Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 201116 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BRING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO L.A. COUNTY TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE L.A. AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 60 MILES MAKES. ALL OF L.A. COUNTIES COASTS AND
VLYS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL SLOPES ARE COVERED WITH LOW CLOUDS. 60
MILES SOUTH AT THE NW TIP OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY A PERSISTENT LINE OF
TSTMS IS RUMBLING ON. THE MARINE LAYER IS 3000 FEET DEEP BUT THE
CLOUD LAYER IS PRETTY THIN AND EXPECT DECENT CLEARING TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE BEACHES WILL SEE SLOW TO NO
CLEARING. THE COASTAL/VALLEY FORECAST SAYS MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THIS DEEP A MARINE LAYER MIGHT PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
STRATA CU. TSTMS ARE THE REAL STORY OF THE DAY. ALL BROUGHT TO US
COURTESY OF 576 DM UP LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF CATALINA ISLAND. A
VORT MAX WHIPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY TSTMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A TSTM
COULD FORM OVER L.A. COUNTY OR THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH.
THINGS CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING HOWEVER. THE UPPER LOW DROP A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD AND THE FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE
SSW. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FORM THE UPPER LOW
NORTHWARD INTO ERN LA COUNTY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE LOW HAS SETTLED
FURTHER SOUTH AND THE FLOW PATTERN GOES FROM NEAR SAN CLEMENTE TO
PASADENA TO LANCASTER. THIS FLOW PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY CONDUCIVE FOR
CONVECTION AND SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING. THE LA COASTS AND VLY
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WHILE THE MTNS AND DESERTS (AS WELL
AS THE VTA COUNTY MTNS) WILL HAVE A CHC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS FAIRLY SMALL. 578 HGTS...
THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY.

UNLESS SOME REALLY HUGE TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY WITH OUTFLOW POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION (UNLIKELY) THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS COVERING THE COASTS AND VLYS TONIGHT.
EXPECT GOOD CLEARING THURSDAY AND ALMOST ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY
BY NOON. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER
THE LA/VTA MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE SOME DUE TO HIGHER HGTS AND
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW BUT ALL TEMPS WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL NO LONGER INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. HGTS RISE
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK. IT WILL
MOST LIKELY SHRINK OUT OF THE VLYS BUT THERE IS A 30 OR 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SOME VLYS WILL HAVE ONE MORE NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS. MORE
WARMING WILL BRING MAX TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
EXTENDED MDLS HAVE BEEN TERRIBLE ALL SUMMER AND TONIGHTS RUN ARE
EQUALLY TROUBLED. YESTERDAYS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WAS DIFFERENT
FROM MONDAYS CULL AREA FCST AND TODAYS FORECAST CALLS FOR 4 DAYS OF
A LONG WAVE TROF. DID NOT MAKE A BUNCH OF CHANGED TO THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE THE THE RIDGE IS NO
LONGER IN THE PICTURE...BUT DID NOT MESS WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WHICH IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TRUE WILL BE DEEPER THAN FCST
AND WILL AFFECT THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1115Z...

LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION AROUND 3000 FEET
AND SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS INDICATE COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES
BLANKETED IN MVFR CIGS. EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST. RETURN
TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO CIG CATEGORY AND
STRATUS COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ANY IMPACTS FROM POSSIBLE CONVECTION
COULD GREATLY CHANGE THE STRATUS PICTURE.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF ORANGE COUNTY.
HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES...THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY TODAY. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AT TAF SITES IS LOW...SO ONLY ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A CB CLOUD GROUP THIS AFTERNOON FOR KPMD
AND KWJF.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND MAY NOT OCCUR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 10% CHANCE OF A TSTM
IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST/TIMING OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF TSTMS IMPACTING
THE AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

20/200 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED WIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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