Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 211153 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
453 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...SKY IS CLEAR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH STRATUS CLOUDS BEYOND 80 NM OFFSHORE. IN SPITE OF
THIS A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS NOW AND POISED TO COME INLAND. HAVE GONE
AGAINST GUIDANCE AND KEPT OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS
MORNING.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW TODAY WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WILL HELP PULL A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. H7 WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS COULD PRESENT SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
15 PERCENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP ALONG THE COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARM AND DRY RIDGES
ESPECIALLY FOR SW OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE WARM AS H7 WINDS LINE UP WITH
NEAR SURFACE WIND OUT OF THE NE DIRECTION. THIS LINES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE CHETCO RIVER SO BROOKINGS COULD BE QUITE WARM ON
SATURDAY. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS SITUATION AND PERHAPS
INCREASE THE HIGHS FURTHER.

WE WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A VERY WARM CONDITION FROM MONDAY AT
LEAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
OUR AREA. MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW
A COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SO AT LEAST THE HOT TEMPERATURE SHOULDN`T STAY TOO LONG.
/FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE...PATCHY IFR FOG IS
EVIDENT IN SOME OF THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
THAT`S ABOUT IT. OVERALL, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS VFR AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST
WINDS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING KOTH AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR EXTENDING
INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY NEAR KRBG AFTER 09Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
FARTHER INLAND, INCLUDING AT KMFR AND KLMT. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 450 AM PDT WED 21 AUG 2014...CHOPPY SEAS WILL
PERSIST BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FERRELO TODAY,
BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS
WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ALL AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN
AGAIN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FB






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