Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 222314
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW



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