Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 121847
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
247 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA RADARS REVEAL SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER THE SUN SETS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE MORE ON SUNDAY...THINK THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF THE NATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG (FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) UPPER- LEVEL WINDS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT AN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BRING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE
NOTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...BEFORE IT PULLS THROUGH LATE
IN THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN.  ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THE EXITING FRONT.  IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE MRX CWA AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG IT...TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  93  72  91 /  10  20  20  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  92  70  90 /  10  20  30  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  92  70  90 /  10  20  30  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  90  65  88 /  10  20  40  60
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB



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