Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280757
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE RELAXING QUITE A BIT AS SHOWERS WANE TONIGHT. THE KBYX
RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 250 MILE SCAN MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH. SATELLITE INVESTIGATION AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS
NEARBY EXPOSE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEST OF CUBA WHICH...ALONG
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE OVER CUBA...MAY HAVE ADDED TO THE LIFTING OVER
THE KEYS AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT AND MAY BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH OF CUBA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFTING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA PLACING THE KEYS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE...PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT FLOW
FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA...WITH WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING A BETTER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SEASONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT SUNDAY BECOMING MODERATE
EASTERLIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT
TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE PUT A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT BOTH LOCATIONS BEGINNING AT 19Z TO
COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
EXTENDING TO 5000 FEET THROUGH SUNRISE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 28 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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