Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 011034
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE COAST LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF L.A.
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND BY SUN UP MARINE STRATUS WILL
COVER ALL THE COASTS AND THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ VLYS. LOOK
FOR GOOD CLEARING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT THE CENTRAL COAST
BEACHES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING. THERE WAS A VERY WEAK TSTM
OVER THE ERN MTNS YDY AND CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ARE JUST A SKOSH
BETTER TODAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE L.A. MTNS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YDY SAVE FOR THE SNS VLY WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES LESS THAN YDYS VERY WARM READINGS. THE
BETTER MARINE LAYER WILL COOL THE BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

STRATUS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND HGTS ARE UNCHANGED.

THE MONSOON FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL TURN
PARTLY CLOUDY (MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER ERN L.A. COUNTY) A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LA MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE
VLY. BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL PRODUCE A NOTICEABLE
DROP IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT IT WILL ALSO PUSH UP HUMIDITIES SO
IT WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE.

THE MARINE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE WIPED OUT SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIG NEWS IS THE LARGE EASTERLY WAVE THAT ROTATES
THROUGH LA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF LA COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE MONSOON CONTINUES SUNDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL MOVE WEST INTO
THE VTA MTNS. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS A LITTLE
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS
L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
ON MONDAY THE RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE EAST AND A SLIGHT TROF MOVES
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SWITCH THE MONSOON OFF AND
REPLACE IT WITH DRY SW FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THEN IT LOOKS PRETTY DULL ALL NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK TROF TO THE WEST
WILL INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER. MAX TEMPS INLAND WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR AUGUST MARINE LAYER
WILL KEEP THE COASTS AND VLYS A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0620Z

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR CONDS ALONG
CENTRAL COAST 00Z TAFS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR CIGS COULD REACH
KPRB BY 11Z THIS MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CIGS TO SCOUR OUT
+/- 1 HOURS FROM TAF. SIMILAR TIMING FOR STRATUS ONCE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR CIGS.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH COASTAL TAFS. EXPECT LOW
MVFR TAFS FOR LA COASTAL TAFS I.E. KLAX/KLGB...WITH IFR CONDS FOR
KOXR/KCMA/KSBA. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE INCONSISTENT IN
RESPECT TO CLEARING PERIODICALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MODELS INDICATE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH LOW MVFR CIGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...INCREASING  MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION MIGHT CAUSE LOW CLOUD
REGIME TO BECOME CHAOTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF...HI IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z...AND SCOUR OUT BETWEEN
15Z-17Z TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH RETURN TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THROUGH THIS EVE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN
12Z-15Z TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT JUST MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL. 20 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z
SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

31/900 PM PDT

LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PZZ655 THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED IN THAT PORTION OF THE WATERS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIOD
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER PZZ673-676...WITH
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SPEEDS OVER PZZ670. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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