Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 180219
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL AND MOIST
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 DEGREES INLAND BUT
LIKELY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S...AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TO
CROSS-OVER BELOW THESE VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS...FOG WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...BUT SOME NEGATING FACTORS ARE THE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW...TAKING A LOOK AT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS (NARRE/HRRR) BOTH SHOW AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL FROM LIVE OAK SOUTHWARD TO
GAINESVILLE/OCALA...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZFP
IN THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE HWO
DUE TO THE MODERATE-HIGH PROBS OF THIS POSSIBILITY AS DEPICTED IN
THE NARRE/HRRR MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF FOG WILL BE JUST AROUND THE
SUNRISE HOUR. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL FOG AT KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1-3 FT INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  63  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  43  62  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  39  64  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  41  63  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  65  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  39  67  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER



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