Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1233 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2018

Last of the sprinkles exiting eastern Kentucky to the east with
dry conditions expected through dawn. Updated to remove all
remaining sprinkle and rain chances for the rest of the night.
Still looking like a good shot for some eastern valleys to
decouple and drop into the lower 40s. Did update the forecast for
tomorrow afternoon to refine the better rain chances based on the
latest hi-res models and the new 00z NAM coming in. Looks like the
rain chances are trending towards a faster solution. Thus, expect
rain chances to enter central Kentucky by 1 or 2 pm, reaching far
eastern Kentucky by shortly after 8 pm.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2018

A few sprinkles are working east across the area presently, but
looking back to the west and southwest, very little cloud cover is
noted. Thus, we will see these sprinkles move on through early
this evening with dry weather prevailing through the rest of the
night. We could actually see more clearing than presently
forecast, but will continue watching these trends for potential
updates. With less cloud cover expected potentially, valley
locations in the east could fall rather quick and reach the low
40s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 406 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2018

Isolated to scattered showers continue to stream from southwest to
northeast across eastern Kentucky this afternoon as warm/moist
advection takes place in south/southwest flow. Wind fields will
strengthen tonight and tomorrow downstream of an upper low
ejecting out of the Front Range into the central Plains, with a
deepening surface low edging toward the Missouri Valley. Other
than a minor ridge/valley temperature split across far eastern
Kentucky where clouds may break a bit longer owing to greater
moisture lifting north across the Bluegrass region toward the Ohio
River, this regime should keep low temperatures spanning the 40s.

One more warm day will materialize Monday downstream of the
approaching system and associated cold front, with highs topping
out in the 60s. South to southwest winds will increase toward
15-20 mph through the afternoon with gusts approaching 30 mph at
times. Lowering/thickening clouds will bring increasing rain
shower chances through the day, with the best shot arriving late
Monday afternoon and evening. While elevated instability looks to
exist with cooling taking place aloft, a narrow window may develop
Monday evening in order for some surfaced-based convection to
materialize. Have thus expanded thunder chances during the evening
for much of eastern Kentucky, with stout wind fields aloft
possibly mixing down toward the surface with any stronger
showers/storms that develop. Overall instability looks to remain
rather weak and will likely lead to updrafts shearing apart given
the degree of wind aloft.

Rain showers will continue to taper off toward the east Monday
night as the upper low pushes toward the lower Great Lakes. Cold
air advection will be ongoing with temperatures falling through
the 40s and approaching the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 406 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2018

Backing flow in wake of the departing low will be interrupted by
another shortwave trough moving in from the northwest into
midweek. This will reinforce the recent cooldown with temperatures
only making it into the upper 30s/lower 40s through Wednesday. Rain/snow
showers will taper off toward the northeast Tuesday and Tuesday
night with upslope flow in place. Some question as to how much ice
will be present in the dendritic growth zone, but will keep what
slim precipitation chances exist as rain/snow at this time. May
have to watch for the potential of some drizzle/freezing drizzle
Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Building heights will take shape for the end of the week as upper
ridging sprawls east from the central CONUS, with highs rebounding
into the 50s by the end of the week. The next disturbance will
approach by late Friday into the weekend, bringing the next chance
of precipitation to eastern Kentucky complete with a cooldown by
late weekend into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018

The sites will remain VFR through this afternoon. An upper level
low will swing into the Midwest tonight, and a strong south to
southwest low level jet will develop ahead of this strengthening
system. This will bring the potential for LLWS the rest of the
night into the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, a cold front is
set to swing through the region today into tonight and this will
bring showers and thunderstorms across the region. The guidance
suggests this will at least produce MVFR conditions in the
showers and thunderstorms and in the wake of the cold front. This
doesn`t seem unreasonable with some sites likely having the
potential to see lower categories in heavier showers. The winds
at the surface will be gusty this afternoon and evening out of the
south and southwest at 30 to 35 mph at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
AVIATION...DJ


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