Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 200451

1151 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridge continues to move off to the east allowing southerly
flow to move back in. So it will be a bit milder tonight with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s. With surface ridge still over far
southern portions of forecast area, plenty of low level moisture and
winds remaining light, could see some patchy fog over the eastern
Ozarks towards daybreak, so added mention.


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

In the meantime, next weather system to move in by Saturday
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading
southeast across region as cold front moves through. Models have
some timing differences, so for now only made minor adjustments to
the grids. Best chances of precipitation will be Saturday afternoon
and evening before tapering off Sunday morning. Exact location of
where activity will initiate hard to pin down as well. Could see
some activity in morning with more stuff firing up by afternoon, as
for where, it will depend on where the cold front is.

On Sunday after system exits, begin to cool back down as next ridge
of high pressure builds in. Cooler and drier weather to persist
through the middle of next week with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 50s. Then as ridge slides off, temperatures to moderate by the
end of the work week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Still expect fog to develop within the next few hours at KSUS and
KCPS. Visibilities may drop as low as IFR at times. Otherwise
still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along
a cold front that will drop southward across the area tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Have introduced VCTS at the terminals to
indicate the best timing for thunderstorms near the airports.
Winds will veer from southwest to northwest behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly VFR conditions until thunderstorms
move into the area along a cold front after 00Z. If thunderstorms
do move into the terminal, they may have MVFR conditions with
them. Winds will turn out of the southwest by 15Z, and then turn
out of the northwest behind the front on Saturday night.





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