Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 051004
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
ROUGHLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

A QUIET WEATHER REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT OVER THE PACIFIC WILL ENSURE A FAIRLY
STRONG NNW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DELAY THE WARMING SOMEWHAT OVER EASTERN
NEVADA HOWEVER AREAS FROM ABOUT CARLIN WESTWARD WILL SEE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 50S FRIDAY TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

SPLENDID EARLY SPRING WEATHER FOR NEVADA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FOR FEW CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS AND
ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP. EXPECT LOWER 60S TO PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TUESDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND THE WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING 70 DEGREES. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY, AND A SW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP WITH MIXING AND
ENCOURAGE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD HIGH AT ELKO FOR
TUESDAY MARCH 10TH IS 69 SET IN 1989, AND CURRENTLY FORECASTING 66.

NEVADA WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY THE 13TH, BUT THE DETAILS ARE MURKY,
AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEDNESDAY, AS PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES ON THE SW FLOW. 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION IS MUCH SLOWER, DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACKING THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TOWARD NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEK, AND WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW BY FRIDAY THE 13TH.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS. GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT HAVE THE STORM
DEPICTED BY 00Z ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR NOW,
EDGED GRIDS TOWARD THE WETTER, DEEPER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99


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