Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 021819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...

ANTICIPATING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...
AND AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES WELL INLAND...MEETING WITH
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN OUR WRN FL COUNTIES TOWARD 00Z.
ANTICIPATE COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR
AROUND 23Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER IN THE 02-04Z PERIOD IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S...SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...WED THROUGH THU...

WED & WED NIGHT...TUTT LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL TREK
WNW AND OVER THE FL STRAITS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SE FL ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT AS THE TUTT PUSHES
EAST...SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TUTT WILL TEMPER
CONVECTION OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTN...WITH THE BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
80S COAST TO LOW/MID 90S INLAND. WED EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPPER OFF
INLAND WHILE A SHOWERS/TSTORMS BLOSSOM OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/EASTERLY WAVE ROTATES NWD UP THE
FL ATLANTIC COAST AS THE TUTT PROGRESSES OVER THE SE GULF. A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL AFFECT THE COAST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S WITH SIMILAR DEW PTS...WITH NEAR 70 WELL INLAND.

THU & THU NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER INLAND NE FL BETWEEN
THE COAST AND I-75 AS MOISTURE FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH AND FORCING
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TUTT PHASE. ALTHO COVERAGE OF RAIN CHANCES
INCREASES OVER INLAND NE FL...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO OVER NE FL GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM AND
DRY MID LEVELS (500 MB TEMP -6 DEG C) WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE
40-45% RANGE. SUBSIDENCE OVER SE GA WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
CLIMO NEAR 30-35%. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARDS. PRECIP WILL FADE INLAND IN THE
EVENING WHILE CONTINUING OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST UNDER
DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD
WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST.

.LONG TERM...FRI-TUE...

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRI AND SAT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM A DAMPENING
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AND ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE TUTT
LOW MEANDERING IN THE EASTERN GULF. ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
40-50% RANGE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING OVER
INLAND AREAS. SUN THROUGH TUE A SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED AFTN/EVENING STORM COVERAGE
OVER SE GA...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TEMPER CONVECTION WITH
500 MB TEMPS -6 DEG C. WILL TREND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TOWARD NEAR
CLIMO VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH A FOCUS FOR SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR MON/TUE AFTNS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE TOWARD 00Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL GA INTO INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL. COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT LOWER
CONDITIONS VICINITY OF TSRA. MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TOWARD
DAWN.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COMBINED SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  40
SSI  76  87  76  86 /  10  30  20  20
JAX  73  91  74  90 /  20  20  10  30
SGJ  74  87  75  88 /  10  30  20  30
GNV  72  91  71  89 /  40  30  30  40
OCF  72  91  72  89 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/ENYEDI/WALSH







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