Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 011252
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
333 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP OR PUSH INTO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE...AND THERE WERE SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. SOME GUSTY WINDS
COULD PUSH INTO THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL CA TODAY
WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED MON AND TUE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF L.A. COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...AND POSSIBLY THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY MON NIGHT/TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CHANGE RATHER
LITTLE THROUGH TUE...BUT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS DO TURN ONSHORE...AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON TUE. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES
IN MAX TEMPS MON AND TUE FROM THOSE OBSERVED TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH WILL ACTUALLY AMPLIFY A BIT
OVER THE REGION WED AND THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
PACIFIC. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND ANY NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AND THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY EDGE
UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA ON FRI...AND WHILE MOST
OF ITS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE REGION...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SAT N OF PT CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS. HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...SO THERE COULD BE A BIT OF WARMING...BUT
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO TEMPER AND
WARMING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN SAT...FORCING ANY
MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LIKELY BRINGING A FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING TO MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

1/1130Z

AT 920Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX BUT THERE WAS A SFC BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 1000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHC OF MVFR
CIGS AFT 10Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

1/300 AM

WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER WATERS. A LARGE NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD
FOR SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

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