Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 011721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1221 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATING TO INCREASE POPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST WASN`T
TOO FAR OFF WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT WANTED TO UPDATE TO TRY AND
PINPOINT THINGS LITTLE BETTER. LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS QUICKLY
ERODED AS PRECIP HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WILL SOON WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND REST
OF THE PLATEAU. WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO...MOST OF OUR CWA
SHOULD BE SEEING RAIN EXCEPT FOR MAYBE NETN AND SWVA WHERE PRECIP
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO WORK ITS WAY IN DUE TO SOME REMAINING
DRY AIR. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS STILL LOOK GOOD...INCLUDING
TEMPS. NEW ZONES ISSUED WITH ENHANCED POP WORDING.

.AVIATION...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL STREAM ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02/12Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF
CHA/TYS. LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING AT TRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  37  39  24 /  90 100  40   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  37  38  23 /  80 100  60   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  35  36  23 /  80 100  40   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  38  39  18 /  60 100  70  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR


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