Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 240819
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
318 AM CDT

Through tonight...

Feeling much more confident with the today`s forecast versus the
past couple of days due to clearer forcing for storms.  First things
first, issued a heat advisory for the I-88 corridor south including
northwest Indiana.  Heat indices will reach 105-110 degrees quickly.

On to convection...a few showers are visible over southern LaSalle
and Grundy counties this morning with the rain from the evening MCS
shifting east into central and eastern Indiana.  Additional
convection over eastern WI and along the MN/WI state line will
remain north of us. The latest CR-HRRR suggests that the convection
over MN will build south and pass over the IL/WI state line this
morning. I am not buying this progression because storms are not
building south and storm movement is due east.

Thinking the atmosphere will recover this morning with no precip
expected.  Meanwhile the cold front currently stretching from
eastern MN through IA will shift east reaching the Rockford area
early this afternoon.  The atmosphere should recover enough for
storms to sprout along the cold front.  Guidance features CAPE
around 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear of 20-30 kt, and PWATs around 2
inches.  Steering flow is a bit faster today around 30 kt. Therefore
expecting a scattered storms to develop ahead of the cold front with
a more solid line of storms along the front. Hail and damaging winds
are the main severe threats along with localized heavy rain.  SPC
mentions that supercells may be possible in their discussion, but
thinking supercells will be more common to our north in WI where the
shear is greater.  The line of storms shifts southeast through
Monday morning.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
318 AM CDT

Monday through Saturday...

Any lingering storms dissipate early Monday morning as cooler and
drier air spread across the region along with high pressure.  Have a
dry forecast through Tuesday with high temps only in the mid 80s.
Cooler conditions are expected along the lake.

An upper level wave passes over southern WI and northern IL
Wednesday. Thinking the majority of storms will form over WI, so
only have a low chance of storms along the IL/WI state line.  A
stronger upper level wave arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning bringing showers and storms to the entire region.  The
storms should also limit warming Thursday leading to highs only in
the low 80s.

The pattern remains busy through the end of the week with chances of
showers and storms. However, the good news is the cooler temps with
highs in the low 80s continue through late this week as well.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

1255 am...Showers with embedded thunder will slowly drift
southeast over the coming hours, with the bulk of the
precipitation falling out of a mid level cloud deck. While
confidence is medium, feel that the showers and storms over
Wisconsin will drift more east of south and will move over Lake
Michigan. We have some instability available which may allow some
showers to fester through the night, but there is some capping in
wake of the evening storms and therefore feel that a dry overnight
forecast would be the rule, or maybe some VCSH. Some guidance does
attempt to shift some of the activity southeast across the
terminals this morning, but confidence in this scenario is low.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
into Sunday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Timing has
differed from various models but trend now appears later and
maintained vicinity mention for now.

Winds should shift back from the current southeasterly to
southerly overnight with gusty south/southwest winds expected
today, shifting to northwest later tonight.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
252 AM CDT

Southwest winds will increase today to around 25 kt ahead of low
pressure that will move east through northern Ontario today. A
cold front behind this low will move south across the lake tonight
with modest northwest winds behind it. High pressure will take
control through mid week with fairly benign conditions across Lake
Michigan. Thunderstorm chances exist today and then return later
in the week.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-
     ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...11 AM
     Sunday TO 7 PM Sunday.

IN...Heat Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...11 AM
     Sunday TO 7 PM Sunday.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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