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000
FXUS62 KJAX 091729
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
129 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUE/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH
TUE KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH
PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF THE REGION DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND ITS NW-SE ORIENTATION...BUT THIS
EVENING DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WNW AS A TROUGH PRESSES OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
COULD HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THIS WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...OTHERWISE
DRY.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TONIGHT TO
LOW 50S COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER
WARMING EXPECTED MON/TUE NIGHTS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S. LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MON NIGHT OVER OUR FL ZONES WHERE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGEST AND SFC HUMIDITY HIGHEST.

HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND MON WITH THE
COAST COOLER IN THE LOW 70S DUE TO A LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE UNDER
MEAN LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. BY TUE HIGH TEMPS COULD BE PRESSING 80
DEG INLAND AS STRONGER AND DEEP LAYER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER RETREATS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH FL ATLANTIC COAST.

.LONG TERM.../WED-SUN/...

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPROACHES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
LONGER WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...THEN THE PHASED TROUGHS TREK EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO EARLY WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS LIFTING NE WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WED MORNING WHILE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY HUGS THE GULF COAST REGION...NOSING INLAND
POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES EARLY WED MORNING...THEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDDAY. THU...ADVERTISED
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES
FROM GILCHRIST TOWARD SOUTHERN ST JOHNS COUNTIES SOUTHWARD.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW A SLOWER APPROACH OF PRECIP TUE
EVENING...THEN ADVERTISED 60% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN GA
ZONES EARLY WED MORNING AND OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES...WITH A
SPLIT IN THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDDAY WED. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR REGION AS CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS
BECOME MORE OUT OF PHASE AS THE SYSTEM NEAR SE GA/NE FL...AND AT
THIS TIME ADVERTISED QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADVERTISED WHERE HIGHER QPF OF
0.25-0.50" WERE ADVERTISED. SEVERE T`STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

WED NIGHT THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A STRONG
1030 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER TX WITH WNW FLOW BRINGING A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS AND BREEZY DAY THU WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THE HIGH BUILDS ENE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TEMPO MVFR 09Z-13Z MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG AT GNV. LOW CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AT
GNV/VQQ THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT
OF TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL 10 KTS OR LESS WITH COMBINED SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING DOMINATES. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
OFFSHORE OF S FL MON NIGHT AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. WINDS NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS WED OFFSHORE THEN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLDER NW FLOW TRAILS THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS RELAX QUICKLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE REGION
WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED FRI.

.RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST
SWELLS WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS. LOW RISK ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  51  79 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  54  72  56  74 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  49  78  53  79 /  10  10  10  20
SGJ  53  73  56  76 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  49  79  51  79 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  48  80  51  79 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET