Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 070222
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLC
SWWD TO THE SE CONUS GENERATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN FL AND THE WRN ATLC. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
LOW PRES SYSTEM ARE SWINGING ESE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER SRN MS
AND NW GA AT 02Z. ONE SHIELD OF RAIN IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW. THIS SECONDARY AREA IS NOW NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES AROUND 1016MB IS
LOCATED OFF THE E COAST SOME 100-120 NM E OF MAYPORT MOVING NEWD.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE FL E COAST WILL MERGE WITH THIS ONE ON SUNDAY
WHILE LIFTING NEWD AND DEEPENING OFF THE E COAST.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER OUR NRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS
STRONG LIFT OCCURS NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
SFC TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT APPEARING TO BE A BIG
FACTOR. LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES THAN PRIOR
FCSTS...BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF THIS
IN THE FCST AND GRIDS ATTM. FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND TWEAKED TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE LOWS IN MID TO
UPPER 30S IN SE GA AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NE FL. PINCHED
PRES ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER LAND (MAINLY
COASTAL NE FL) SO BUMPED WINDS UP...BUT APPEARS TO STAY JUST BELOW
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR IN LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CIGS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NLY 10-15G23KT
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NWLY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY NEAR 15G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE COAST AND THE PINCHED
PRES GRADIENT NEEDED TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL AREAS. LATEST READING AT 41008 INDICATED NNE 25G31KT WITH
SEAS OF 7 FT AND SAUF1 INDICATED SUSTAINED OF 30G34KT AT 9 PM.
GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM NEARSHORE
AND CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  55  36  59 /  70  10   0  20
SSI  41  52  39  60 / 100  50   0  20
JAX  41  54  37  64 /  90  30   0  10
SGJ  44  54  40  64 /  90  30   0  10
GNV  40  56  36  64 /  60  10   0  20
OCF  41  56  36  64 /  50  10   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET


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