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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290201
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
901 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
CLEAR SKIES....COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN REPORTING
STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE CULPRIT FOR THE
INCREASING WINDS IS THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

.FORECAST...
THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE THE MAJOR
FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE IN THE EAST TO
FRACTURE AND DRIVE THE SOUTHERN PORTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND DEEPEN QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT HEADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE THE HARBINGER OF A WIND
SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO CHANCE FOR RAIN DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A LARGE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH...RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY
WITH A QUICK BURST OF INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FEW/SCT SHALLOW CU BASED NEAR 3500 FEET AS THE
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSITION TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1957...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 85 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS 58 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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