Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 282100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN HAS ARRIVED...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK INSTABILITY YIELDING
A FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA.
SUBSIDENT NW FLOW IS TAKING OVER BEHIND THE DEPARTING WYOMING
TROUGH, AND EXPECT ALL SHOWERS TO END AND CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE MAY NORMALS UNDER
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. VALLEYS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
70S, WITH THE WARMEST LOCALES IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SE ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SE OF A MANHATTAN-EUREKA-CURRIE
LINE. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

SATURDAY...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE SUBSTANTIALLY
SATURDAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 584 DM AT ELKO BY 5 PM. EXPECT
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR, WITH LOW TO MID 80S
COMMON. THE WARMEST LOCALES, SUCH AS BATTLE MOUNTAIN, AND THE
LOWEST VALLEYS OF NYE COUNTY, WILL FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURE AT ELKO SO FAR IN 2015 IS 81 DEGREES. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO
COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FUELED BY THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES.
FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF QPF PLACEMENT FOR THE POP GRIDS, BUT AGAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. MOST OF US SIMPLY MUCH WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER. DID UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY, TO ACCOUNT FOR WET SOILS AND EVAPORATION OF
STANDING WATER.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ALL MODELS AGREEMENT
ON GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OVER WESTERN US...HOWEVER DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE PATTERN SO LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER
BUT HIGHER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A DEGREE OR TWO. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE ONLY THING TO NOTE IS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT
OF A WARMER LAYER ABOVE 500MB SO CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN
BUT STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND MODELS MAY GET BETTER HANDLE ON UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BREEZY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH DUE TO STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO WITH
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
POPS AND SKY BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVES DID NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH ABOUT 30 PERCENT CHANCE AT KELY AND ABOUT 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE AT KEKO...OTHERWISE OTHER TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/90/90



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