Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 280912
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
512 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...High Risk of Rip Currents Expected at Area Beaches Today...

.Currently...
Tropical Depression #2 (1009 millibars) was centered about 250
miles to the east of St. Augustine and was moving northwestward
around 15 mph. High pressure (1024 millibars) was centered near
Bermuda. Aloft...an upper level trough was positioned along the
Florida east coast and extended southward through the western
Bahamas, while ridging covered the remainder of the western
Atlantic and extended eastward into the mid-Atlantic states. Bands
of showers associated with the circulation of TD #2 were moving
west-southwest into our outer coastal waters. A few low clouds
were moving westward over coastal southeast Georgia. Otherwise,
fair skies and light winds prevailed over our area, with
temperatures and dewpoints at 09Z in the low/mid 60s inland and
light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures in the mid 70s at
the coast.

.Near Term /Today and Tonight/...
TD #2 will make its closest approach to our region today and
tonight on its northwestward trajectory, passing about 150 miles
off the southeast Georgia coast. Our local pressure gradient will
tighten this morning, with breezy northeasterly winds developing for
locations along and east of the St. Johns River basin in northeast
and north central FL and for locations along and east of U.S.
Highway 301 in southeast GA. Despite being on the subsident side
of TD #2`s circulation, slightly deeper moisture and some
enhanced convergence will develop isolated to widely scattered
showers along the I-95 corridor around noon, with a broken line of
convection progressing W/SW towards inland locations as the
afternoon progresses. Onshore winds will keep coastal highs in the
low/mid 80s, with plenty of sun, northerly winds and an overall dry
air mass allowing inland highs to climb into the upper 80s to low
90s.

TD #2 is forecast to strengthen slightly later today and tonight
as it moves over the warm Gulf Stream waters. As this weak
tropical cyclone approaches the South Carolina coastal waters, our
winds will back around to a northerly and then northwesterly
direction overnight. Isolated to widely scattered convection
should remain confined to the coastal waters with this wind
regime and atmospheric subsidence prevailing over our area. Light
winds and mostly clear skies will again allow for relatively
comfortable lows inland, where mid 60s are forecast. Coastal lows
will actually be a few degrees cooler tonight as offshore winds
develop, with upper 60s to near 70 expected.

.Short Term /Sunday through Monday Night/...
Weak steering currents will prevail over the southeastern states
on Sunday and Monday, which should decelerate TD #2 as it moves
over coastal South Carolina. Our local pressure gradient will
loosen, with northwesterly low level winds weakening as the day
progresses and allowing for sea breeze development from St.
Augustine southward by late afternoon. An overall dry and
subsident air mass will prevail over our region, with enough
convergence along the Atlantic sea breeze to develop isolated to
widely scattered convection during the late afternoon hours,
mainly over north central FL. Offshore winds will be in place
through at least early afternoon, with plenty of sunshine boosting
highs into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the beaches.

Sun Night through Mon Night...TD2 expected to meander near the SC
Atlantic coast with upper ridging extending across the NE Gulf.
This pattern will bring a dry NNW mid/upper level flow over the
local area and limit rain chances to only around 20-30% as
diurnally enhanced sea breeze convection moves inland during the
aftn and fades inland during the evenings. Above normal temps
expected under partly cloudy skies with highs reaching the lower
90s inland Mon with low temps ranging in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
Increasing rain chances as the upper ridge across the GOMEX breaks
down and upper troughing deepens across the SE Atlantic coast.
Diurnally driven convection increases into the 40-50% range inland
under a light steering flow which should enable both sea breezes
to develop and move inland. Above to near normal temps expected
with max temps near 90 inland to mid 80s coast with lows in the
60s inland to near 70 coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Occasional MVFR ceilings of 1500-2500 feet are possible today at
SSI. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail today, with
occasional ceilings around 3000-4000 feet along with mostly brief
passing showers. Northeasterly surface winds will increase after
sunrise, with surface speeds around 15 knots expected after 15Z at
SGJ...SSI and the Duval County terminals. Northerly winds around
10 knots are expected inland at GNV. Surface winds will become
northerly at the coastal terminals this evening with gradually
decreasing speeds.

&&

.Marine...
Tropical Depression #2 was centered about 250 miles east of St.
Augustine early this morning and was moving northwestward near 15
mph. This weak tropical cyclone will make its closest approach to
our coast today and tonight, passing about 150 miles east of St.
Simons Island. Our local pressure gradient will tighten today,
which will result in strengthening northeasterly winds this
morning which will back to a northerly direction by this evening.
Winds will increase to caution levels in the Georgia coastal
waters this morning, and will reach Small Craft Advisory levels in
the offshore Georgia waters late this afternoon. Seas in the
offshore Florida waters will build to caution levels of 4-6 feet
today through Sunday. As Tropical Depression #2 approaches the
South Carolina coastal waters late tonight, winds will back
further to an offshore direction with speeds gradually decreasing.
Seas should remain in SCA criteria in the offshore Georgia waters
until the predawn hours on Sunday. Seas will diminish below
caution criteria tonight in the near shore Georgia waters. Our
local pressure gradient will continue to loosen on Sunday and
Memorial Day, with offshore winds in the morning becoming onshore
due to sea breeze developing during the early afternoon hours in
the near shore waters. Headlines are not anticipated next week
with shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing by the mid to
late week.

Rip Currents: Ocean swells originating from Tropical Depression #2
will increase and combine with breezy northeasterly winds to
create a high risk of rip currents at area beaches today,
especially during the outgoing tide during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Winds will become offshore tonight and Sunday,
but lingering ocean swells should keep a moderate risk in place
for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  65  90  68 /  20  10  10  10
SSI  83  69  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
JAX  87  67  91  70 /  20  10  20  10
SGJ  84  70  88  70 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  90  66  92  68 /  20  10  30  10
OCF  91  67  92  69 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Sunday
     for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Nelson/Enyedi



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