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774
FXUS62 KJAX 231322
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
922 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...Sfc analysis shows ridge across north central FL area
with southerly flow 5-10 mph noted in area observations. Notable
southern flow noted just above the sfc at 20-25 kt at about 1000
ft per soundings. Slightly warmer than normal temps this morning
with lows that were in the lower to mid 70s. At mid levels...high
pressure center was located a few hundred miles east of NE FL with
a mid level trough located over MS Valley area...pushing slowly
eastward. JAX sounding shows PWAT of 1.77 inches and fairly warm
temps aloft with -5C at 500 mb. These temps aloft are about 3C
warmer than climate values.

There`s plenty of low level moisture for skies to become partly
cloudy during day due to cumulus development. However...mid to
upper levels are quite dry which will help keep rain chances below
average in addition to the warm temps aloft. Essentially little
change in the forecast today...expecting some isold to scattered
convection in the aftn as the west coast sea breeze moves
inland...affecting western zones and then pushing northeast into
inland SE GA by mid to late aftn. Only slight tweaks to
temps...and to shift some isolated convection a little further
eastward. Otherwise...like yesterday a warmer than average day
with temps pushing into the lower to mid 90s and heat indices
topping out at 100-105. Beaches a little lower due to early start
to east coast sea breeze around noon or so...reaching speeds near
15 mph and gusty by the mid-late aftn. By this evening...isolated
convection expected over inland zones between about 6pm-10pm as
east coast and west coast sea breeze meet up...then convection
dissipates by midnight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Some CIGS around 4-5 ft possible with cumulus
development this aftn. No SHRA or TSRA expected at TAF sites at
this time. Southerly flow at 5-10 kt but winds will back to the
southeast for coastal TAFS by 16z-19z as the east coast sea breeze
kicks in.

&&

.MARINE...southerly flow near 10-15 kt/15 kt at this time and
expected to back as the sea breeze develops. As sfc ridge drops a
little southward today and tonight and sea breeze circulation
gets underway...low level flow will increase once again with winds
likely reaching about 15-20 kt by late aftn and early evening but
mainly from St Augustine northward. Will opt to headline SCEC for
the morning update mainly for nearshore but offshore waters may
need SCEC headline too for tonight. Rest of forecast on track.

Rip Currents: wind-wave chop and some swell at area beaches with
surf near 1-3 ft. An elevated moderate risk will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  75 /  40  20  20  30
SSI  89  77  90  78 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  93  74  94  75 /  10   0  20  20
SGJ  89  76  91  76 /  10   0  20  20
GNV  94  73  93  73 /  10  10  30  20
OCF  94  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Hess/McGinnis