Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KLWX 061923
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
223 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES WL BUILD ACRS THE CWFA TNGT...AND BE SHUNTED SWD TMRW AS S/WV
ENERGY AND SFC LOPRES DIVES ACRS THE GRTLKS. THE THERMAL TROF WL BE
OVER CWFA BTWN 00-06Z...AND THEN WL RETREAT. THUS...WL HV A GOOD
RADL COOLING NGT IMPEDED ONLY BY A TOUCH OF MID-LVL CLDCVR. WAA WL
HV BIGGEST IMPACT ON AREA TMRW. TEMPS ON COOL SIDE OF MOS FOR MIN-
T...BUT ACCEPTED MOS MEAN FOR MAXT TMRW. THAT MEANS TEMPS SAT SHUD
REACH THE 40S AREAWIDE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NRN MARYLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
IN THE METROS...PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT IF SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLIER
OR TRACKS FARTHER NORTH... A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SETTLES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. DOUBT WE/LL EVEN HV CIGS...BUT IF WE DO
IT/LL BE FM MID DECK. WNDS ALREADY LIGHT DUE TO HIPRES...BUT THE
NLY DRIFT WL GENERALLY CALM TNGT AND BECOME SLY 5-10 KT TMRW.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WX ON THE WATERS NEXT 24 HRS. NLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BECOME
LGT/VRBL TNGT AND SLY SAT. MAY HV A BIT OF CHANNELING ON THE MID
BAY SAT AFTN...BUT WITH COLD WATER HV CAPPED AT 15 KT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND
WESTERLY WINDS MAY PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WARMING TREND AS WELL AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LEAD TO
SNOW MELT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...SNOWMELT WILL BE SLOW AND WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING RIVER
LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

RECORD LOWS WERE SET THIS MRNG AT IAD /9/ AND BWI /13/.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/HAS/IMR
HYDROLOGY...HAS
CLIMATE...DFH/HTS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.