Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 011746 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1044 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUE)...WHAT WE GET TODAY IS WHAT WE`LL
SEE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE OUR UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE IF ANY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 1300 FT OR SO MARINE LAYER
HAS BROUGHT THE STRATUS INTO MOST OF THE NEARBY VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH
THE SBA SOUTH COAST HAS HAD TROUBLE FILLING IN SO FAR. THIS WILL ALL
BURN OFF ON A SIMILAR SCHEDULE TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS FULLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE NOT EVEN
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CUMULUS. MODELS INDICATING THE MARINE
LAYER WILL SHRINK A BIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MAY NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS THIS MORNING AND MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOME MOUNTAIN
AREAS. WIND-WISE WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY EVENING SUNDOWNER WINDS
SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

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