Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 161916
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today into tomorrow)...
We continue to see mid level ridging over the area, similar to
what we saw yesterday, so in general, will continue with a mostly
persistence forecast when it comes to temperatures this afternoon
into tomorrow. Already seeing some scattered thunderstorms out
there, with the better chances expected to be in the higher
terrain of the area. With PW values pushing 2 inches in some
places we could see some of these storms produce brief heavy rain
with some isolated flooding possible. But due to the isolated to
scattered nature of this convection am not expecting widespread
flooding this afternoon/tonight. Showers will start to dissipate
with the setting sun, with another round of patchy fog possible in
the typical valley locations and places that receive abundant
rainfall this afternoon. Once again similar weather is expected
tomorrow with near normal temperatures and scattered showers and
thunderstorms once again.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...
A weak cold front will push through the Southern Appalachian
Region Thursday night into Friday. Abundant low level moisture
will be in place with PWs near 2 inches but the air mass will be
only weakly unstable. There is some upper level support but it is
not particularly impressive. So...overall will see a line of
convection move across the area in advance of the front but do not
anticipate much potential for strong or severe storms. Drier air
and surface high pressure moves in behind the exiting front late
Friday into Saturday. Models do show a short wave moving across
the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Much of the associated moisture and
energy should stay to our north and it should have minimal effect
on area weather. Low level moisture begins to return to the area
on Sunday so...may see normal summertime diurnal type convection
develop...mainly confined over higher elevations. For Monday...the
day of the eclipse...weak surface high pressure will be over the
general region providing a few clouds and isolated to scattered
diurnal convection is possible late in the afternoon. For Tuesday
and Wednesday...will move back to a more unsettle weather pattern.
A boundary will lift north into the area Tuesday with a cold
front approaching the area Wednesday for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  91  75  89 /  20  40  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  88  73  88 /  20  50  50  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  88  69  86 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

ABM/MJB



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