Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 231836
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...WINDY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL OPEN UP
AND BROADEN OUT ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENING AND REMAINING OFFSHORE WHICH
WILL KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE BUT THERE MAY STILL BE
CONVERGENT RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE ASHORE THE COAST BY THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS
GOING THERE BUT LOWER ELSEWHERE. THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER.MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL START TO WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALLOWING A SURGE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE FL/SE GA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PERSIST GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZES
TO MOVE INLAND WITH INLAND CONVECTION DRIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
BY LATE DAY GIVEN LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. PWATS REMAIN HIGH AT
2+ INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD SO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN COVERAGE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VQQ, JAX, AND GNV WILL LIKELY MIX ENOUGH TO SCATTER OUT
OF MVFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
AT COASTAL TERMINALS SSI AND CRG. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW CIGS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY AND CMAN OBS INDICATE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS HAVE MADE IT TO ST AUGUSTINE BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT FROM THE INVERTED
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM ST
AUGUSTINE NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE SOME BY MID WEEK...AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ONSHORE WINDS WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  80  62  82 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  68  77  67  81 /  50  40  50  50
JAX  69  81  67  83 /  40  40  40  50
SGJ  72  82  71  84 /  50  50  60  70
GNV  68  83  66  85 /  20  30  30  50
OCF  69  85  70  88 /  20  50  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALSH











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