Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 010920 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE FULL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTENING UP PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, THEN A
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. BB

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WELL ADVERTISED
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GUIDANCE RUN. THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER MODEL TO LIFT THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA BEFORE PIVOTING INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THIS MODEL RUN THE GFS HINTS AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LAGGING
BEHIND FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO A POSITION OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE
DOWNWARD SWING OF TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH SOME 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. IN
FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALMOST NO CHANGE IN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE
NORTH WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN FIRE ZONES 457,467,AND 468 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...STRONG COOLING TREND.
MANY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL HIT THE 30S BY SUNDAY.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER
AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

98/89/89/98



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