Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250237
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
937 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb) latest
available IR imagery overlaid with available model streamline
analysis as of 900 pm depict deep low amplitude cyclonic flow
across the Eastern CONUS, with deep low amplitude anticyclonic
flow across the Western CONUS. Closer to and over the Florida
Keys, latest water vapor imagery delineates very dry air in the
middle and upper levels underneath strong mid and upper
southwesterlies.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface-700 mb),
latest IR imagery overlaid with marine and land surface
observations and analysis as of 900 pm detail a cool front
extending southwest to across the Bahamas and into Central Cuba
from a 1007 mb low a few hundred miles east of Savannah. Back to
the west of that, a fairly weak cool 1020 mb surface high
pressure is over LA-MS-AL-GA. As a result, the 00Z evening
sounding at Key West illustrated a light to gentle northwest to
north flow from the surface only to about 925 mb, with increasing
flow backing from southwest to west above that, and significant
drying in the lower to mid troposphere with PWAT at only 1.22 and
falling.

.CURRENTLY...As of 900 pm, skies are mostly clear over the islands
and surrounding waters. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. C-man stations along the
Florida Reef are recording Northwest to North winds near 15 knots
along the Florida Reef, with island platforms showing 5 to 10 mph
over the Keys.

.SHORT TERM...Overnight, winds are up a few more knots than
expected along the Florida Reef. This could be due to a slight
increase in the MSLP gradient with the departing low east of
Georgia/the Carolinas, and some cooler drier air advecting down
the Peninsula is occurring. A last minuet adjustment may be made
to take temperatures down a few more degrees and adjust the winds.

&&

.MARINE...No headlines or advisories anticipated overnight and
Saturday. Good boating! Gentle to moderate northwest to north
flow will decrease a bit overnight, so gentle to moderate winds
should become light to gentle towards morning. Expect gentle to
moderate north winds tomorrow in the morning, coming down again in
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at both the KEY and KMTH island
terminals overnight. Just a few clouds will be found aoa
FL025-030.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/...Futterman
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman Upper
Air/Data Collection......DR

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