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000
FXUS62 KJAX 111934
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

...PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS AND COOLER NORTH WINDS...

.SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI/...

THIS AFTN/EVENING...

SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT
WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PULL FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH TREKS FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY 20% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING...WITH A SWATH OF 30-40% OFFSHORE OVER THE
FL ATLANTIC WATERS. SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUED TO BRING A
PERSISTENT DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE JAX METRO AREA AND GA
COAST...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK NNW TOWARD DAYBREAK...THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
S AND E AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S OVER SE GA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO MINS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S OVER COASTAL NE FL TOWARD OCALA WHERE CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BREEZY NNE WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ALONG THE SE GA COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AS THE DIRECTION BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NE FL AND SE GA FROM THE NW WHICH WILL
PUSH OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SE GA AND MID/UPPER
60S IN NE FL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO SLIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL. PATCHY
FROST FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...
SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE
DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AS LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WITH HIGH POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL SHIFT ONSHORE...SO EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS SE GA AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN NE FL. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDY SKIES. LOW 50S IN SE GA AND MID/UPPER 50S IN NE FL CAN BE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
APPROACHES THE SE US.

.LONG TERM.../WEEKEND THROUGH WED/...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID WEST...WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL ENTER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR SE
GA COUNTIES MOVING FROM NW TO SE. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES...BETWEEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT...MOVING INTO SE GA/SUWANNEE
VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF NE FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SHIFT TO NW ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES...REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM UP INTO THE 70S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING THE LOW 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SAT NIGHT.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SE GA AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN NE FL
WHERE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL BE LINGERING. SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SE GA AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN NE FL.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE US
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS... CLOSEST
TO EXITING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS...SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...

LOW IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SSI AND CRG THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTN...WITH VCSH ADVERTISED AT CRG.

&&

.MARINE...

SUSTAINED NNE WINDS OF 21 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUED AT
BUOY 41008 EARLY THIS AFTN AND ST SIMONS ISLAND REPORTED A STEADY
NNE WINDS AT 16-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH. THE NAM12 HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEPICTING THE STRONGEST WIND GRADIENT OVER OUR NEARSHORE
GA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN STRONGER N WINDS NEAR 20 KTS
FUNNELING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH TRACKS FARTHER EAST. RAISED A SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH 11 PM...AND EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ONLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT NEARSHORE TO 4 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE.
WITH AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS THU SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
6-8 FT OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TEMPORARILY ON FRI THEN WINDS
VEER S FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH A
RETURN TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO ONSHORE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...ERC VALUES AND FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...REMAINING AROUND 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  60  31  63 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  47  61  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  46  64  37  66 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  54  63  46  67 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  51  66  37  70 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  53  68  40  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA      TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA      BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST      AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/MCALLISTER