Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 242137
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
237 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY
WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
...THE SANTA ROSAS AND THE INDEPENDENCE MOUNTAINS...AND THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE LATEST VIS
SATELLITE...A MATURE PACIFIC CYCLONE UPSTREAM FROM THE LKN CWA. NE
NV IS STILL UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT ALL MODELS POINT TO A TASTE
OF WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...COMPLETE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MT
SNOW. THE V COMPONENT ANOMALIES ON THE NAEFS WERE 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AT 500 MB FROM ELY TO DENIO WAS +12 DAM...WHICH WAS VERY
CONSITSENT BETWEEN MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND EVENT FOR
SATURDAY...MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD ELKO COUNTY TO THE NPW
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY..AS THE U-COMPONENT ANOMALIES START
TO SPIKE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FIRST GUESS...FROUDE NUMBERS
SUPPORT A LEE SIDE OF THE RUBIES EVENT. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
DETAILS. QPF-WISE...THE PWS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE
DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN NV/ SE OR/ SW ID
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS STRONGEST WITH
THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IS LIMITED SO NO POPS...HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EXTREME NE NV. ON TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
NEVADA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA. RIDGE
FLATTENS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN NV. GFS HAS A BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE PRECIP IN IDAHO.
WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODELS...HAVE JUST MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA...AND KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. SAME REASONING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT PUSHED
THE LINE JUST NORTH OF I80. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE
REBUILDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT TURBULENCE.
VFR CIGS/VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KELY/KTPH...AND AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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