Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 220912
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
212 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SUNSHINE RETURNS FRIDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY RAIN...SNOW...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CIRRUS HAS THINNED ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO KICK IN, WITH MANY VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 20S, BUT
THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

DRY AND MILDER TODAY, BUT CLOUDY BY THIS AFTERNOON. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LONG STRETCH OF CIRRUS STREAMING OUT
INTO THE PACIFIC, AND THIS WILL BE SPREADING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST NORTH
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS NYE COUNTY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION FOR THE VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE IN NEVADA, THE
BETTER VIEW YOU WILL HAVE. ACROSS NW NEVADA, MOIST PACIFIC JET
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESS INTO NEVADA WILL BE VERY LIMITED, STAYING
EVEN NORTH OF WINNEMUCCA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SHOW PRONOUNCED WARMING TODAY AND THURSDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND
A SW BREEZE HELPS WITH MIXING EACH AFTERNOON. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY, WITH LOWER 70S RETURNING THURSDAY. SW
WINDS WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SW U.S. AMPLIFIES, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA, WHILE A
STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL FORCE THE PACIFIC JET TO RETREAT NORTH OF
NEVADA, TAKING THE CLOUDS AND ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. NEAR
FULL SUN EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WARM AIR FLOWING IN
FROM THE SOUTH WILL SEND MAX TEMPS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN, WITH MID 70S COMMON. WARMEST VALLEYS WILL CRACK 80
DEGREES FRIDAY, IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER.  BT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
PRETTY WELL IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG HAUL...WITH
DIFFERENCES COMING QUICKLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THICKNESSES FALL BUT DON`T SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...DESCENDING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO SOME VALLEY FLOORS. SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ABOVE
7000 FEET MSL BUT BIGGEST ACCUMS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST TERRAIN
SUCH AS IN THE RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS AND JARBIDGE WILDERNESS...
POSSIBLY THE INDEPENDENCE AND SANTA ROSA RANGES. BEST TIME PERIOD
WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE EURO IS THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL ON THIS EVENT WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY A BIT PATHETIC.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND ORIENTATION
THE KEYS AND THERE ARE ENOUGH SMALLER DIFFERENCES THAT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH AS IT COULD BE...BUT IS GROWING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S...APART FROM
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NORTHERN NYE WHERE SOME HIGHS CLOSE TO 60S COULD
STILL HAPPEN. SYSTEM WANES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WHEN ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION BUT...AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WANES TOO AS MODELS START TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES. TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...60S BY TUESDAY. BB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NOTE...MAJOR CHANGE IN WEATHER
ON THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND RAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT KWMC AND
POSSIBLY MIXED RAIN/SNOW AT KEKO. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ALOFT AND OVER
RIDGE LINES...GENERALLY FROM THE RUBIES NORTH.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/98/98







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