Area Forecast Discussion
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386
FXUS62 KKEY 221313
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
913 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FEW WEAK BOUNDARIES REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PARKED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A COL REGION OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND CUBA. WITHIN THIS COL WE FIND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXPECT CLOUD LINE
FORMATION TODAY. WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CLOUD LINE IS THE QUESTION FOR
THE DAY. THE KEYS IS ON THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
PROVIDING MUCH DRIER AIR...SHOWING UP ON THE MORNING SOUNDING DATA
ABOVE 850 MB. THIS DRY AIR MAY SUBDUE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CLOUD LINE...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIFT OUT OVERNIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WINDS WINDS AND TURN WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS
MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN INTENSITY AND GROW IN
GIRTH...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE LONG THROW OF THE
STRAITS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN A
PESSIMISTIC VIEW.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS RIDGE
BUILD IN...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASE TO
AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE PEAK OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CAUTIONARY
STATEMENT IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...WITH AN
ADVISORY POSSIBLE ON HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/23RD...EXPECT A CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN...BUT THE EXTENT OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED NEAR 025...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TURNING MOSTLY EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1940...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 68F WAS LAST RECORDED
IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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