Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 281745
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1045 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 256 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWEST AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 6500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING TO 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER SUMMITS IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY SO HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NV WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPANDED THE WINDS ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL
NV AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV WITH WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEING VERY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERALLY...THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BREAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE TROUGH WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET THE ENTIRE TIME SO NO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH BUT IT WILL HARDLY YIELD A BREAK FROM THE BUSY
PATTERN. THERE IS STILL SOME QPF MODELED TO INFUSE INTO THE RIDGE
PATTERN AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...AGAIN FAVORING
EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO UTAH. SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH OVER
EASTERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT. KWMC AND KTPH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. KEKO...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
KELY...INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY...AND AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS
RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE
CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER
ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL STREAMS MAY
LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK COULD
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE
MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT RISE DUE
TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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