Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

The short term period will be active, with numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving across the area through around 2Z
this evening. A few of the storms this afternoon could produce
hail and strong wind gusts. The thunder chances should only last
through 23 or 0Z, as any remaining instability and best forcing
should be gone after that. General rain showers are expected
overnight, and these will taper off steadily through 6Z, and
should be gone by around 9Z. After a very brief reprieve, we
should see more showers moving into the area from the south and
southwest between 12 and 13Z on Monday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible again after 17Z on Monday. There
will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong
area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front
both move across the region. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will
also be on tap, as ample moisture will continue streaming into the
area from the south. Temperatures through out the period will
continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s,
and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

One of a string of upper Level waves that is moving into the Four
Corners region this morning based on the 00Z 500mb analysis will
bring a decent shot of showers and thunderstorms for the beginning
of the period Monday night. This wave will induce a surface low
across the Central Plains by tonight and eject into the Ohio Valley
Monday night. Models seem to be handling this well and feel more
confident in this versus much of the rest of the long term portion
of the forecast. Tuesday the system will continue to progress east
and trim POPs through the day from west to east. Models are in
decent agreement with the drying period from Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. While there is some amplitude differences with the
upper level ridge and height rises think there is enough to keep the
region dry. This also coincides with the NAEFS relative min in PWATs.

Beyond this models become quite convoluted and begin to diverge in
their respective solutions. The 00Z GFS wants to bring a more
positively to neutral tilted closed low east out of the Plains by
Thursday night and the 00Z ECMWF bring a more neutrally to slightly
negatively tilted trough with more of a northern stream influence by
the same time frame. This seems to be a phasing issue and these two
solutions will have implications on the surface features as well.
There also remains a reasonable amount of spread in the GFS ensemble
mean in regards to the upper level feature and spread in the
individual members with regards to low placement hints previous
statement. Even given some uncertainty the fact that both solutions
would bring a decent shot of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms
went with likely POPs from west to east from Late Thursday into
Friday evening. The blend wanted to go CAT POPs but felt like
uncertainty would be too much for that bullish of POPs. This system
pegged to move into the Mid Atlantic and therefore a period of
drying will resume Saturday. Overall the period will be met with
well above to above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across eastern
Kentucky through around 2Z tonight. A few thunderstorms may also
occur north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, possibly affecting JKL,
SYM, and SJS. VFR CIGs in general are expected, although MVFR
conditions may occur where an intense rain shower or any
thunderstorms directly impact one of the airports mentioned above.
BKN to OVC low and middle level cloud cover will plague the area
through the end of the TAF period, with VFR conditions expected
from 23Z through the end of the TAF period. Any chance for
thunder should be gone by 0Z. After that, numerous rain showers
should steadily taper off through around 6Z, with no rain expected
anywhere between roughly 7 and 13Z Monday. Winds will be
generally out of the south at around 10 mph today, with gusts of
up to 20 mph possible at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR



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