Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 010242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1042 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A mostly clear sky exists over central KY and south-central IN late
this evening. However, some mid and high-level clouds are moving and
developing eastward to our west, so our sky overnight generally
should be partly cloudy. Latest NWS Doppler radar has shown a couple
small showers pop up and down over far western KY. Latest HRRR tries
to develop a few more showers overnight in parts of middle TN into
our southwest forecast area, although this appears overdone. Quick
look at 00z NAM suggests some mid clouds moving over our area
overnight, and cannot rule out a light shower or sprinkle from
such clouds. However, will maintain a dry forecast over our western
forecast area for now as this appears to be of little if any
consequence. Ongoing temperatures are reasonable with very minor
changes made to overnight lows.

Air mass should destabilize somewhat on Wednesday, with a few pop
up showers and thunderstorms possible by late afternoon and
early evening across the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Partly cloudy skies were noted across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the mid 80s and are expected to reach their
daily maximum peaks in the next hour or so.  Most likely highs will
range from 83-88 and then cool into the upper 70s to the low 80s
this evening.  Overnight, partly cloudy conditions are expected with
overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.

For Wednesday, broad surface trough will push in from the northwest.
We`ll get a stronger SW moisture flow into the region which should
result in dewpoints rising back up...especially west of the I-65
corridor.  Latest local and national high res models suggests some
scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon mainly
across west KY and into southwest IN.  This activity looks to weaken
after sunset with only some isolated showers/storms possible into
Wed night.  Highs Wednesday will top out in the 84-89 degree range
with overnight lows back into the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A relatively broad trough axis will continue to drop southeast into
the region on Thursday and then stall out across the region.
Multiple mid-level waves will move northeast across the region
resulting in episodic convection.  Today`s Euro was a bit more
aggressive with precipitation coverage Thursday through Saturday and
overall is much wetter than the other global models.  Overall, have
trended PoPs up through this period.

A sharp upper trough and associated cold front will drop into the
region during the day on Sunday resulting in another round of shower
and storms.  A deep upper trough will remain in place across the
region on Monday and Tuesday with a few secondary waves rotating
through.  Colder temps aloft should result in afternoon instability
developing resulting in scattered convection.  Much cooler weather
is on tap and will arrive in the Mon/Tue time frame.

Highs Thursday and Friday will be dependent on clouds and
precipitation.  For now have gone with lower-mid 80s and overnight
lows in the lower-mid 60s.  Upper 70s look likely for Saturday and
Sunday with mid-upper 70s likely for Monday/Tuesday.  Overnight lows
in the 60s will be common, but mid-upper 50s will be possible Monday
night and Tuesday morning.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period at SDF,
LEX, and BWG. The exception could be BWG where vsbys early Wednesday
morning (about 09-12z) could locally drop to MVFR in light fog/haze
from time to time. Scattered cumulus will develop Wednesday along
with some mid to high-level convective debris clouds at times.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible near SDF and BWG in the
late afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Winds tonight will become
light southeast (calm at BWG), then southwest 5-10 kts Wednesday


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
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