Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV


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