Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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168
FXUS63 KLBF 082327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE THIN SLIVER OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING ON THE WRN NORTH DAKOTA
RADARS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TO NEAR KVTN BY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
INDICATED AS THIS HAPPENS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS EAST OF CHERRY
COUNTY. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST GUESS FOR TUESDAY IS THAT THIS SNOW...WHICH IS ANCHORED
ON A STATIONARY FRONT...WOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND THE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC



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