Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 041029
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
329 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOTHER NATURE WILL PROVIDE FIREWORKS OF HER OWN AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON THE 4TH
WILL BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. JUST A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS
LINGERING AROUND THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
VORT MAX GENERATING SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIALIZING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE
DAY. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN THAT RESPECT HOWEVER THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER THAT WILL
EFFECTIVELY WORK WITH THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA TO PULL IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. CONVECTION COULD GET GOING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ALL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL MOIST LAYER FROM LOVELOCK TO CARLIN WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE THIS LINE HOWEVER MOST CONVECTION WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE RIDGE...CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE...AGAIN WITH ALL
AREAS RECEIVING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A DEEP AND ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST
WILL COME ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALI. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE WITH
DRYING SW FLOW OVER THE SIERRA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCH REMAINS WEAKENED...WHILE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALI COAST INCREASES. PWATS AROUND
0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WILL BE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. STRONG STORM STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DIFFLUENCE SPREADS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND
MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY
BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH MUCH DRIER STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE SE THIRD
OF THE CWA AS FLOW INCREASES.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE NEAR SAN
FRAN AND TRAVERSING THROUGH NW NEVADA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
TREND ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS. IT WILL NEED WATCHING...AS THIS
COULD BE AN INTERESTING PATTERN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA ARE IN THE TAFS FOR KELY/KEKO. THIS IS TO CONVEY
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS. EXPECT TEMPOS TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE STORMS.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45KNOTS. BEST CHANCE FOR TS WILL BE KELY/KEKO. VCTS FOR
KWMC/KTPH. FOR KEKO...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94



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