Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS65 KLKN 141122
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE PICS AND RADAR SHOW
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT FOR DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH. DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH
ENERGY BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. GFS MODEL DEPICTS
THE THROUGH AXIS DROPPING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL. THIS DIFFERENCE RESULTS IN THE GFS MODEL BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
HOLDS OFF ON PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CWA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SLIGHT TIMING
AND TRACK DISCREPANCIES PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER IN GENERAL
EXPECTING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA BY MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...HOWEVER ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE VALLEY LOCATIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA MAY SEE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS INTO UTAH THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF
DRYING PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
CLIPPING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE CLIPPING SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF NEVADA.
BOTH MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WITH
THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...LOWERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS IN
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AT KWMC OR
KEKO THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
AS ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. DRY AT KTPH
TODAY...HOWEVER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.