Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242329
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Visible satellite is showing MVFR CIGs over MAF which should
continue to stream across the TAF site and lower overnight. These
conditions will also spread to other locations, not lifting until
Monday afternoon. There will also be SHRA/TS overnight but there
is considerable uncertainty into the timing, location, and amount
of lightning that we will have so left out any mention of TS in
the TAFs at this time. Feel it is better to amend as needed rather
than issue blanket TEMPO groups for a long period of time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved from NV to UT over the
past 24 hours, and will continue to be the main influence on the
forecast into the extended.  Latest models open this feature and
move it to the upper Midwest/Canada by Tuesday, only to develop
another closed low over srn NV to replace it.  This will maintain a
wet pattern in SW flow aloft for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
for the next few days.

Closer to home, area radars show the tail end of last night`s
convection exiting the lwr Trans Pecos, and new development on the
slopes of the Davis Mtns.  Radar estimates that most rain fell on the
NW half of the CWA over the past 24 hours, plus a few cells over the
Big Bend Area.  Maximum radar totals were 5-6", but this was in the
sandhills, so very little flash flooding occurred.  Isolated pockets
of 1-2" fell further south, resulting in elevated flows on the Rio
Grande.

For tonight/Monday, areas out west are destabilizing rapidly w/full
insolation, and hi-res models suggest a repeat of last night.
Dewpoints in the 60s are backed up KATS/KGDP, and mesoanalysis shows
an axis of instability of 2000-3000 J/kg capes running N-S along the
TX/NM border.  Better deep-lyr shear is currently along the far west
zones, but this is forecast to move east overnight, enhancing
chances for a severe supercell or two.  We will mention this in the
HWO.  Further east, models hint at convection moving into the Big
Bend/lwr Trans Pecos overnight, and moving thru the eastern Permian
Basin/upper Colorado River Valley Monday...roughly in line w/the low-
lvl theta-e ridge.  The GEFS reinforces this, showing anomalies in
the National Water Model over the lwr Trans Pecos thru 00Z Tuesday.
All that said, w/saturated soils over the NW CWA, and expected
rainfall over the Big Bend overnight/Monday, we`ve expanded the FFA
thru 12Z Monday, and included all areas west of the Pecos.  What
falls over the next 12-18 hrs will largely determine where/when the
FFA needs to be extended, but the eastern half of the FA looks to be
the best candidate attm.

Chances of convection will remain high all week as the secondary
trough develops, keeping the region under SW flow aloft.  SE of Baja
del Sur, T.S. Pilar has developed and, although it looks to be short-
lived, may provide enough tropical moisture to be entrained into the
flow to further enhance rain chances.  Finally, a cold front is set
to arrive Tuesday to assist further.  This will keep temps below
normal into the extended.

In the extended, the secondary trough is forecast to move to the
Four Corners by late in the work-week, transitioning flow aloft from
SW to zonal.  After the cold front, low-lvl return flow quickly
resumes, keeping Gulf moisture in the area, aided by the LLJ every
night, for good chances of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  79  66  73 /  70  90  70  80
Carlsbad                       64  82  62  73 /  50  40  60  60
Dryden                         71  81  70  80 /  80  90  60  50
Fort Stockton                  68  82  66  76 /  50  70  30  60
Guadalupe Pass                 60  76  59  68 /  60  40  30  50
Hobbs                          63  77  61  69 /  60  70  70  60
Marfa                          61  78  58  74 /  60  60  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           68  79  65  74 /  70  80  70  70
Odessa                         68  79  65  73 /  60  70  70  60
Wink                           68  83  65  76 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10



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