (although still well above advisory thresholds).

Thursday Night through Wednesday...

Relatively quiet weather is expected across the forecast area from
late this week through the middle of next week as a progressive
zonal flow pattern remains in place over the CONUS. The most notable
weather will be the frigid temperatures expected Friday morning and
Saturday morning as a roughly 1035 mb surface high settles into the
region. North winds on Thursday night may stay up just enough(5 to
10 mph) to make see wind chills drop into the teens. Actual
temperatures may drop into the low 20s on Saturday morning with
lighter winds expected. Friday afternoon will be chilly with highs
ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. These temperatures should be
warm enough to limit the need for any Hard Freeze headlines or
mentions in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but area residents should
still take precautions to protect pets and exposed pipes from the
cold temperatures. A fast moving shortwave is expected to pass north
of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday, and bring with it the
next cold front and chance for rain.
Current forecast soundings indicate light to moderate rain showers
are possible as the front moves through, but do not expect any
thunderstorms. It should be noted the GFS and CMC have the front
clear of the area mostly by Monday morning, though the ECMWF is
slower and keeps rain into the afternoon on Monday. /NF/


18Z TAF discussion:
A majority of sites will experience MVFR conditions due mainly to
ceilings through tonight as a cold front edges south into the region.
A few light rain showers could affect locations (mainly GLH/HKS/JAN)
but impacts should be minor. A few pockets of IFR ceilings are around
HKS/JAN at present, but they should improve to MVFR in the next few
hours. Once again a few pockets of IFR ceilings will develop late
tonight. Expect north winds to pick up and be gusty tomorrow morning
and help bring all sites to VFR well before noon. /BB/


Jackson       43  48  24  44 /  15  21   6   0
Meridian      42  50  24  45 /  13  16   4   0
Vicksburg     42  47  24  42 /  19  24   7   0
Hattiesburg   46  53  27  47 /  17  22   4   0
Natchez       43  46  26  43 /  27  33   7   0
Greenville    38  44  24  39 /  16  10   1   0
Greenwood     37  45  22  40 /  15  11   1   0





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