Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 292221
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
321 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COOL FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES THRU THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PUSH A DRY COOL FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY RESULTING
IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH 7 TO 10 DEGREES OF
COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY 1 TO 3 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NV.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
AND OVER FAR EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS
EASTERN NV WITH A FEW 60S OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MOSTLY LOW TO
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WESTERLY BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP INTO THE 80S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA.
GFS MODEL KEEPS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA DRY THROUGH DAY
7...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY. SINCE THE ECMWF
MODEL IS PERFORMING BETTER WITH THUNDERSTORM PLACEMENT AT THIS
TIME...LEANED FORECAST FOR THURSDAY TOWARD THE EC WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY.
BOTH EC AND GFS HAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA FRIDAY...HOWEVER
EXPECT SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEVADA.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME HIGH BASED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AND PERIODS OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTH OF
KEKO...INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NV ON
SATURDAY BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PCT FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
ZONES 455 AND 457 WHERE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 469 AND
470 AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF 455.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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