Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 232058 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DECREASING WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER SUNNY SKIES
ARE ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
WINDS IN GENERAL ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BREEZY IN SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL AND SOUTH COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TONIGHT TO PRIMARILY THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY COAST THOUGH MAY INCH UP TO ALONG THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AS
WELL.  THE COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY AND A SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  BY LATE ON
THURSDAY THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD.  SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN MOST COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY
AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY LIFT INTO LOW
CLOUDS AS THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVES IN AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A BIT WARMER AS A RESULT.

THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS DOWN TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ALONG OR SLIGHTLY ON SHORE AND SWINGS EASTWARD OVER VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES.  THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THIS SYSTEM
IN GENERAL BUT THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR SERVICE AREA AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND FOR STRONG WINDS.  OUR FOUR COUNTY AREA HAS A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY BUT POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.  IF THE LOW
CENTER SWINGS EAST A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED
THERE IS A CHANCE OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION IN THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS.  THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO STALL A BIT AS THE LOW SWINGS
THROUGH AND THIS WOULD KEEP THE LIGHT AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY GIVE WAY
TO A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND OFFSHORE WINDS.  BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION PUSH TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AND MOST VALLEYS LOCATIONS WILL HAVE READINGS IN THE MID
90S.  THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
PREVAILING ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA DUE TO WEAK INVERSION AND MIXING
OF WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE LAX COASTAL PLAIN (AROUND KLGB). EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE OR A LITTLE LATER...WITH VFR CONDS FOR ALL
AREAS EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF IFR CIGS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z. FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN/TIMING OF
IFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE THRU 18Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...23/915 AM PDT...

NORTHWEST GALES CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF
28 TO 32 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS FROM SAN NICOLAS ISLAND UP TO CAPE SAN
MARTIN AT 9 AM PDT...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FEET AT 12 SECONDS. THE GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AT SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INNER WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS ACROSS PZZ655 WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...UP
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE...EXPECT HAZARDOUS SEAS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
COASTAL WATERS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MODELS
ARE NOW DEPICTING STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
INCLUDING THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
LARGE SHORT PERIOD SEAS.

IN ADDITION TO STEEP NORTHWEST SEAS...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL
BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET WILL BRING RISING SURF TO MOST OF THE
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA SURF ZONE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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