Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 010523
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DOWN TO LOWER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE EXITING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON ITS HEELS ALLOWING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT...AND WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...DOWN TO -28 DEG C LATER TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WHICH
WERE NEAR 5000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR 4000
FEET TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT LOWER LEVELS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON SUN
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF OF SBA COUNTY ON MON THEN MOVE SE MON NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING INTO NRN BAJA ON TUE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DECENT CAPE
(200-600 J/KG) AND CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPS AT 500 MB WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THRU
SUN EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FOUR COUNTY AREA WILL BE ON SUN AFTERNOON...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MON INTO MON EVENING AS THE
SECOND UPPER LOW PASSES BY THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE 0.15 TO 0.30 INCH FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND UP
TO 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU MON TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET. THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500
FEET...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 18
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VENTURA COUNTY. MUCH LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD FALL ON MON. WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA MTNS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXWSWLOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...BUT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO ALL AREAS THRU THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN THRU
TUE...ALTHO THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0025Z.

AT 2355Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KPMD AND KWJF THRU THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. A
SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST TUE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

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