Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 212212
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
312 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers and thunderstorms are expected over
central Nevada this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm chances
increase Tuesday afternoon and expand northward continuing into Wednesday.
Hotter and drier weather return by the end of the week with
above normal temperatures expected.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday

Main Concern or Impact: Potential strong t-storms Wednesday and isolated
flash flood concerns tomorrow...but probabilities of ocurrence for
both of these is low.

Brief synoptic overview:
A closed 500mb upper level low off the southern CA coast continues
to spin, creating southerly flow aloft. This flow pushes PWATs
into .60 to .90 range at times, which is above average for this
time of the year. The current frontal boundary draped over central
Nevada should push northward today through tomorrow, ending up in
southern ID by Wednesday morning. In addition, a 500mb trof
associated with the low should also lift northward through the
area, ending up near the ID/NV border sometime Tuesday night. By
Wednesday, the flow aloft begins to change directions due to an
upstream 500mb trof impacting the Pacific NW.

Changes to Previous Forecast:
Increased POPs (numbers and coverage) Tuesday
night as soundings all indicate overnight convection. Also,
increase POPs in far NE Nevada Wednesday afternoon, and reduce it
elsewhere. Reduce & delay POPs slightly tomorrow as cloud cover
could limit instability.

Forecast Confidence: Below average on convection chances or
placement of these due to cloud cover.

Sensible Weather/Impacts:

Precip
T-storms and shower chances expected through entire period.  Best
chances remain Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.
Showers more prevalent Tuesday and than thunder due to cloud cover


Winds
Other than gusty outflow winds from t-storms no issues.

Temps
90s this afternoon...cooling to near average (80s) tomorrow and
Wednesday


.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday.

Light showers ending over most of northern and eastern NV
Wednesday night, as mid-levels dry out ahead of a broad trough
that will drop down over the Pacific NW on Thursday. A 60kt H3 jet
associated with the trough will pass over northern NV on
Thursday, resulting in weak to moderate shear and CAPE values
across far northern Elko and Humboldt Counties Thursday afternoon
and early evening, and with that a chance for a few moderately
strong storms. Some clouds should build up Thursday afternoon
across Central NV, however dry conditions are expected in that
area.

Higher pressure builds up from the southwest on Friday, with
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening confined to the
NE corner of NV, which will be generally Elko County and small
portions of neighboring counties. High pressure continues to build
in over most of the western U.S. on Saturday, however moisture
under the building ridge in combination with weak instability
should result in some afternoon cumulus build-ups across eastern
Elko and White Pine Counties. Very few thunderstorms are expected
on Saturday although high temperatures will be on the rise. Ridge
remains over the western U.S. on Sunday with continued warming.
At this time there doesn`t look to be enough instability under the
ridge Sunday for any TS, however afternoon cumulus clouds should
redevelop.


&&

.AVIATION...Mid-level moisture pushing up from southern NV will
result in increased clouds across central NV later today and
tonight, with a slight chance of -TSRA through the early evening.
Mostly clear across northern NV through this evening. Mid-level
moisture continues to drift north tonight into Tuesday. By Tuesday
afternoon the best chances for -TSRA will be over northern NV, as
drier air begins to push up into central NV.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Small dry thunderstorm probabilities exist over 457 and 455 today;
however believe majority of storms won`t produce a lot of cloud to
ground lightning. Overnight cloud cover could delay thunderstorms
tomorrow until late afternoon or evening over 454 and 455. These
should be at least a mixture of wet and dry, but once again
coverage is in question. Further north (467,468,469,& 470),
isolated thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday but expect better
coverage/probabilities Tuesday night. The biggest concern is
Wednesday as the drying aloft should yield more dry than wet
thunderstorms across 469 and 470. Coverage is still concern but
decided to go ahead with a watch that matches surrounding offices.
All other zones should see some dry thunderstorms as well, but
coverage will be isolated.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for Eastern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko
County.

&&

$$

85/96/85/85


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