Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011311
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
911 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SEVERAL FEATURES ARE PROMINENT IN THE SATELLITE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS
MORNING. FOREMOST IS A TROUGH SITTING OFF THE EAST COAST STATES AND
EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS...AND A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS. WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA MARINE STATIONS ARE
REPORTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WHILE THE ISLAND
TERMINALS INDICATE NEAR 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 79
DEGREES. THE MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING A MODEST PWAT WITH 1.6
INCHES IN THE COLUMN.

.FORECAST...
THE SOUNDING HAS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER THE BEGINS AROUND 525 MB AND
COULD BE INTERPRETED TO BE SATURATED WITH RESPECT TO ICE THROUGH THE
EL. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVING MOST
OF THE SKY OVER THE KEYS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP SUBDUE DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ASSIST IN THE INHIBITION OF
COVECTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
THIS REASON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TUTT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AND BROADENS.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ON THE
MAINLAND...AND WEAK UNDULATIONS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A BETTER
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ON MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON WE
WILL LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAISING RAIN CHANCES A BIT.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH PEAK AND LULLS IN THE WINDS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE
FIELD DISTURBING THE FLOW. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
KEYS THROUGH MID WEEK. NO ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE OBSERVED WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 900 AM TODAY...THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST WAS 85
DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT GO BELOW THAT BEFORE THE END OF
THE DAY...IT WILL TIED THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW SET BACK LAST TIME
IN 2014.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....KN
DATA COLLECTION...............CHESSER

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