Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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153
FXUS64 KJAN 090347
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER MIXED OVER
MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING UP A
BIT AS A RESULT...HOWEVER AM SEEING EVIDENCE OF SOME DECOUPLING IN
THE PINE BELT REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING MORE QUICKLY THERE
AS WAS EXPECTED. OVERALL...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON THE TRENDS AND FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE RAW
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE CAA REGIME. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRATOCUMULUS CIGS IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE GWO-GTR TO PERHAPS MEI AREA. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE COMBINED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A RATHER
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRO MOST SITES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THAT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A WEEK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       30  47  28  51 /   3   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  45  24  49 /   7   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     31  50  28  52 /   3   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   30  50  29  55 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  52  30  53 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    30  47  28  48 /   3   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  44  25  46 /   5   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN



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