Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 091034
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
234 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND RECORD HEAT. A FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI)

AN UPPER RIDGE OF SOME SORT WILL COVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 7 MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KDAG COMBINES WITH 585 HGTS. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE 80S AND THERE WILL BE
MORE THAN A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. SRN CA WILL BE THE
WARMEST AREA IN THE NATION AGAIN TODAY. A NUMBER OF RECORDS WILL
LIKELY FALL TODAY INCLUDING DOWNTOWN L.A. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE NE
CANYONS OF LA AND VTA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISROY PERHAPS GOES OUT A LITTLE TOO FAR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY WELL BE BROUGHT DOWN AT NOON.

LITTLE TO NO EXCITEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEAK. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE EACH DAY AS WILL THE RIDGE. THE MORNING
CANYON WINDS WILL BE WEAK EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL DROP 2 TO 3
DEGREES EACH DAY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL FALL FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.

DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR AND VERY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL BE GOBS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT IN AREAS WITHOUT WINDS. THESE WIND
FREE AREAS WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS EACH MORNING.


.LONG TERM...(SAT-MON)

A WEAK DRY INSIDE SLIDER KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE SATURDAY BUT WILL
DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ACCELERATE
THE COOLING TREND (MAX TEMPS "ONLY" 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)

THE RIDGE REFORMS SUNDAY AND SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ABOUT A 2 DEGREE BUMP UP IN TEMPS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS MONDAY.

IN THE FOR WHAT ITS WORTH (NOT MUCH) DEPARTMENT BOTH EC AND GFS
BRING A MEDIUM RAIN SYSTEM TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE FORECAST PATTERN MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN
SHIFT LATE THIS MONTH AND IN EARLY MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...

09/1100Z

AT 1045Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AND NO NOTABLE
INVERSION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CAVU 12Z TAF. EAST WINDS LESS THAN
7 KT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z THRU 21Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CAVU 12Z TAF.

&&

&&

.MARINE...

09/200 AM

HAVE ADDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS...MAINLY
BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU AND OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING UNTIL NOON TODAY. EXPECT GUSTY NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT..WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TOWARDS AVALON HARBOR AS WELL...BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
FOR THE INNER WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY. NO OTHER
ISSUES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.



&&

.FIRE...

08/200 PM

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...AS RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR VENTURA COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY (EXCEPT FOR
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) THROUGH 600 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY. SO...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK THROUGH TUESDAY...AND EVEN A CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SECTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
      PST TODAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
FIRE...SUKUP
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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