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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
510 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY
ACROSS ALL MARINE AND LAND BASED OBSERVING STATIONS WITH 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVER THE WATERS...AND 5 MPH WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...WHILE IT IS
STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE...PROXIMAL EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP PERSISTENT
WESTERLIES... ROBUSTLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY INHIBITED
CONDITIONS THROUGH 800 MB DUE TO MIDLEVEL DRY AIR.

.FORECAST...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP WESTERLIES SHOULD
TRANSITION TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING THE IDEAL
DIRECTION FOR REVERSE CUMULUS CLOUD LINES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. IN
THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW MODERATE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE
SHOWN THEIR ABILITY TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES EVEN WITHOUT
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY. EXPECT TO RE-EVALUATE THIS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND WITH A RETREATING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... EXPECT THAT LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER LAND AREAS. MARINE
LOCATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT
TRADE WIND PROFILE BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY DISINTEGRATES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY
BUILD PWAT VALUES BACK UP TO SEASONALLY HIGH VALUES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE KEYS...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED FOR THE TEXT PRODUCTS OR GRAPHICAL FORECASTS THIS UPDATE
CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE TROPICAL TRADES BY THIS WEEKEND. SEAS IN THE NEAR
TERM SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN AS CORRESPONDS TO THE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. WHILE BACKGROUND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1886...2.65 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 128
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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