Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 020904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MADE THEIR WAY TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THESE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA FEW HOURS LATER. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED
AROUND 84F WITH GENERALLY EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT
TIMES.

.FORECAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS SHOWED THAT WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST WAS ADJUST DOWN A BIT TO REFLECT THIS NEW
MODEL SOLUTION. AT MID LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST (SAL)...STILL PRESENT OVER OUR AREA AND WILL
PERSIST TODAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS DROPPED TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEPT AT 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...WHICH STILL IS
OPTIMISTIC DUE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND CAP EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
FOR FRIDAY...THE VERTICAL CAP WILL DISSIPATE AND PWAT VALUES WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE BUT NOTHING IMPRESSIVE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WAS NOT CHANGED...WHERE WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXITS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING THE LOW 90S
EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. LATEST MARINE
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN BELOW 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWED SLOWER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FOR TODAY AND THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE CAUTION FOR SMALL
CRAFT WAS KEPT...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TODAY ACROSS THE STRAITS. THIS
LAST GFS RUN KEPT WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA...WITH THE HIGHEST FOR THE
PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS. IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES...FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 2500 FT. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL RUN 110- 120 DEG
8-12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY JULY 1 AT KEY WEST...THE DAILY HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 83F TIED THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST OBSERVED IN 2011.
FOR A DAY LIKE TODAY...JULY 2...IN KEY WEST...IN 1881...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96F WAS RECORDED...AND IN 1967...THE DAILY RECORD
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURES RECORD IN KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MM

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