Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 220803 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CONDS IN PERIODIC RAIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA (CURRENTLY RIGHT OVER THE DC METROS). NW WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

PERIODIC RAIN TODAY WITH ANY THUNDER ENDING BY MID MORNING. SCA
THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES. GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD
WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








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