Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 252210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
210 PM PST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The next winter disturbance will bring more light
snow showers or flurries today with a stronger system expected to
affect the state late Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions along
with warming temperatures move into the region for the middle of
next week.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Upper trough is draped
across the state from well offshore Bay Area across northern
Nevada to southeast Idaho. Weak cold front has crossed the
northern half of Nevada and is exiting the forecast area to the
south. The airmass behind the front is not much colder than was
already in place, but is below freezing, hence snow levels will
remain at valley floors. A very week inter-trough ridge will cross
the region overnight tonight and into Sunday morning. The weak
batch of flurries and light snow now will reduce temporarily until
the next weak plume of moisture moves in with the quasi-zonal flow
in advance of the next trough. This trough briefly closes off but
open into a wave over the interior northwest and the trough axis
crosses the state between Monday morning and afternoon. There is
enough moisture and instablity to produce several inches of snow
in the higher mountain over the forecast area Sunday night through
Monday night and a smidgen to a few inches in valleys, over most
of northern, central, and eastern Nevada.

At this time the largest accumulations look, according to model
output, to be in Jarbidge, Rubies/East Humboldts, and the higher
terrain of White Pine County. Will issue a Hazardous Weather
Outlook for this time period. Do not believe at this time that an
advisory will be necessary.

Temps remain cold (normal for the season) and winds pick up a bit
in the afternoons for uncomfortable wind chills.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. The long term
period starts out unsettled as a low pressure system exits. Mild
ridging is in store for most of the week and a drier regime is

Tuesday evening. A broad trough of low pressure will be
moving east out over the central CONUS. Showers will be tapering
off quickly.

Midnight Tuesday through Friday night. This should be a dry
period. The models are a little more convincing that enough
ridging will occur to ward off any chance of precipitation. High
temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s Wednesday,
and from the mid 30s to the mid 40s Thursday and Friday. Low
temperatures will range from the single digits to the teens
Tuesday night and Wednesday night, warming into the 20s Thursday
night and Friday night.

Saturday. A low pressure system will move north of the state, but
brush northern Nevada. There will be a small chance for
precipitation, mainly north of Interstate 80. High temperatures
will be in the 40s.


.AVIATION...VCSH to light snow off and on through 00Z Monday.
Winds tend to less than 10 knots. Ceilings and visibility
generally VFR but in -SN will drop to MVFR at times. Outlook:
Another storm system Monday will produce a few inches of snow in
the valleys and several in the mountains.

Mountain obscuration at all sites through through mid week.


.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River reach continues to flood.
The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is near Moderate Flood
Stage and appears to be in decline. However gauge HBMN2 is
producing some erroneous readings of late and will need to be
adjusted. The Humboldt River at Comus is in moderate flood and
seems to be leveling off around 10.7 feet. The morning report from
Winnemucca is that the water is still rising per the staff gauge
reading along the Melarkey Street Bridge...19 feet, 2 inches, a
rise of 3 inches from the Friday report. Thus, minor to moderate
flooding can be expected all along the reach from Battle Mountain
to the Humboldt/Pershing County line for another couple days at
least. The gauge below Wild Horse Dam is icing up and readings are
not reliable at this time. No other issues to report.




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