Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02


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