Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 210851
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES...MAINLY ON THE WATERS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE PREVAILING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE A
STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HENCE...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED DIME POPS FOR
CELLS POSSIBLY MIGRATING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY NICKLE POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 80 AND 83 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO AREAS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BEING OVERLAID BY A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL FORCING...ISOLATED
CLIMO DIME POPS SEEM REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF SPELL OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING...A PREDOMINATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WIND WILL VARY
BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY SWELL PERHAPS REACHING UP
TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY EMANATE INTO THE NEARSHORE AND ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  70  81  70 / - 10 - -
MARATHON  81  71  83  71 / - 10 - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....AD

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