Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 241511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1111 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Mean layer ridging centered near Bermuda stretches west across the
Bahamas, the Straits of Florida, and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The surface ridge is nearly aligned with the mean layer, although
its integrity is challenged as it crosses the Florida Peninsula
and its diurnal trough. This morning`s KKEY RAOB sampled increased
moisture, less inhibition, and around 3500 J/KG of ML CAPE. The
vertical coupling is disjointed near 780 mb. The atmosphere
appears to be recovering from the last several days of SAL
intrusions, corroborated by the available satellite derived
moisture products. The deep, maritime-tropical atmosphere is on
the mend.

Gentle southeast breezes prevail across the Florida Keys. Skies
are partly cloudy and temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s, on
their way to the lower 90s. A weak low level trough stretches
southwest from near Rebecca Shoal to extreme western Cuba. Convergence
along the northeastern flank of this trough has supported
scattered showers and thunderstorms between the middle and upper
Florida Keys. Most other locations have been rain free, lacking
the necessary boundaries for convective initiation. The
atmosphere is very unstable, with adequate moisture, and little to
no inhibition. There are a few dry layers lingering from 780 to
500 mb. Nevertheless, we will retain the inherited 30 percent rain
chances which is just above normal, and above today`s statistical
guidance. No changes currently needed or planned.


No current watches, warnings, or advisories. A high pressure cell
centered over the north Atlantic will extend a ridge axis
westward across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon through
Friday night. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail through the
forecast period.


VFR and gentle southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH
terminals through the afternoon. Compared to the last several
days, the 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled increased moisture throughout the
column. This trend will continue today and tonight based on loops
of upstream satellite derived moisture imagery. Rain chances at
both terminals appear to peak late tonight. Expect temporary
periods of MVFR CIGS, IFR VIS, and convective wind gusts near 25
knots within any shower impacts.




Data Collection......Fling

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