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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A DEEP COLD CORE FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...CUBA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. A
75 TO 100 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE AT 250 MB AND
STREAMS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
THENCE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECTS THE
CENTER OF A NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT...A LATE WINTER LIKE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 995 MB SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE
GULF STREAM 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...TO SOUTHWARDS AND
BISECTING CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ADJOINING WATERS OWING TO HIGH CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY...10 TO 15 KNOTS OFF OF
THE UPPER KEYS...AND 15 KNOTS FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS WESTWARD.

.SHORT TERM...A SHORT REPRIEVE A COOLER...DRY WEATHER WITH NO
HUMIDITY AND NO CHANCE OF RAIN IN ON TAP FOR THE KEYS THRU AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY PULL EASTWARD...WITH MAINLY A ZONAL MID
AND UPPER PATTERN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS DURING SUNDAY...THEN ELONGATING INTO AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH
THE WEST OF NEXT WEEK. LOCAL WINDS TONIGHT WILL SURGE AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TO MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR 60. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL COME DOWN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE
STRONG EFFECTS OF HEAT TROUGHING ON THE MAINLAND. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH AND LO
TEMPERATURES RESTURNIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS LULLED A BIT GIVEN THE HEAT TROUGHING ON THE
MAINLAND...BUT GIVEN THE COOL DENSE AIR MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
ACROSS THE STILL WARM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE AFTER SUNSET.
HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL COME DOWN AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SURGE
A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT
CAUTION AT THE MOST ACROSS ALL OTHER WATERS...IF THAT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE OR ADVISORY CRITERIA NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 20000 SLOWLY RISING TO ABOVE
25000 FEET BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS
AT 030-035 WILL BE EVIDENT INTO THIS EVENING. NORTH CROSSWINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE FELT FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1994...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
MARCH 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 21 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  62  76  65  78 / 0 0 -  -
MARATHON  62  77  65  80 / 0 0 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE.
SMALL CRAFT IN EFFECT
FOR INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR GMZ033>035-044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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