Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 291017
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS
SHOWING ON RADAR. THE AXIS OF THE INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 650 MILES DUE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER
THERE IS A 250 MILE WIDE SWATH OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH...STREAMING OVER LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING...WHERE
THE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S. COMPARE THAT TO A DEWPOINT OF 25
DEGREES AT KELY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CHANCES
INCREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SCOOPS UP SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE THE NORM. THEN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TO PUSH THE TROUGH SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS. THE SNAKE RANGE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
BENEFIT BEST FOR SNOW WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE DRY AND MILD WINTER CONTINUES WELL INTO FEBRUARY...

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO NEVADA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS CONTROL ON SUPER
BOWL SUNDAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUN, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT RIDGE TO FLATTEN A BIT MONDAY, WITH
EXTRA CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY, SO RETAINED VERY LOW POPS WITH LITTLE
QPF AND NO IMPACTS. MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS CONTINUES MONDAY, ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
GROUNDHOG DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA ONCE AGAIN. REDUCED OR
ELIMINATED WHAT LITTLE POPS WE HAD, AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 50S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK AMPLIFICATION ACROSS NEVADA,
WITH NEAR- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 ONCE AGAIN. THE WINTER
THAT NEVER WAS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z. MID-CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS NEVADA TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH. FROM KTPH TO KELY, FROM 00-12Z FRI, CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER
TO 4-5K FT, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. -SHRA EXPECTED FROM KELY
TO KTPH 00-12Z FRI. KWMC AND KEKO WILL REMAIN DRY. AT KELY, EXPECT
-RA AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99



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